Just my two cents, but I'd imagine that Nintendo are savvy enough now not to fully show their hand by banning everyone immediately. One week after the release of SX there's no need for ban waves (so to speak); they could easily ban whomever has loaded backups (assuming their telemetry data is as competent as their content digital watermarking) in one wave.
My guess would be that they've banned a sub-section of offenders, all of which are a mixed bag in terms of rapsheets. They'll do the same in a few days, and then a few more, and so on. It'll cause doubt and confusion purely down to the timing of the ban-hammers dropping and make the reason for the bans almost impossible to narrow down. It costs them almost entirely no effort to do that, and will throw the community into almost constant confusion. Ultimately this helps Nintendo keep up with the scene as developers struggle to make sense of what is happening. Not being predictable is one of the first rules in the book of secops; it's hard to attack something when you can't rationalise the behaviour of a system or mechanism. Looks like they've read the book since the days of the Wii U and *DS.
If anyone is feeling lucky that they've not been banned so far, don't count your chickens just yet. I think we can all agree that Nintendo seem to be on-the-ball this time around.
SciresM was 100% accurate when he said (paraphrased) they're not fucking around this time. If you need online buy a clean Switch, ditch backups and cross your fingers, or take the hit with a smile.
Also, given that enunand will be a clone of your eMMC in a different partition (or possible in a dumped file image), and uses the same encryption keys etc, don't think Nintendo wouldn't be able to seek out and take a peek inside if they put a bit of effort into it. Whilst I concur it would be one of the "safer" options right now, it's not out of their reach. Given they've seen it all before with the *DS, I'd imagine that they've already considered that possibility and have ideas on how to detect, mitigate and punish EmuNAND users.
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