Assuming you mean AutoRCM, as I don't believe they can detect a jig used before OFW boots (but they could after). Regardless, I am using AutoRCM, so your points apply to me.You are running your switch in RCM, although i have not validated the following, if Nintendo tracks RCM loading, and they see that Horizon OS is running from RCM, they'll know something is up instantly, irrelevant on whether you loaded XCI's or NSP's. I think the only reason myself and others have not been banned yet even though we're online (WiFi active but no NNID, for me at least), is because i'd like to believe that the telemetry report only gets sent if you are logging to their online servers through your NNID (could be very wrong on this, but then i don't see why i'm not banned yet).
Everything has a risk. I've researched, and have made a decision as to what I am, and am not, comfortable with. I'd prefer not using AutoRCM if all else was equal, BUT it has two main advantages for me. 1, Easier for the kids to use (Minecraft and Splatoon seem to be bad at causing crashes). 2, Keeps fuses from being burned (since I started at 5.1.0 it's not a huge deal, but still...). Running a cart as nsp, the convenience does not outweigh the added risk that I perceive. Perhaps if I was a developer and "knew" it was as safe or safer than xci, but I'm not so I don't.
There's also the fact I already had the licenses for SX OS. If I hadn't, maybe I'd be ok with nsp instead of xci.