[POLL] Who are/would you vote for United States President?

Lacius · Sep 25, 2016

grossaffe said:
I have read your posts and seen that you clearly care and it is relevant.

I think I'm the arbiter of whether or not I care about something, so forgive me if I cannot take you seriously.

@RevPokemon
With regard to whether or not I think one should be compelled to vote for one of the two-parties instead of a third-party, I think if there's a difference of 10 points or less between the two major candidates, that's enough to be compelled to vote for Trump or Hillary as the smart thing to do if one cares who wins between the two. Personally, I would always vote for one of the two major party candidates if I had a preference for one of them over the other, even in a solid blue or red state.

RevPokemon · Sep 25, 2016

Lacius said:
I think I'm the arbiter of whether or not I care about something, so forgive me if I cannot take you seriously.

@RevPokemon
With regard to whether or not I think one should be compelled to vote for one of the two-parties instead of a third-party, I think if there's a difference of 10 points or less between the two major candidates, I think that's enough to be compelled to vote for Trump or Hillary as the smart thing to do if one cares who wins between the two. Personally, I would always vote for one of the two major party candidates if I had a preference for one of them over the other, even in a solid blue or red state.

10%? That seems a bit on the high side personally if it is during November. I personally would say it is MOE(maybe plus 1 or 2%)

But hey subjectively I feel 5 aggregate with a decent MOE is pretty solid come November.

Lacius · Sep 25, 2016

RevPokemon said:
10%? That seems a bit on the high side personally if it is during November. I personally would say it is MOE(maybe plus 1 or 2%)

But hey subjectively I feel 5 aggregate with a decent MOE is pretty solid come November.

I think 0-5% is close at this stage, and 5-10% is close-ish. Keep in mind that when we talk about a candidate being ahead by 5% in the polls, that translates to roughly a 25% chance of victory, which is pretty significant.

sarkwalvein · Sep 25, 2016

I see the feeling of frustration and subsequent tantrums (AKA butthurt) is strong in this thread... but why? Did something actually happen?

grossaffe · Sep 25, 2016

Lacius said:
I think I'm the arbiter of whether or not I care about something, so forgive me if I cannot take you seriously.

I won't be offended if you do not take me seriously. I certainly don't take you seriously.

RevPokemon · Sep 25, 2016

Lacius said:
I think 0-5% is close at this stage, and 5-10% is close-ish. Keep in mind that when we talk about a candidate being ahead by 5% in the polls, that translates to roughly a 25% chance of victory, which is pretty significant.

At this stage? I am speaking during November for the polls. Plus the electoral college has to be considered in terms of how it is. I think come November it will be clearer.

Lacius · Sep 25, 2016

RevPokemon said:
At this stage? I am speaking during November for the polls. Plus the electoral college has to be considered in terms of how it is. I think come November it will be clearer.

Oh, I agree that if we're talking about a difference of 5 percentage points in the polls in November, it's probably not that close. I would still argue that it's close enough to not vote third-party, however.

In other news, the first presidential debate of the general election is tomorrow, and people are predicting an audience of around 80 million people. We're just a little over six weeks away from the election, and Clinton is currently ahead of Trump in the national polls by a mere 1.8 percentage points. If the election were held today, she would likely win narrowly with around 272 electoral votes. In other words, this debate is going to be make or break for both candidates. Predictions?

Viri · Sep 25, 2016

Debate is tomorrow, get hyped!

I pwned U! · Sep 25, 2016

Lacius said:
Predictions?

Lots of protesting and demonstrations for open debates, which 76% of the American people support (myself included).

Hundreds of supporters of Dr. Jill Stein will be attending the venue of the first presidential debate at Hofstra. They will seek to escort Stein to the debate venue. If she is prevented from participating in the debate, supporters will hold a "People's Debate" outside of the Hofstra venue. Some have pledged to engage in dignified non-violent civil disobedience as a way to protest the Commission on Presidential Debates.

During the televised debate, voters will be able to see Stein participate in real time using an unprecedented and innovative social media experience presented in partnership with Twitter on Periscope. (http://twitter.com/drjillstein) She will also be livestreaming her responses via Facebook Live on her Facebook page (http://facebook.com/drjillstein). This online initiative will ensure that Stein reaches the largest audience reached by a third party candidate since Ross Perot was included in the debates in 1992. In effect, Jill Stein will use new media and technology to literally "insert" herself into the debate process.

The Stein/Baraka campaign agrees with 76% of US voters who, according to a USA Today poll, favor four candidates being included in the debate. They disagree with the Democratic and Republican controlled commission which is ensuring their parties do not have to debate other candidates.

SCHEDULE OF EVENTS - SEPTEMBER 26, 2016
(all times are approximate as there are many spontaneous factors that can change the timing)

4:30 Buses of supporters arrive at Hofstra

5:00 "Let Jill Debate!" demonstration begins

5:30 Dr. Stein holds "People's Debate" outside Hofstra gates

Protests may continue until approximately 7:00 PM.

