UPDATE: Regarding the recent 3DS banwave

Michierusama · May 28, 2017

My system is so stable that is full of horses right now. [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

BARNWEY · May 28, 2017

Slartibartfast42 said:
People who pirate games don't pirate all their games. I've pirated a few games to try them out. I don't really play them. The games I most liked I paid for. Pissing off customers is expensive. Without piracy to help me get a better deal, I would seriously consider not being a customer at all. Would they rather have me buy 10 games and pirate 20, or buy zero games?

The marginal cost to support the pirates is very small. Most of the costs are fixed. and what like 98% of the variable costs are due to legitimate use. I said what you do is you give the pirated user a DEGRADED experience, instead of ZERO experience. The amount of revenue generated from people upgrading out of the degraded experience should (I predict, they could try to run models to see if i'm right) exceed the cost of providing such an option.

Piracy can actually increase overall revenue, but that's a separate discussion. The real world is often very counterintuitive. That's why smart people are paid a lot of money to figure things out that are not so obvious. Microsoft is actually a huge benefactor of piracy, but stay on topic.

Look, if people were stealing $200 worth of stuff from your store every month, but a security guard costs $500 a month, would you get the guard? Now, what if they were stealing $600? But, they also caused an increase in revenue of $300 due to stuff like recommendations to other people and purchases while shoplifting? There's a balance between just how hard a store should try to prevent shoplifting. Imagine if Walmart started patting everyone down or demanding to see your receipt everytime you left like CostCo. They'd lose more legitimate customers than they'd save in shoplifting. I may put up with that at Costco, but not Walmart.

Make the pirated version worse. People are more likely to pay to fix a pirated version than to pay for a game they can't play in the first place. CONVERT the pirates, don't punish. Imagine if Nintendo made it so that free copies of Zelda can only have 5 hearts. People would get the game because it was free. Many would get addicted, then they would pay for the game. Only a few would just try to get by on 5 hearts. Only the hardcore players with a lot of skill think that is fun, and those people would buy the game anyways. You can even delay the free version by a month. Why don't they do stuff like this? Are they afraid someone will figure out how to hack it? So what? The lost sales of the few who would bother is less than the extra sales such a system generates, right?

Think BIG PICTURE.

If companies made more/better demos, I guarantee that piracy would go down quite a bit...

Quantumcat · May 28, 2017

Slartibartfast42 said:
People who pirate games don't pirate all their games. I've pirated a few games to try them out. I don't really play them. The games I most liked I paid for. Pissing off customers is expensive. Without piracy to help me get a better deal, I would seriously consider not being a customer at all. Would they rather have me buy 10 games and pirate 20, or buy zero games?

The marginal cost to support the pirates is very small. Most of the costs are fixed. and what like 98% of the variable costs are due to legitimate use. I said what you do is you give the pirated user a DEGRADED experience, instead of ZERO experience. The amount of revenue generated from people upgrading out of the degraded experience should (I predict, they could try to run models to see if i'm right) exceed the cost of providing such an option.

Piracy can actually increase overall revenue, but that's a separate discussion. The real world is often very counterintuitive. That's why smart people are paid a lot of money to figure things out that are not so obvious. Microsoft is actually a huge benefactor of piracy, but stay on topic.

Look, if people were stealing $200 worth of stuff from your store every month, but a security guard costs $500 a month, would you get the guard? Now, what if they were stealing $600? But, they also caused an increase in revenue of $300 due to stuff like recommendations to other people and purchases while shoplifting? There's a balance between just how hard a store should try to prevent shoplifting. Imagine if Walmart started patting everyone down or demanding to see your receipt everytime you left like CostCo. They'd lose more legitimate customers than they'd save in shoplifting. I may put up with that at Costco, but not Walmart.

Make the pirated version worse. People are more likely to pay to fix a pirated version than to pay for a game they can't play in the first place. CONVERT the pirates, don't punish. Imagine if Nintendo made it so that free copies of Zelda can only have 5 hearts. People would get the game because it was free. Many would get addicted, then they would pay for the game. Only a few would just try to get by on 5 hearts. Only the hardcore players with a lot of skill think that is fun, and those people would buy the game anyways. You can even delay the free version by a month. Why don't they do stuff like this? Are they afraid someone will figure out how to hack it? So what? The lost sales of the few who would bother is less than the extra sales such a system generates, right?

Think BIG PICTURE.

