Okay...first blog post entry (ever), so I'll start off by saying I'm not going to make it much different than making a new forum thread. Or at all. The difference is that while I will be addressing readers (you!) from time to time, I'm not asking for input. I'm good at explaining my thoughts on paper, but really...I'm not trying to convince anyone. Except maybe myself. I may be wrong and that's okay. In fact, I'll start out by saying that THE EARTH IS AS FLAT AS A DIME!!!!
If you already feel the urge to reply that I'm wrong...then please...do NOT continue reading. Thanx.
Anyhow...this blog, and probably others with it, will be about my concern on the gaming industry as a whole. And the changes that are occurring within it.
For those who don't know Moore: wikipedia link. It's basically the outline of "COMPUTERS WILL BE MORE POWERFULLLL!!!". It's been on and off going that way for some decades, but obviously, it has to stop somewhere. And I think that time is getting close.
Yes, there is the physical aspect (you can't just KEEP miniaturising things). But there's also the buyer's perspective. Back in the early PC days, those things were slow and sluggish for even the most basic tasks. It crashed every so often, software was expensive, there were no standards, and so on, and so on. Over time, things progressed from "who the hell would want to use that junk?" to "OMG is this easy to use or what? ". Since about five years, the average computer is convenient, handy, and even quite user friendly (there's a reason why windows XP is still around). For the most basic tasks. For computing on your desk, everything was fine. Nowadays, everything is going mobile. And is fine as well (relatively...I know there are exceptions).
Moore's law is still around when checking on how processors are built...but for the average user, it's no longer needed. I think most of us have friends or relatives with a pc that's nearly ten year old but is still used for surfing, mailing or even (retro) gaming, because "it's fast enough". Which leaves graphical artists, movie editors and hardcore gamers to keep pushing the boundries. And I'm not familiar enough with the former two to know if they're still upgrading their PC every so often just because what they have is getting too slow for the job they're doing.
Result: more and more, Moore's law is starting to depend on hardcore gamers as the end users of that researching for faster PC's. And I'm wondering...just how long is that going to last?
As games get more realistic graphics, the cost also ramps up. And we're really getting to the point where making such games isn't going to be profitable anymore. The best sold gaming console of last generation was the one with the weakest specs (the wii). And even though there are new consoles incoming (the wiiu already on the market at the time of writing), I'm going to be sceptical of their success.
On the PC end of gaming, things aren't that much better either. Partially because the hardcore gamers have - to a degree - moved over to consoles, but also because games nowadays are more often designed for consoles. And that's understandable: the difference between the best of the best pc and an "average" pc is that the latter is about half the cost...but it's not like the game will be half as fun.
And then there are indie games. Those rarely (if every) push any boundaries from your PC specs. But they're gaining on popularity.
So what does all this mean for Moore's law? Well...bad news. The time will come, and IMHO it will come soon, that the push for faster processing power is coming to an end. Today's demand is that the program simply works. The graphical power has lost its "wow"-factor.
My main concern is...what's next? For now, the answer is diversification. It's not just nintendo anymore going all the way wacky with strange controllers. On the PC market, everyone's money is on making everything mobile. I can foresee laptops eventually be pushed away by tablets (the only advantage they have is that it types faster...but a hybrid or a simple USB-keyboard solves that), but other than that? I don't know.
And what worries me is that the end user has troubles keeping up (heck...I have troubles keeping up, and I'm an IT-guy). You see people buying a smartphone without knowing how it works. They want everything connected to everything else, not understanding that the systems are vastly different. iOS, android, windows and linux all build roughly the same thing in a totally different way (okay...android is based on linux).
Yeah...I'm straying from my subject. What I'm saying is that these issues worry the average user far more than the speed of their pc. The industry, thus far, chooses to ignore that. I'm just wondering how long that'll last...
If you already feel the urge to reply that I'm wrong...then please...do NOT continue reading. Thanx.
Anyhow...this blog, and probably others with it, will be about my concern on the gaming industry as a whole. And the changes that are occurring within it.
For those who don't know Moore: wikipedia link. It's basically the outline of "COMPUTERS WILL BE MORE POWERFULLLL!!!". It's been on and off going that way for some decades, but obviously, it has to stop somewhere. And I think that time is getting close.
Yes, there is the physical aspect (you can't just KEEP miniaturising things). But there's also the buyer's perspective. Back in the early PC days, those things were slow and sluggish for even the most basic tasks. It crashed every so often, software was expensive, there were no standards, and so on, and so on. Over time, things progressed from "who the hell would want to use that junk?" to "OMG is this easy to use or what?
". Since about five years, the average computer is convenient, handy, and even quite user friendly (there's a reason why windows XP is still around). For the most basic tasks. For computing on your desk, everything was fine. Nowadays, everything is going mobile. And is fine as well (relatively...I know there are exceptions).Moore's law is still around when checking on how processors are built...but for the average user, it's no longer needed. I think most of us have friends or relatives with a pc that's nearly ten year old but is still used for surfing, mailing or even (retro) gaming, because "it's fast enough". Which leaves graphical artists, movie editors and hardcore gamers to keep pushing the boundries. And I'm not familiar enough with the former two to know if they're still upgrading their PC every so often just because what they have is getting too slow for the job they're doing.
Result: more and more, Moore's law is starting to depend on hardcore gamers as the end users of that researching for faster PC's. And I'm wondering...just how long is that going to last?
As games get more realistic graphics, the cost also ramps up. And we're really getting to the point where making such games isn't going to be profitable anymore. The best sold gaming console of last generation was the one with the weakest specs (the wii). And even though there are new consoles incoming (the wiiu already on the market at the time of writing), I'm going to be sceptical of their success.
On the PC end of gaming, things aren't that much better either. Partially because the hardcore gamers have - to a degree - moved over to consoles, but also because games nowadays are more often designed for consoles. And that's understandable: the difference between the best of the best pc and an "average" pc is that the latter is about half the cost...but it's not like the game will be half as fun.
And then there are indie games. Those rarely (if every) push any boundaries from your PC specs. But they're gaining on popularity.
So what does all this mean for Moore's law? Well...bad news. The time will come, and IMHO it will come soon, that the push for faster processing power is coming to an end. Today's demand is that the program simply works. The graphical power has lost its "wow"-factor.
My main concern is...what's next? For now, the answer is diversification. It's not just nintendo anymore going all the way wacky with strange controllers. On the PC market, everyone's money is on making everything mobile. I can foresee laptops eventually be pushed away by tablets (the only advantage they have is that it types faster...but a hybrid or a simple USB-keyboard solves that), but other than that? I don't know.
And what worries me is that the end user has troubles keeping up (heck...I have troubles keeping up, and I'm an IT-guy). You see people buying a smartphone without knowing how it works. They want everything connected to everything else, not understanding that the systems are vastly different. iOS, android, windows and linux all build roughly the same thing in a totally different way (okay...android is based on linux).
Yeah...I'm straying from my subject. What I'm saying is that these issues worry the average user far more than the speed of their pc. The industry, thus far, chooses to ignore that. I'm just wondering how long that'll last...