9:00 Dr. Stein participates in the debate in real time via Periscope and on Twitter.com (http://twitter.com/drjillstein) and via Facebook Live on her official page (http://facebook.com/drjillstein). Watch parties across the country will be listed here: jill2016.com/grassroots

http://www.jill2016.com/hofstra_debate

RevPokemon · Sep 25, 2016

Lacius said:
Oh, I agree that if we're talking about a difference of 5 percentage points in the polls in November, it's probably not that close. I would still argue that it's close enough to not vote third-party, however.

OK then. Disagree but hey oh well.

Lacius said:
In other news, the first presidential debate of the general election is tomorrow, and people are predicting an audience of around 80 million people. We're just a little over six weeks away from the election, and Clinton is currently ahead of Trump in the national polls by a mere 1.8 percentage points. If the election were held today, she would likely win narrowly with around 272 electoral votes.

Really? Where did you get those numbers as for the 272 EC votes? For what it is worth with regard to the EC votes Clinton has an easier time to gain them then Trump does. But oh well.

Lacius said:
In other words, this debate is going to be make or break for both candidates. Predictions?

It is hard to predict BUT I think the big question is how Trump will do 1v1? In the GOP debates it was very much Trump as the star with others getting much less attention unlike where Clinton will get a large amount of it as well. He might struggle with this format which could help Clinton, but he could very easily win if Clinton is stupid enough to go to his level.

Second is of course is whether the winner is the one who did best the whole time or for a short period? During the GOP debates Trump was clearly not the best at debating compared to Cruz or Rubio but Trump had plenty of good short moments or missteps by the others that ultimately helped him (New York Values anyone?). I could easily see that happening to Clinton if she comes across as arrogant or as an asshole.

Ultimately I could see either side as the winner with this in mind. For myself and other Johnson supporters we are probably going to start some stuff on twitter to try to get attention for the cause but I would be lying if I said that I won't find the debate interesting myself.

Lacius · Sep 25, 2016

I pwned U! said:
Lots of protesting and demonstrations for open debates, which 76% of the American people support (myself included).

Regardless of whether or not we think Stein and Johnson should be in the debate, the rules to get in were clear. To ignore the rules and arbitrarily let some candidates who didn't meet the criteria into the debate is to play favorites. It would be ridiculous. It would also be silly to let a candidate into the debate because his or her butthurt supporters were kicking and screaming loudly enough.

RevPokemon said:
Really? Where did you get those numbers as for the 272 EC votes? For what it is worth with regard to the EC votes Clinton has an easier time to gain them then Trump does. But oh well.

If you look at the aggregate poll numbers, Clinton is losing in Nevada, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa. If we put those states into Trump's corner with the solid red states, the remaining states where Clinton is ahead totals 272 electoral votes.

Obviously, this is just a snapshot of the state of the race currently. Things can change wildly one way or the other, particularly after the debate.

RevPokemon · Sep 25, 2016

Lacius said:
Regardless of whether or not we think Stein and Johnson should be in the debate, the rules to get in were clear. To ignore the rules and arbitrarily let some candidates who didn't meet the criteria into the debate is to play favorites. It would be ridiculous. It would also be silly to let a candidate into the debate because his or her butthurt supporters were kicking and screaming loud enough.

I have supported this cause very much and have done what I can to help it. But one aspect is not to get Johnson or Stein in but to protest and discuss the flaws with the rules and the system so that in the future they could get in.

Lacius said:
If you look at the aggregate poll numbers, Clinton is losing in Nevada, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa. If we put those states into Trump's corner with the solid red states, the remaining states where Clinton is ahead totals 272 electoral votes.

Interesting. Well it looks like then Clinton has a pretty solid path since those are all big states and Trump would have to win in a left tilted state.

Lacius · Sep 25, 2016

RevPokemon said:
I have supported this cause very much and have done what I can to help it. But one aspect is not to get Johnson or Stein in but to protest and discuss the flaws with the rules and the system so that in the future they could get in.

I can sympathize with this in principle, but the part about trying to be escorted into the debate implies of a level of entitlement that Stein certainly does not have, and it's embarrassing. See above about how debate rules can't be bent without arbitrarily playing favorites. I'm perfectly fine with a discussion on whether the 15% criteria is fair for the next election.

RevPokemon said:
Interesting. Well it looks like then Clinton has a pretty solid path since those are all big states and Trump would have to win in a left tilted state.

Yes, I would much rather be Clinton right now than Trump. If the election were held today, the tipping point state (i.e. the state with the narrowest margin that gives the victor the 270th electoral vote and effectively decides the election) would likely be Colorado, and Clinton is ahead there by 2.1%, even during this time after her weekend of hell when she's polling at her worst. However, that's still a little too close for comfort. If Trump gains ground in Colorado, he wins the electoral college.

RevPokemon · Sep 25, 2016

Lacius said:
I can sympathize with this in principle, but the part about trying to be escorted into the debate implies of a level of entitlement that Stein certainly does not have. I'm perfectly fine with a discussion on whether the 15% criteria is fair for the next election.

Agreed. Hopefully this will come to changes on the CPD rules which in the future will help change the political landscape.

