Hacking Gateway's actual profits

[Zidapi]

AKA, they just made shit up.

It's not baseless speculation though. It's reasonable assumptions based on available data and equitable analogues when actual data is unavailable.

This is the first time I've seen this article, and I'd been using a similar formula for the last few months to gauge Gateway's user base and earning potential.

tl;dr? Just because you lack the intelligence to make a reasonable hypothesis it doesn't mean others are just 'making shit up'.

I'd hypothesised that 1% of 3DS owners were within the 4.x range required for them to be able to use Gateway.

(May I say that 1% is an incredibly generous number to use in this formula, as it implies that there are 544,500 users out there running 4.5 or lower)

Realistically, it's unlikely that all 544,500 of them are using Gateway. But that was their potential install base anyway.

With the release of 3.x Ultra that potential install base has skyrocketed. It's difficult to estimate the adoption rate of new 3DS system software updates as Nintendo don't seem to make them as available as companies like Apple do.

So let's use Apple's stats as an equitable analogue for Nintendo's. Apple's adoption rates for iOS 6, 7 and 8 are 83%, 87%, and 69% (thus far) respectively.

(It's worth noting that as of January 15th that less than 3% of iOS users are using a system version older than the two most recent versions As I mentioned earlier, 1% was an incredibly generous approximation)

I'll be using the median of the three Apple adoption rates mentioned as an analogue Nintendo's unavailable statistics. That median is 79.6%, which translates to roughly 43,342,000 potential Gateway customers.

Just for fun; at approximately $80 a piece that's a gross potential earning of upwards of 3.4 billion dollars (!!!).

tl;dr
Just because you lack the intelligence to make a reasonable hypothesis it doesn't mean others are just 'making shit up'.

 

[satanicangel]

Why post if you have absolutely nothing to contribute? Please return to your mancave.

Wow great, your thread was seriously contributing! It is really helpful that I.. that I...
Ya you know, now we get to know the numbers, maybe we can .....? Stop buying GW? Ask them to lower their prices?
Wow this thread really contributes a lot..
(btw, his estimation is "a bit" off, I am 100% sure the manufacturing cost is not so low,and he totally missed their server part? I bet he is not doing any business, because once he started he will know it is not that simple. I am sure the same goes to you too.)

It's not baseless speculation though. It's reasonable assumptions based on available data and equitable analogues when actual data is unavailable.

.....

tl;dr? Just because you lack the intelligence to make a reasonable hypothesis it doesn't mean others are just 'making shit up'.

.....

tl;dr
Just because you lack the intelligence to make a reasonable hypothesis it doesn't mean others are just 'making shit up'.

Please learn more before you say it is a reasonable assumption. How REASONABLE it is if he never actually go and research it BY HIMSELF? If he made an exact non working replica of GW(using wholesale price to buy), I will say it IS reasonable.

And btw, the correct term for your 79.6% is MEAN, not MEDIAN. Learn maths.

 

[Nightwish]

Just for fun; at approximately $80 a piece that's a gross potential earning of upwards of 3.4 billion dollars (!!!).

tl;dr
Just because you lack the intelligence to make a reasonable hypothesis it doesn't mean others are just 'making shit up'.

tl;dr - Talking out of your ass is ok if it's me.

 

[satel]

supercard team probably made more than $11 million as they've been around for many years now but i think gateway with n3ds support will soon become richest flash card team ever.

 

[bendrr]

Off topic but I remember when satellite dbs pirating was at it's highest point, people estimated the sales in the 10's of millions in hardware devices. Nowhere near it. The only 10'S of millions to be made was by the dbs companies suing manufacturers I think. Maybe some urban legends trying to start up here too?

Just for fun; at approximately $80 a piece that's a gross potential earning of upwards of 3.4 billion dollars (!!!).

wow, I just quit my job and applied with gateway.

 

[netovsk]

That's 11 million LOST SALES for poor Nintendo!

Not at all.

Many people wouldn't even considering spending money on a console if they had to pay 50$ for each game.

Some of the people who bought it so they can pirate could consider going partially legit on a game they love. So nintendo makes more money than they would otherwise.

Piracy isn't all that bad for them, they just have to keep it at controlled levels.

And it's Nintendo own fault

http://www.ign.com/articles/2011/11/25/gabe-says-piracy-isnt-about-price

As someone who lives in a country where piracy always been a huge problem, I must say this is accurate. I see a lot of friends buying games from Steam/Sony because their services and dedication for Latin America are so great. Meanwhile Nintendo is not only providing bad services, but they are outright ignoring Latin America. (They even ceased operations in Brazil recently)

eShop works fine for me, I can pay for games in br dilmas no problem.

About consoles and hardware most people end up buying from paraguay through smugglers anyways, why would you pay 2-3 times more for a console than you could.

I believe the only nintendo mistake on that part is not giving a serious price cut on eShop games for us, since there are no more retailers to protect.

 

[RodrigoDavy]

eShop works fine for me, I can pay for games in br dilmas no problem.

About consoles and hardware most people end up buying from paraguay through smugglers anyways, why would you pay 2-3 times more for a console than you could.