I thoroughly agree with you. For example, I use Netflix and not because I care about the movie/TV industry. I used to download torrents, but paying $10/month to avoid the inconvenience (you have to work out what you want to watch, find it, download it, download another one when it turns out the one you downloaded had Nvidia protection so there's no sound, etc) is worthwhile to me. If Nintendo had a system where I could pay $20/month and play all the games I wanted I would do that rather than install CFW and pirate, cause it is just easier. I'll go to a little inconvenience to save a lot of money but I definitely won't go to a lot of inconvenience to save a little bit of money.
In fact I was really sure that the Wii U dump of Breath of the wild was going to have some sort of timebomb in it that effectively just made it a demo. I think this would be clever - if you could get that file into as many download places as possible, people might not be able to tell the difference, and then do they really want to go and try to find another copy and start the game again, only to find it is another stubbed version? No, it would be easier to buy it. Especially if they make it so it is really easy to carry your save file over to a paid version.

Platinum Lucario · May 28, 2017

I'm still quite puzzled over my ban on my New 3DS console. If anyone could use some kind of packet sniffer, like WireShark and used a decryption key to decrypt the packets, then we'd know what system information is being sent to CDN servers.

skapista · May 28, 2017

Platinum Lucario said:
I'm still quite puzzled over my ban on my New 3DS console. If anyone could use some kind of packet sniffer, like WireShark and used a decryption key to decrypt the packets, then we'd know what system information is being sent to CDN servers.

AFAIK someone did that and got the packages of what does the friend list send but got nothing too promising, I think it may be some kind of server side request, a scheduled request of some info.

JManUtd · May 28, 2017

Any news? Did anyone get banned today?

A Plus Ric · May 28, 2017

Slartibartfast42 said:
Look, if people were stealing $200 worth of stuff from your store every month, but a security guard costs $500 a month, would you get the guard? Now, what if they were stealing $600? But, they also caused an increase in revenue of $300 due to stuff like recommendations to other people and purchases while shoplifting?
Think BIG PICTURE.

If you catch the 200 dollar stealing amounts a month with your 500 a month guard, you prob going to gain a ton pending on how many stole. It's called suing someone if you catch them. Whathe you think they catch you and let you GO? Shut. I wonder y stores have security guards and cameras, what a waste of money............ you just want a reason to say pirating is okay.....but if your friend stole your 3ds, you find out, you gonna get it back right? Or is it ok, and he can keep it, cuz he didn't get all your games just most of them.....

Suji_Pyo · May 28, 2017

skapista said:
AFAIK someone did that and got the packages of what does the friend list send but got nothing too promising, I think it may be some kind of server side request, a scheduled request of some info.

If we know the server address we could block it in our routers.

Pluupy · May 28, 2017

This banwave has been great.

It's really brought the community together and brought all you smug fucks back down to earth post-B9S release.

Truly shows how fragile this community has been in Nintendo's hands all along. This would make a good plot for a tv show.

Slartibartfast42 · May 28, 2017

Futurdreamz said:
How do you know how much of their server use is pirated? It's possible that a small number of users account for 99% of their server use, and a disproportionate amount of them pirated the game. And 1% can still be a large number to an business. If it costs $1,000,000/year to run their servers, then piracy at 1% would eat $10,000/year, something that an accountant would take notice of

In general, piracy is a fairly rare phenomenon. If the homebrew rate is less than 5% what do you think the piracy rate is? For online games, the piracy rate is going to be small.

Next, you aren't calculating those costs correctly. Accountants aren't that smart. Beancounters often make horrible decisions. Much of that theoretical one million dollars are fixed costs. For example, the 100k you pay the server admin. He gets paid the same 100k no matter how many users there are. What's the marginal cost of supporting pirated users? Meaning, without the pirated users, how much would the costs drop? If you let your girlfriend live with you, your food bill will go way up. Your energy bill will go up a bit, but not double. Your internet and cable bill will likely stay the same. Your rent may stay the same or go up slightly depending on your lease. So now in your example, the marginal costs are less than $10,000/year. So let's say $3000/year.

You aren't done here though. What are your costs to stop the piracy? If it costs them $1000 to stop it, now the net good is down to 2000/year. But what are the other costs? Less piracy results in less good will and indirect sales. Because I showed my nephew my pirated copy of Yoshi's Wolly World, he went out and bought a brand new 2DS and a copy of Yoshi with the amiibo. He's a 4 year old kid. He didn't like Nintendo until I showed him Nintendo. He is going to want his own legitimate copy of my pirated games someday if his parents can afford it. He may someday recommend the game to someone else. Piracy causes a net increase in sales through these kinds of interactions. I pirated the first Pirates of the Carribean movie. I loved the movie. I own them all on Bluray now. I would not have bought any of those movies if I hadn't pirated the first one.