Lacius said:
Yes, I would much rather be Clinton right now than Trump. If the election were held today, the tipping point state (i.e. the state with the narrowest margin that gives the victor the 270th electoral vote and effectively decides the election) would likely be Colorado, and Clinton is ahead there by 2.1% even during this time after her weekend of hell when she's polling at her worst. However, that's still a little too close for comfort. If Trump gains ground in Colorado, he wins the electoral college.

For what it is worth it still helps Clinton in that alot more has to go wrong for her then it does for trump to lose. Looking at those states the only ones currently Blue that I could see go red are New Hampshire and Colorado although Colorado matters more. Well Clinton could lose Florida, NC, Ohio, Iowa, NH, and Nevada and still win. Wow. Now there are also a bit of red states that could go blue. I mean NC is relatively close so that could happen. As could Nevada which is very likely. Arizona is very red but if you had a high Hispanic showing then she could win although it would be hard. Georgia is the same as if white centrist and ROC republicans (the poster of Never Trumpers) stay home and black turnout is high then that is a shot. Regardless Clinton has an easier path to that 270 since everything would have to go wrong while everything would have to go right for Trump.

Lacius · Sep 25, 2016

RevPokemon said:
For what it is worth it still helps Clinton in that alot more has to go wrong for her then it does for trump to lose. Looking at those states the only ones currently Blue that I could see go red are New Hampshire and Colorado although Colorado matters more. Well Clinton could lose Florida, NC, Ohio, Iowa, NH, and Nevada and still win. Wow. Now there are also a bit of red states that could go blue. I mean NC is relatively close so that could happen. As could Nevada which is very likely. Arizona is very red but if you had a high Hispanic showing then she could win although it would be hard. Georgia is the same as if white centrist and ROC republicans (the poster of Never Trumpers) stay home and black turnout is high then that is a shot. Regardless Clinton has an easier path to that 270 since everything would have to go wrong while everything would have to go right for Trump.

Right. Clinton has a higher chance of taking Nevada, Iowa, Florida, or North Carolina (especially Nevada) than Trump does of taking Colorado.

RevPokemon · Sep 25, 2016

Lacius said:
Right. Clinton has a higher chance of taking Nevada, Iowa, Florida, or North Carolina (especially Nevada) than Trump does of taking Colorado.

Plus if this map was true then the only one I could see Trump winning is New Hampshire or Maine but to win either one of those and then win all of the others would be very hard which is why Clinton has such an easier time. Hell we could have Trump win the popular vote yet lose the EC which I think is semi reasonable.

Lacius · Sep 25, 2016

RevPokemon said:
Plus if this map was true then the only one I could see Trump winning is New Hampshire or Maine but to win either one of those and then win all of the others would be very hard which is why Clinton has such an easier time.

Trump appears much more likely to take Colorado or New Hampshire before taking Maine. In other words, if Trump wins Maine, another state probably put him over the top before that.

RevPokemon said:
Hell we could have Trump win the popular vote yet lose the EC which I think is semi reasonable.

It's more likely that Clinton will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. She has consistently been ahead in national polls, but the gerrymandering that is individual states could put Trump over the top in the Electoral College without the popular vote shifting too much.

According to FiveThirtyEight, there is a 1.8% chance that Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, but there's a 7.7% chance that Clinton wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.

RevPokemon · Sep 25, 2016

Lacius said:
Trump appears much more likely to take Colorado or New Hampshire before taking Maine. In other words, if Trump wins Maine, another state probably put him over the top before that.

True enough as Maine is left of NH politically.

Lacius said:
It's more likely that Clinton will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. She has consistently been ahead in national polls, but the gerrymandering that is individual states could put Trump over the top in the Electoral College without the popular vote shifting too much.

According to FiveThirtyEight, there is a 1.8% chance that Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, but there's a 7.7% chance that Clinton wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.

Well with many of the large blue states that does seem reasonable but I still think regardless the way the EC is in that it is harder for a Republican to win is what I was thinking.
The real question as to what is more likely, excess blue votes in red states or red votes in blue states? Retrospectively it is easier for the democrats to have this happen as most Red states have very Left areas like San Antonio, New Orleans, and Atlanta where a large some of people vote while you do not really have it the other way around.

Lacius · Sep 25, 2016

RevPokemon said:
Well with many of the large blue states that does seem reasonable but I still think regardless the way the EC is in that it is harder for a Republican to win is what I was thinking.
The real question as to what is more likely, excess blue votes in red states or red votes in blue states? Retrospectively it is easier for the democrats to have this happen as most Red states have very Left areas like San Antonio, New Orleans, and Atlanta where a large some of people vote while you do not really have it the other way around.

I trust FiveThirtyEight's math on which is more likely. Regardless, both are reasonably possible.

RevPokemon · Sep 26, 2016

Lacius said:
I trust FiveThirtyEight's math on which is more likely. Regardless, both are reasonably possible.

Well back to the debate. I gave my opinion out what could happen so what do you personally predict?

Edit: also thoughts on the fact checking durring debates?

[POLL] Who are/would you vote for United States President?

Who are/would you vote for United States President?

Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

Donald Trump (Republican)

Gary Johnson (Libertarian)

Jill Stein (Green)

Other

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