I believe the only nintendo mistake on that part is not giving a serious price cut on eShop games for us, since there are no more retailers to protect.

You just got lucky your bank works with 3ds eshop As for Wii U owners they don't even had this option because there's no brazilian eshop at all to use.
At the 3ds eshop games are so expensive it's actually easier to find a lower price at retail than waiting for a promotion. They don't give us fair prices, they don't reward people who buy their games nor they try to fidelize their clients. I love Nintendo, but they need to learn how to create a more inviting ecosystem

 

[thorasgar]

You just got lucky your bank works with 3ds eshop As for Wii U owners they don't even had this option because there's no brazilian eshop at all to use.
At the 3ds eshop games are so expensive it's actually easier to find a lower price at retail than waiting for a promotion. They don't give us fair prices, they don't reward people who buy their games nor they try to fidelize their clients. I love Nintendo, but they need to learn how to create a more inviting ecosystem

Never going to happen.

 

[eriols]

eShop works fine for me, I can pay for games in br dilmas no problem.

About consoles and hardware most people end up buying from paraguay through smugglers anyways, why would you pay 2-3 times more for a console than you could.

I believe the only nintendo mistake on that part is not giving a serious price cut on eShop games for us, since there are no more retailers to protect.

btw just wondering, I read that brazil government is slapping a very high tax rate for console games, how do gamers buy games in brazil? in indonesia, the games are imported from singapore, still expensive but at least there are some ways to buy genuine software. I occasionally buy games from play-asia though, and some US stores that offer free shipping.

 

[netovsk]

btw just wondering, I read that brazil government is slapping a very high tax rate for console games, how do gamers buy games in brazil? in indonesia, the games are imported from singapore, still expensive but at least there are some ways to buy genuine software. I occasionally buy games from play-asia though, and some US stores that offer free shipping.

It isn't that expensive, it's kind of an exaggeration. Official PS4 costs ~1.500 USD but you can get it smuggled from paraguay for 600.

Games go for 40 - 70 USD.

It's just that minimum wage here is around 300 USD that's why people feel everything is so expensive.

For instance, if you work on walmart here buying a chevy camaro would mean 20 years wage while in the US it'd more like 20 months.

But yeah console gaming is getting more and more niche every day here.

I'll take one of the biggest brazilian retailers and see for how much last of us PS3 goes.

http://www.submarino.com.br/produto/113399581/game-the-last-of-us-ps3?ranking=1&p=last of us&typeclick=3&ac_pos=header&origem=ac

99,90 BRL, which is roughly 38 USD. Not as expensive as some may think.

 

[jrshankill]

good for them, making money... isn't that what a business is about?
good marketing to get people hyped.

Previous scenes were never about profit. Dreamcast, PSP etc. That is why I support CFW more than any card manufacturers.

 

[Danjal]

That's 11 million LOST SALES for poor Nintendo!

Only if people would've otherwise spent that money on Nintendo - which in all probability they would not have.
So, its no lost sales for Nintendo.

Lesson learned: Potential sales and profit are not the same as actual sales and profit.
Theoretically every single person in the world that does not purchase Nintendo's products - but spends their money on other things contribute to lost sales.
That PS4 you bought? Lost sales for Nintendo. That burger you're eating? Lost sales for Nintendo... Because you *COULD* have spent the money buying something from Nintendo instead! Poor Nintendo... They could've had it all... If only potential sales were actual sales.

 

[satanicangel]

Previous scenes were never about profit. Dreamcast, PSP etc. That is why I support CFW more than any card manufacturers.

Because in previous scene there were no selfish people that hide their own work from public.

 

[ody81]

Previous scenes were never about profit. Dreamcast, PSP etc. That is why I support CFW more than any card manufacturers.

Those scenes had willing devs and no 'my morals is correct' crap though.

And this scene isn't about profit, it's about people whining about piracy and nobody making a free solution because they don't like piracy.
Bizarre.

Gateway are about profit, but they're a business, not scene devs.

 

[s-arash]

i dont care how much does gateway team earns from gateway3ds

but the gateway3ds is a DRM Card , nothing more , and its such a shame
it remindes me trueblue on ps3

when you pay for sth like cobra ode, sky3ds, ds flash cards, modchips and other products like these , you know that the hardware is required
but gateway3ds card is not required at all , it does nothing right now , everything that gateway launcher does can be done without any hardware or flashcard , gateway3ds is just shitty drm card
and we can't do anything else right now cause nothing gives us the features that gateway3ds gives us , maybe wait for yifanlu to fully reverse gateway launcher and maybe someone can make drm free launcher from it

 

[Zidapi]

Please learn more before you say it is a reasonable assumption. How REASONABLE it is if he never actually go and research it BY HIMSELF? If he made an exact non working replica of GW(using wholesale price to buy), I will say it IS reasonable.

And btw, the correct term for your 79.6% is MEAN, not MEDIAN. Learn maths.

I can't speak to the validity of his estimations on manufacturing and other expenses as I know nothing of these things. Which is precisely why my final total was gross and not a net value.

Good catch on the mean/median thing, I can't believe I missed that when proofreading. I'd say it's more English I have problems with than math