Those not living under a rock probably heard of this thing called "brexit". It's short for "the United Kingdom wants to leave the European Union". It's hard to believe, but this whole thing started over three years ago. As...something of a joke, if I read things right. The then prime minister (Cameron) wanted to get something done, and because he needed support, he promised his adversaries he'd write out a referendum, asking the population whether they want to leave the EU.
He clearly didn't anticipate the referendum to actually make it to a majority. A small majority (52%), but a majority nonetheless. So that was a blunder, but...it's really nothing compared to the other side. You see, the political side pushing for a leave of the EU (or "brexit", because it's Britain going for the exit) had no plan. It's not really clear what got into them because at least partially there is a side that doesn't WANT things to be clear. Nigel Farage, who was the main proponent for leaving, was handed large sums of money for it by Arron Banks, but it's unclear where that money comes from. What is clear, however, is that more money was pumped into the leave campaign than was legal, but again: this was afterwards. Fact is that the brexit campaign made all sorts of promises to people. The EU was painted as either a bureaucratic moloch that did nothing but produce hindering taxes for the sake of hindering taxes, or as a downright evil force that wants to clip the UK's wings for some reason.
I can take a few educated stabs at the direction and the reasoning so much money was poured into this (my personal opinion: a wealthy subclass doesn't like the idea of continentally enforced finance regulations, so they have a good motivation to spend some of that money to ensure that the local laws protect their wealth), but truth be told: I don't know. Could as well be the Russians. Or the USA. Or heck: even the EU themselves(1). But there they were: blessed with 52% of the voters, obtained through half-truths, whole lies...and absolutely no idea on the feasability or EU's position in any of this.
This became immediately clear when Nigel Farage proudly announced himself retiring from UKIP, mere days after the referendum. This should've been the first indication for the ones filling in the brexit vote that something was amiss. If these negotiations with the EU were going to be as easy as was promised, shouldn't they be lead by...y'know...the guy who was the poster child of the movement?
Next up was this blonde guy: Boris Johnson was also set for becoming prime minister...but he lost his support because Michael Gove wanted to be prime minister himself. Result: neither got it, and there was to be an elimination process to see who would be prime minister. The result was a certain Theresa May. A bremainder. The brexit process was to be lead by someone who mere weeks before advocated to remain in the EU!
Okay...time for a little break into different territory. It's...you could call it a thought experiment. Or even a philosophical pondering, though that's not really what it is. It's called "the ship of Theseus". It is named after Greek mythology: the sailor Theseus who got lost after the Trojan wars, and sailed for years before finally making it home (meaning: he sucked at his job). During that time, he and his crew had to do repairs of the ship. Say a sail at first. Then a mast. Then the deck. And so on, and so on. By the time he finally made it home, there was no part of the ship left with which it started back in Troy. The thought experiment is as follows: is this ship still the same ship as the one Theseus started his journey with? When just looking at the start and the end, you'd be inclined to say "no" (it's completely different parts!). But at what point do you say "okay...we're now on a different ship"? At 51%? When the most important part of the ship is replaced? Or even...never?
Yeah, I know: it doesn't have a real answer. But you can probably guess where I'm going with this. The idea of brexit is simple enough: talk to the EU, cancel membership, set up some local laws, set up some nice agreements with the EU neighbors, ride into the sunset, profit. But the promisses along the way were made in a vacuum. It's one thing to say that the EU takes 350 million pounds a week and that this money would better be used in the UK, but that was never true to begin with. The sum was far lower, and it wasn't the total sum either (in truth, nearly as much money flowed back into the UK as out).
The 'kipper' incident is also a nice, tragic piece of comedy. With much panache, Johnson proclaimed that EU regulation had decreed that all fish (kippers) needed to have a plastic ice pillow, which drove up the cost for poor UK fishermen. Very believable, and accompanied by an actual kipper. Damn bureaucrats! Tell US how to handle our fish! Where do I file for a divorce???!!!
Well...I feel for these fishermen. Especially now. Because in a way, there was only one "small" error in the story. The regulation isn't from the EU...it's a UK one.
There are more of such stories. Reasonable EU citizens like myself often scratch themselves on the head and wonder why the UK is trying to do what they're doing. And as far as I can see, there are now two UK's (or a "divided kingdom" if you want things more dramatic). Those 48% bremainders haven't changed(2) but see themselves at odds with the rest. And those brexiteers have jumped the wagon of leave and are now prone to the sunk cost fallacy that's all too common for those who've ever owned a wiiu(3): it's something you've identified with, and as such you attempt to bend the world around your perception, against all odds if you have to. The brexiteers got on board the brexit ship when it was a proud galleon. It hadn't left the harbor when captain Farage took the life boat to nowhere, but that's okay. The promised "brexit" country would be sailed to by first mate May. She rather stayed on shore, but that's okay: at least things got going. Oops...that mast containing that "350£ pounds per week for Britain!!!" banner on the sails broke off. A pity...but that's okay. Then the backup sail (the one containing a kipper) fell off. Okay...so it wasn't going to be as smooth of a voyage as was promised, but that was okay.
