Hacking Question What were the chances that my switch was patched?

JJscave

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So this isn't really a necessary question but what were the chances of my switch being patched? I checked and it was "possibly patched" so I did the instructions and all and of course considering my luck it was patched.
I got my switch in late 2019, so am I unlucky or would I have been lucky to get an unpatched switch at Best Buy in late 2019?
 

JJscave

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50/50 you either get it as patch/unpatch if it possibly patch, if it definitely patch then it is 100% patched.
It's XAW1010326 and I checked on the site, it said possibly patched and now that I checked it is patched, I'm just asking the probability. How many patched switches were out at that time
 
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Hayato213

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It's XAW1010326 and I checked on the site, it said possibly patched and now that I checked it is patched, I'm just asking the probability. How many patched switches were out at that time

How many patched switch no idea, patched unit came out around August 2018, depends on when the switch was manufactured. You can still get CFW on patched unit but you need to be under 4.1 for the software base exploit or use a SX Core.
 

Draxzelex

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It's XAW1010326 and I checked on the site, it said possibly patched and now that I checked it is patched, I'm just asking the probability. How many patched switches were out at that time
Its impossible to calculate the probability because we don't know when every console is manufactured. However since Nintendo is no longer producing unpatched consoles, any possibly patched console nowadays is much more likely to be patched than unpatched.
 

Kallim

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Sorry to revive an old thread I've been wondering about this myself. Nintendo developed the new hardware in July 2018... If you look at the back of should have a year. If it's before 2018 then you're probably ok. If it's after your not... And 50/50 if it is 2018, the odds might be slightly in favour of being unpatched.

This is a guess based on 7 months until July 5 months after. Also not every plant will have produced the new boards straight away.

However if your buying off eBay it may say possibly unpatched... But it may only be for sale because it's patched (and the seller could play dumb). The odds were just for those that already own a switch.
 

ZachyCatGames

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Since this was bumped,
They probably started using the new set of patches on new SoCs around January to March 2018. A few months later those would start showing up in stores.
But they still used the old SoCs that were already burnt with the old patch set, it'd be wasteful not too.
So whenever the devices with newer chips first started appearing, they were probably less common than unpatched devices.
Then over time as they started to run out of chips with the old patches, devices with newer chips with the new patches became more and more common, until (almost) all consoles used the new ones.
(almost, because there were still some consoles with the old chips still being produced into late 2018 and 2019, with new device key generation and all, albeit very few).

It really depends when exactly it was bought, A console bought in June 2018 has a significantly lower chance of being patched than a console from December 2018, but both could be patched.
 
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Donnie-Burger

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Since this was bumped,
They probably started using the new set of patches on new SoCs around January to March 2018. A few months later those would start showing up in stores.
But they still used the old SoCs that were already burnt with the old patch set, it'd be wasteful not too.
So whenever the devices with newer chips first started appearing, they were probably less common than unpatched devices.
Then over time as they started to run out of chips with the old patches, devices with newer chips with the new patches became more and more common, until (almost) all consoles used the new ones.
(almost, because there were still some consoles with the old chips still being produced into late 2018 and 2019, with new device key generation and all, albeit very few).

It really depends when exactly it was bought, A console bought in June 2018 has a significantly lower chance of being patched than a console from December 2018, but both could be patched.
I forgot their were some rare later v1 eristas that were not patched like the pokemon edition.
 

Kallim

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There's still so many on ebay that are unpatched, literally sell your current switch and pay the difference for an unpatched

Probably the best advice you could take. There isn't really much difference in price if your trying to save money.

A lot are advertised as patched and they don't necessarily sell for more than the unpatched model due to the improved battery etc.

Sometimes the unpatched sell for more and some people do get a bargain if they can confirm the serial (and other bidders don't realise it's unpatched).

But a bargain might be a saving of £20... And if you're looking at possibly patched units it's not worth it.

There's a good chance the only reason it's being sold is the seller bought one of these "bargains". If so they're not going to over advertise that. If you ask they'll tell you they've googled the serial number and it says possibly patched.... So you'll end up playing pass the parcel.

If you've already got one buy a jig (they're literally pennies). You'll need one anyway once you sell your switch.

In short of your buying get the right unit (price is a secondary concern).
 

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