I'm here to shit on the existence of this thread.
I think polling isn't worth stressing over in this election. Not because it's inherently wrong, but instead because of a few particular facts about this election that make it more likely noise than signal.
First, the candidates are very obviously avoiding dissemination of their intended policies, to the extent such policies exist. So there isn't new, non-tabloid information affecting the polls-over-time. What 'policies' are announced are really straightforward pandering rather than something that translates into a bill that will (ever) be passed through Congress. We're left with gaffe-of-the-week reactions from the public instead of perceptible shifts based on something more likely to survive through the election (like such voters' opinions about newly announced actual policies).
Second, both sides have huge incentives to push a narrative that the polls are 'close'. Trump, because he's Mr. 46% (ceiling) so the mere act of self-inflation coincides with portraying a close race.
Democrats are historically considered to be lower-propensity voters. In the 2016 election, their hagiography is that Democrats disproportionately stayed home or voted third party instead of choking down Hillary - because they thought she had it in the bag. Democrats are disproportionately represented among the media, including in polling. So, to the extent there's editorial influence, it's going to be to pump up Trump, in order to prevent complacency among their voters, to prevent a repeat of (their perception of) what happened in 2016.
Third, I could talk about both campaigns' strategic mistakes that create incentives to skew polls but that'd turn into substantive policy debate that's likely to distract from my main goal here.
I am tipping my hand here, I think Trump is the weaker candidate. But for all these reasons the polling isn't likely to tell us if that's true, or by how much, actually.
If you want to shit on each other for general partisan reasons, I recommend making a more germane thread. Don't let polls get you down, or drive the shitting and counter-shitting.