Things got rowdy when the parliament rowing crew was informed by May about the set course. They refused to go in the set direction. May attempted three detours, but the crew refused to budge. So May gave up her position. I'm not sure what the position of the passengers were, but in this analogy it would probably be in the area of "why aren't we getting to brexit?" "Are we there yet?"...and of course the ever informed "Just get on with it!".
Meanwhile, first mate May had left her position in favor of crow's nest lookout boy Johnson. Some argue that Johnson had left his position as lookout earlier, and thus was unfit for a serious function. Others pointed out that the ones saying this would have rather stayed ashore, so he got the position because in the end he could convince everyone that he could get them to where they were going. With or without ship!
Of course this only lasted until his first encounter with the parliament rowing crew. But that was okay.
"Parliament? We don't need parliament!", he said, and attempted to toss their oars overboard.
...and that's somewhat where the UK is now. Since Johnson no longer holds a majority in his government anymore, someone new will have to be appointed (meaning: parliament still has the power to actually DO something). Someone who will plot a new course to brexit. It's much, MUCH later than was initially said, let alone originally promised, but the crew is still hellbent to get there.
I'm not so sure what the passengers are thinking, though. Of course there are protests on the whole expedition. There is plenty of things to complain about, and that's not even taking brexit itself in account: nobody has ever seen it. There are these voyagers called "economists" who claim that brexit is all but the promised land, but what do they know? Those could be short term pains to endure for a long term gain.
I honestly couldn't tell...
(1): not as stupid of an idea as you might think. Those thinking that the UK was a model student of the EU before this referendum came along are sadly living in a dream world. The UK was, and apparently always was, a bit of a rebel. "European standards? Good idea, but we'll keep our own". "An European reply to a crisis? That's nice...but we'll reply in our own way". That sort of thing. So it's not like the EU shed bitter tears for them leaving (apart from the precedent and figuring out a proper way to do it, of course).
(2): okay, that's a conservative guess. Youth was mostly prone to remaining while it was mostly old people wanting to leave. That factor alone means that in three years time the balance could have shifted some crucial percentages
(3): best console ever! I swear!!!! *owns a wiiu*
He clearly didn't anticipate the referendum to actually make it to a majority. A small majority (52%), but a majority nonetheless. So that was a blunder, but...it's really nothing compared to the other side. You see, the political side pushing for a leave of the EU (or "brexit", because it's Britain going for the exit) had no plan. It's not really clear what got into them because at least partially there is a side that doesn't WANT things to be clear. Nigel Farage, who was the main proponent for leaving, was handed large sums of money for it by Arron Banks, but it's unclear where that money comes from. What is clear, however, is that more money was pumped into the leave campaign than was legal, but again: this was afterwards. Fact is that the brexit campaign made all sorts of promises to people. The EU was painted as either a bureaucratic moloch that did nothing but produce hindering taxes for the sake of hindering taxes, or as a downright evil force that wants to clip the UK's wings for some reason.
I can take a few educated stabs at the direction and the reasoning so much money was poured into this (my personal opinion: a wealthy subclass doesn't like the idea of continentally enforced finance regulations, so they have a good motivation to spend some of that money to ensure that the local laws protect their wealth), but truth be told: I don't know. Could as well be the Russians. Or the USA. Or heck: even the EU themselves(1). But there they were: blessed with 52% of the voters, obtained through half-truths, whole lies...and absolutely no idea on the feasability or EU's position in any of this.
This became immediately clear when Nigel Farage proudly announced himself retiring from UKIP, mere days after the referendum. This should've been the first indication for the ones filling in the brexit vote that something was amiss. If these negotiations with the EU were going to be as easy as was promised, shouldn't they be lead by...y'know...the guy who was the poster child of the movement?
Next up was this blonde guy: Boris Johnson was also set for becoming prime minister...but he lost his support because Michael Gove wanted to be prime minister himself. Result: neither got it, and there was to be an elimination process to see who would be prime minister. The result was a certain Theresa May. A bremainder. The brexit process was to be lead by someone who mere weeks before advocated to remain in the EU!
