Trump leads Kamala in nearly every swing state [Update: Trump wins the 2024 election]

[DiscostewSM]

To no one's surprise, Musk's $1 million super PAC lotto was all a scam:

I would not be surprised if the "winners" were just actors, and they aren't actually winning anything.

 

[Valwinz]

is over
Most accurate pollster in 2020 shows Trump winning AZ, GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, and NV, and down only 2 points in Minnesota.

 

[NyaakoXD]

"Most accurate". lol
Yeah, keep coping there.

 

[Valwinz]

"Most accurate". lol
Yeah, keep coping there.

you can go look at it is not so made up thing it is in fact the closes one that got it right in 2020

 

[supermist]

is over
Most accurate pollster in 2020 shows Trump winning AZ, GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, and NV, and down only 2 points in Minnesota.

Wait did you just call Minnesota a swing state

 

[Valwinz]

more bad new for Kamala

 

[x65943]

is over
Most accurate pollster in 2020 shows Trump winning AZ, GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, and NV, and down only 2 points in Minnesota.

Online opt in polling is fraught with issues, like showing Harris leading among men, and Trump leading among women in Michigan

They managed to get things closer than polls that put Biden winning Wisconsin by double digits - but 2 election cycles and crazy outliers like that means it was probably luck

 

[titan_tim]

more bad new for Kamala

I don't know how bad the crash is going to be after huffing THIS much copium over the past months, but it's going to be quite the sight.

Also, just remember that many MANY registered Republicans will be voting for Harris, whereas the Democrats don't have that problem at all. You already know that, but your brain is pushing that fact out so that it doesn't crash early. It's going to be amazing to behold as the results come rolling in.

 

[x65943]

I don't know how bad the crash is going to be after huffing THIS much copium over the past months, but it's going to be quite the sight.

Also, just remember that many MANY registered Republicans will be voting for Harris, whereas the Democrats don't have that problem at all. You already know that, but your brain is pushing that fact out so that it doesn't crash early. It's going to be amazing to behold as the results come rolling in.

2.5% of R will vote Harris vs 1.4% of D

Overall sure more R are flipping but not all that many - like 1% more

They still get a similar proportion of their respective party once you count don't knows and other

https://today.yougov.com/topics/pol...l-ballot-voting-intention?crossBreak=hispanic

 

[Xzi]

I don't know how bad the crash is going to be after huffing THIS much copium over the past months, but it's going to be quite the sight.

Also, just remember that many MANY registered Republicans will be voting for Harris, whereas the Democrats don't have that problem at all. You already know that, but your brain is pushing that fact out so that it doesn't crash early. It's going to be amazing to behold as the results come rolling in.

Should also go without saying, but 2020 was an outlier for early/mail-in voting in most states. Without a pandemic, almost all demographics except the elderly/disabled are going to be represented in greater numbers on election day.

 

[BlazeHeatnix]

Well chuds this is it

Final day of polling, Trump ahead in NV, AZ, NC and GA

Harris ahead in MI and WI

PA tied

Whichever way PA breaks will decide the election, we'll see how razor thin it really ends up being

View attachment 469338

What about Iowa? Couldn't that turn things around even if Trump takes PA?

 

[x65943]

What about Iowa? Couldn't that turn things around even if Trump takes PA?

Iowa is either an insane outlier or the other 200 polls are all insane outliers

Iowa flipping would likely mean Kamala sweeping all 7 swing states and underpin systemic issues in our polling data (yet again)

Iowa will not matter either way because all the important states would share its bias - or not

 

[SylverReZ]

What about Iowa? Couldn't that turn things around even if Trump takes PA?

I undoubtedly think they would overturn anytime soon. Harris has been in the lead for quite a while.

 

[x65943]

I undoubtedly think they would overturn anytime soon. Harris has been in the lead for quite a while.

"Harris has been in the lead for quite a while."

I'll take what he is smoking

Edit: to give you a more productive reply

In our country it doesn't matter who is winning the majority of votes

The person who wins is the one who wins the majority of electoral votes that are not apportioned fairly

If a state has 500,000 people in it (0.15% of the population) they automatically get 3 electoral votes (0.56% of all votes)

In other words a voter in a small state like Wyoming gets 3-4x the say that a voter in California gets

So whoever appeals to rural voters in poorly populated states gets a major boost

This is how Clinton won the popular vote by millions but lost huge to Trump

 

[titan_tim]

2.5% of R will vote Harris vs 1.4% of D

Overall sure more R are flipping but not all that many - like 1% more

They still get a similar proportion of their respective party once you count don't knows and other

https://today.yougov.com/topics/pol...l-ballot-voting-intention?crossBreak=hispanic

View attachment 469357View attachment 469358

I'll believe it when the results come in. With so many prominent GOP members telling people to vote for Democrats, it has to make some dent in the way people will vote.

 

[supermist]

Clinton didn't campaign in Wisconsin and other swing states, had a lot of (but also some undeserved) baggage, and acted like the hare in the tortoise and the hare fable.

 

[Joe88]

I'll believe it when the results come in. With so many prominent GOP members telling people to vote for Democrats, it has to make some dent in the way people will vote.

I wouldn't call liz cheney, and adam kinzinger prominent republicans, they are very much hated among GOP. Thats why liz lost her primary and was voted out and adam didnt even bother with reelection and ran to CNN for a job.
I guess you can call former VP dick cheney pretty important, but he doesnt really have much swing these days, not enough to sway any voters imo.

 

[titan_tim]

I wouldn't call liz cheney, and adam kinzinger prominent republicans, they are very much hated among GOP. Thats why liz lost her primary and was voted out and adam didnt even bother with reelection and ran to CNN for a job.
I guess you can call former VP dick cheney pretty important, but he doesnt really have much swing these days, not enough to sway any voters imo.

Don't forget Schwarzenegger!

 

[x65943]

I wouldn't call liz cheney, and adam kinzinger prominent republicans, they are very much hated among GOP. Thats why liz lost her primary and was voted out and adam didnt even bother with reelection and ran to CNN for a job.
I guess you can call former VP dick cheney pretty important, but he doesnt really have much swing these days, not enough to sway any voters imo.

The bush era is so hated on both sides

I have seen people saying George W should come out in support of Kamala - honestly that sounds like more of a liability than anything

 

[Xzi]

Come to think of it, Trump has GWB's stupidity combined with Reagan's dementia. Really is the "ideal" Republican candidate.