Let's start with what we do know. There are a number of untethered exploits. Some establish higher level access to the console. And depending on your firmware, there are certain homebrew you can utilize. For example, Pegaswitch is available for 3.0 and below but only has access to homebrew. The tethered coldboot works on all firmwares and grants you full access to the console at the cost of tethering. There are unreleased softmod warmboots that work all the way up to 4.1 but they have not been released yet. The softmod warmboot for 3.01-4.1 will not be released when the CFW is launched. This is speculation for the reasoning, but they have stated that they have not tested any exploits for 5.x as of yet. Since they have not released this exploit, Nintendo should not be aware of what to patch theoretically. So based on this logic, it holds that the 3.01-4.1 exploit may work on 5.x. There is a reason this is important.
I get the vibe that you are aware that Nintendo is planning on releasing a new Switch revision that takes care of the tethered coldboot, known as Mariko (based on the chip it uses). The current Switch revision, Erista, has a hole in its bootrom that cannot be patched out because it is read-only thus allowing all firmwares to be hacked. The reason we know Mariko is coming is because there was support added for it in firmware 5.0. Now because the tethered coldboot will no longer work on the Mariko Switches, we currently have no means of hacking them when they come out. This is where those unreleased exploits come into play as they may be the key for unlocking those consoles. The next part will help explain why you should buy sooner rather than later.
Now, the following is speculation after closely following the scene, but I think it will help to advise that you should buy an Erista Switch ASAP. We have no idea when the Mariko Switch will hit the market. Nintendo will most likely do a silent implementation of this revision. We have no idea how to even identify them, until they come out that is. So we can't warn users beforehand if they are buying a Mariko Switch or not. However, what we do know is why they are making it. And that is because of the unpatchable bootrom exploit. Originally, this exploit was planned to be released on June 15th by a team that alerted the manufacturers of the exploited chip of the problem. They notified them months in advance in hopes to give them enough time to implement a fix as the exploit had potential ramifications outside of the Switch. This same team is devoting all their current time towards developing the CFW, Atmosphere. Even though the CFW is still a WIP, they were still trying to finish it by the same time as they would disclose the exploit to the public, June 15th. The reason they have not tested any exploits for 5.x yet is because not only are they busy working on Atmosphere for the time being, but they may have a strong feeling that the Mariko Switches may be released sometime around that date. If Atmosphere can be finished by the time the Mariko Switches are out, it will give them the perfect opportunity to work on cracking the Mariko Switch with the unreleased softmod warmboot exploits for 3.01-4.1.
The long and the short of the last paragraph is that although we have no idea when the new Switch revision will hit the market, the longer you wait, the more risk you take that the Switch you purchase will be a Mariko unit. Of course, as long as it doesn't have 5.x then its guaranteed not to be a Mariko device. But this is why its strongly advised that now is the time to buy an exploitable Switch because at the current moment, there are no confirmed hacks that will work on Mariko.
My last point will be obtaining said sofmodded warmboot exploits. We have reason to believe that the untethered exploit for firmwares 3.0 and below may have been patched out because they indicated it will be released at the same time as the CFW. Whether it involves Pegaswitch or not is just speculation. The hard part is when they will release the one for 3.01-4.1. If it turns out that it does not work on 5.x, then similar to the one for 3.0 and below, they will release it as it has already been patched out so there's nothing holding them back on releasing it. But what if those exploits do work on 5.x? Now it becomes a guessing game as to when they'll release it, if at all since as you have noticed, exploits typically get released after they are fixed. For what its worth, I'm holding onto my 4.1 in the hopes of that untethered exploit because I don't like tethering either. But we will simply have to wait and see.
I cannot answer your questions on what hacking will be like in a year or two because a) I cannot see the future and b) anything is possible. However, I hope I answered all your questions with some history on how we got to our current point in Switch hacking. I would agree that the forums are a bit of a mess in terms of utilizing hacks and discerning right from wrong, but this should all be alleviated once the CFW comes out. As someone else once said, "We may not be as good as a LGQT support group, but we are getting there".