Okay...time for a little break into different territory. It's...you could call it a thought experiment. Or even a philosophical pondering, though that's not really what it is. It's called "the ship of Theseus". It is named after Greek mythology: the sailor Theseus who got lost after the Trojan wars, and sailed for years before finally making it home (meaning: he sucked at his job). During that time, he and his crew had to do repairs of the ship. Say a sail at first. Then a mast. Then the deck. And so on, and so on. By the time he finally made it home, there was no part of the ship left with which it started back in Troy. The thought experiment is as follows: is this ship still the same ship as the one Theseus started his journey with? When just looking at the start and the end, you'd be inclined to say "no" (it's completely different parts!). But at what point do you say "okay...we're now on a different ship"? At 51%? When the most important part of the ship is replaced? Or even...never?
Yeah, I know: it doesn't have a real answer. But you can probably guess where I'm going with this. The idea of brexit is simple enough: talk to the EU, cancel membership, set up some local laws, set up some nice agreements with the EU neighbors, ride into the sunset, profit. But the promisses along the way were made in a vacuum. It's one thing to say that the EU takes 350 million pounds a week and that this money would better be used in the UK, but that was never true to begin with. The sum was far lower, and it wasn't the total sum either (in truth, nearly as much money flowed back into the UK as out).
The 'kipper' incident is also a nice, tragic piece of comedy. With much panache, Johnson proclaimed that EU regulation had decreed that all fish (kippers) needed to have a plastic ice pillow, which drove up the cost for poor UK fishermen. Very believable, and accompanied by an actual kipper. Damn bureaucrats! Tell US how to handle our fish! Where do I file for a divorce???!!!
Well...I feel for these fishermen. Especially now. Because in a way, there was only one "small" error in the story. The regulation isn't from the EU...it's a UK one.
There are more of such stories. Reasonable EU citizens like myself often scratch themselves on the head and wonder why the UK is trying to do what they're doing. And as far as I can see, there are now two UK's (or a "divided kingdom" if you want things more dramatic). Those 48% bremainders haven't changed(2) but see themselves at odds with the rest. And those brexiteers have jumped the wagon of leave and are now prone to the sunk cost fallacy that's all too common for those who've ever owned a wiiu(3): it's something you've identified with, and as such you attempt to bend the world around your perception, against all odds if you have to. The brexiteers got on board the brexit ship when it was a proud galleon. It hadn't left the harbor when captain Farage took the life boat to nowhere, but that's okay. The promised "brexit" country would be sailed to by first mate May. She rather stayed on shore, but that's okay: at least things got going. Oops...that mast containing that "350£ pounds per week for Britain!!!" banner on the sails broke off. A pity...but that's okay. Then the backup sail (the one containing a kipper) fell off. Okay...so it wasn't going to be as smooth of a voyage as was promised, but that was okay.
Things got rowdy when the parliament rowing crew was informed by May about the set course. They refused to go in the set direction. May attempted three detours, but the crew refused to budge. So May gave up her position. I'm not sure what the position of the passengers were, but in this analogy it would probably be in the area of "why aren't we getting to brexit?" "Are we there yet?"...and of course the ever informed "Just get on with it!".
Meanwhile, first mate May had left her position in favor of crow's nest lookout boy Johnson. Some argue that Johnson had left his position as lookout earlier, and thus was unfit for a serious function. Others pointed out that the ones saying this would have rather stayed ashore, so he got the position because in the end he could convince everyone that he could get them to where they were going. With or without ship!
Of course this only lasted until his first encounter with the parliament rowing crew. But that was okay.
"Parliament? We don't need parliament!", he said, and attempted to toss their oars overboard.
...and that's somewhat where the UK is now. Since Johnson no longer holds a majority in his government anymore, someone new will have to be appointed (meaning: parliament still has the power to actually DO something). Someone who will plot a new course to brexit. It's much, MUCH later than was initially said, let alone originally promised, but the crew is still hellbent to get there.
I'm not so sure what the passengers are thinking, though. Of course there are protests on the whole expedition. There is plenty of things to complain about, and that's not even taking brexit itself in account: nobody has ever seen it. There are these voyagers called "economists" who claim that brexit is all but the promised land, but what do they know? Those could be short term pains to endure for a long term gain.
I honestly couldn't tell...
(1): not as stupid of an idea as you might think. Those thinking that the UK was a model student of the EU before this referendum came along are sadly living in a dream world. The UK was, and apparently always was, a bit of a rebel. "European standards? Good idea, but we'll keep our own". "An European reply to a crisis? That's nice...but we'll reply in our own way". That sort of thing. So it's not like the EU shed bitter tears for them leaving (apart from the precedent and figuring out a proper way to do it, of course).
(2): okay, that's a conservative guess. Youth was mostly prone to remaining while it was mostly old people wanting to leave. That factor alone means that in three years time the balance could have shifted some crucial percentages
(3): best console ever! I swear!!!! *owns a wiiu*