Banning piracy decreases extra sales and discourages people from being customers. When you factor in the decreases legitimate sales you end up with negative costs to support piracy. Piracy actually increases profit. When you do the math properly, the recommendations of the pirates are worth more than the true MARGINAL costs of supporting them.

Remember, that accountants and most business people are the ones who thought that business classes in college were difficult and that was the best major they could do. These business people, the marketers, the salesmen, the middle managers, can barely use Excel. They weren't smart enough to handle majors like science and engineering. Some people chose business as a major because they like business. Many people choose business as a major because there were getting horrible grades in math and science classes. If someone things Calculus and introductory physics is really difficult then they can't really understand statistics, data science, and other more complicated effects. These people have valuable skills and are quite important for the running of the company, but they don't always make the best decisions when it comes to advanced number crunching. They need the advice of more technical people like data scientists. Now, I completely made up these ideas. Has anyone actually ran the numbers rigorously? I doubt it. So I think I am right until someone runs the numbers in a statistically valid way and verifies that I am wrong with adequate case studies.

A Plus Ric · May 28, 2017

Banning piracy does not decrease sales, you are not gonna buy a game u pirated if u can play online. Now you only upset because it's possible u need to buy the game to play on oline.

Hadobedo · May 28, 2017

Several days later, 4 of the 5 3DS's I've modded remain unbanned. The 5th one was unbanned the day after the banwave, but I haven't had time to check because it's not with me right now.

t54mod1 · May 28, 2017

Lol

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

Hadobedo said:
Several days later, 4 of the 5 3DS's I've modded remain unbanned. The 5th one was unbanned the day after the banwave, but I haven't had time to check because it's not with me right now.

How did it unban???

KytuzuEX · May 28, 2017

A Plus Ric said:
Banning piracy does not decrease sales, you are not gonna buy a game u pirated if u can play online. Now you only upset because it's possible u need to buy the game to play on online.

The problem is now... How then I can play online with the bought game?

marbles73 · May 28, 2017

Piracy (and banning it) increases, decreases, and has no effect on potential sales depending on the situation. It's not safe to assume that allowing it will increase profit. Accommodating it with private servers would simply encourage it.

Quantumcat said:
I thoroughly agree with you. For example, I use Netflix and not because I care about the movie/TV industry. I used to download torrents, but paying $10/month to avoid the inconvenience (you have to work out what you want to watch, find it, download it, download another one when it turns out the one you downloaded had Nvidia protection so there's no sound, etc) is worthwhile to me. If Nintendo had a system where I could pay $20/month and play all the games I wanted I would do that rather than install CFW and pirate, cause it is just easier. I'll go to a little inconvenience to save a lot of money but I definitely won't go to a lot of inconvenience to save a little bit of money.
In fact I was really sure that the Wii U dump of Breath of the wild was going to have some sort of timebomb in it that effectively just made it a demo. I think this would be clever - if you could get that file into as many download places as possible, people might not be able to tell the difference, and then do they really want to go and try to find another copy and start the game again, only to find it is another stubbed version? No, it would be easier to buy it. Especially if they make it so it is really easy to carry your save file over to a paid version.

But that would lead to less income, letting you play ANY game for $20?

Hadobedo said:
Several days later, 4 of the 5 3DS's I've modded remain unbanned. The 5th one was unbanned the day after the banwave, but I haven't had time to check because it's not with me right now.

There doesn't seem to be much movement with bans the past 24 hours.

t54mod1 · May 28, 2017

L

t54mod1 said:
Lol

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

How did it unban???

How?? Did it just random?

KytuzuEX · May 28, 2017

Hadobedo said:
Several days later, 4 of the 5 3DS's I've modded remain unbanned. The 5th one was unbanned the day after the banwave, but I haven't had time to check because it's not with me right now.

Aren't you contradicting yourself?

A Plus Ric · May 28, 2017

KytuzuEX said:
The problem is now... How then I can play online with the bought game?

Get a new n3ds....don't hack it. Simple.

Suji_Pyo · May 28, 2017

So I just noticed something weird, in my activity log the system has connected to donwload play every day for around 10 minutes... the problem is that I don't remember opening that app AT ALL! in fact I have a folder for useless apps (health and safety, photos) and Download Play was there, I haven't open that folder in MONTHS! Why is that app in every day of my activity log?!?!?

Thunder Hawk · May 28, 2017

Suji_Pyo said:
So I just noticed something weird, in my activity log the system has connected to donwload play every day for around 10 minutes... the problem is that I don't remember opening that app AT ALL! in fact I have a folder for useless apps (health and safety, photos) and Download Play was there, I haven't open that folder in MONTHS! Why is that app in every day of my activity log?!?!?

It might be a homebrew app using an exploit in DS Download play..?

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