Except it's a fact that either Secretary Clinton or Donald Trump is going to win the election. To vote for someone other than these two candidates is to care more about making a statement than who actually wins, which is definitely one's prerogative. I care who wins the election, so I would vote for Secretary Clinton even if I were a fan of Jill Stein (I'm not). A person cannot vote for Jill Stein while also claiming to care who actually wins the election.2. Depends for many people the alternatives are
Jill Stein a progressive who deeply cares and fights for progressive causes or Dont vote which has appeals (especially if you live in a state where the electoral vote is almost gaurented to go one way. But again this is a point we dis agree on since I do not believe in the "lesser of evil"/binary ideologue. Oh well
First, you're right that by election day, it is very possible if not likely that Governor Johnson will take more votes from Donald Trump than Secretary Clinton. However, I was citing the inarguable truth about the current state of the polls, which show Governor Johnson taking more votes from likely Clinton voters than likely Trump voters. Consistently, Clinton's numbers are the ones that fall when a two-candidate race is turned into a three-candidate race, not Trump's. However, I think this is very likely to change as we move past the conventions and towards the general election. Everyday, Clinton is consolidating more and more Bernie supporters. Only time will tell.4. I strongly disagree here. Sure Johnson will probably get some sanders supporters but overall he is getting way more support from conservatives then he is progressives. Look at his endorsements they all are from people who indentify as conservative or who generally support 3rd parties, practically no well known progressives or progressive groups are giving him favor. Ultiamatly I feel he is going to end up with more Never Trump people then people who support Sanders.I still Highly doubt that voting Stein or Johnson will cause Trump to win much like how Nader did not cause Gore to lose or Perot did not cause Bush to lose.That type of Perot support is what I expect to be what happens for Johnson.
Second, you're correct that Perot did nothing to substantively affect the election because he took votes equally from the major party candidates. However, Nader took votes disproportionately from Gore, and Gore would have won the election if only a fraction of Nader supporters had voted for Gore in Florida alone. The 2000 election is a great example of a third party candidate unnecessarily splitting the Democratic vote and handing the election to the Republican Party. Hopefully history does not repeat itself.
On a slightly unrelated note, it is my opinion that the Green Party, in addition to the Constitution Party and its offshoots, are pointless. They're trolls who come out of the woodwork every four years to "run" for president without doing the work it takes to become reputable political parties (e.g. running for and winning lower elections first). There's also no real niche to fill for these parties, as they're essentially Democrats and Republicans that are further to the left and right respectively. They would be more likely to succeed if they re-assimilated into the Democratic and Republican parties and advocated for their policies there (a la Senator Sanders). The Green Party, for example, would move the Democratic Party to the left, and they would win more elections. Unnecessarily splitting the Democratic vote with no potential for gain is just silly.
Please note that my above criticisms of third party candidates don't extend to the Libertarian Party. While I disagree with the Libertarian Party, they definitely have their own niche to fill. They also regularly pursue lower elections in an effort to assert themselves as a legitimate political party.