The situation in Syria, the fall of Damascus

[x65943]

In what can only be described as modern blitzkrieg, Syrian rebels have made a sweep on Damascus and have now entered the Republican Palace.

SSG and other forces in the decade+ long Syrian civil war have put aside their differences and stormed the capital. In prior hours and days Aleppo, Hama and Homs were all taken. The last stronghold of the regime remains in the Alawite mountains to the West.

Russia, Turkey and Iran have reportedly met for talks earlier in the day, with Russia calling for a ceasefire. That all seems futile now as soldiers have abandoned their posts en masse and rebels take the capital.

Russia remains in control of their only Mediterranean port in western Syria for the present time, but it remains to be seen what fate the area - key to projection of force into Africa - might suffer.

It is unclear what happens next, there is fear the rebel groups may now turn to infighting and more civil war. Christian and Alawite minorities are afraid that radical elements among rebel groups may lead to persecution.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/

 

[Viri]

I don't like Assad, but these rebels are probably going to make Assad look like a "moderate".

 

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I don't like Assad, but these rebels are probably going to make Assad look like a "moderate".

Possible, however the whole NE is still held by US allies and the North by Turkey

The SGG is also backed by Turkey which is relatively moderate

ISIS in the East is ostracized and the enemy of every faction

Of course what comes next remains to be seen, but from reading accounts of Shia Muslims during the past couple days - they were not attacked

 

[Exidous]

Russia remains in control of their only Mediterranean port in western Syria for the present time, but it remains to be seen what fate the area - key to projection of force into Africa - might suffer.

If you're a Syrian rebel and wondering what to do about the military bases of the genocidal dictatorship that dumped barrel bombs on your neighborhood (in order to support its now-deposed puppet dictator), my recommendation is to surround them, force their surrender, sell the Russian soldiers to Ukraine (who will in turn sell them back to Russia to save innocent lives).

You can keep the stuff, but remember Russian military hardware is going through a rather steep revaluation.

Russia has extremely limited ability to project force, or even evacuate its facilities in Syria right now. Its only plausible go to, nuclear threats, wouldn't even have a presumptive target. Syrian rebels are still essentially non-government actors. Punch the dictator in the face before he's able to effectively threaten you.

I don't like Assad, but these rebels are probably going to make Assad look like a "moderate".

That would be a lot of chemical weapon attacks on civilians for the rebels to catch up to the murderous dictator, let alone make him look moderate, as you irresponsibly suggest.

 

[x65943]

If you're a Syrian rebel and wondering what to do about the military bases of the genocidal dictatorship that dumped barrel bombs on your neighborhood (in order to support its now-deposed puppet dictator), my recommendation is to surround them, force their surrender, sell the Russian soldiers to Ukraine (who will in turn sell them back to Russia to save innocent lives).

You can keep the stuff, but remember Russian military hardware is going through a rather steep revaluation.

Russia has extremely limited ability to project force, or even evacuate its facilities in Syria right now. Its only plausible go to, nuclear threats, wouldn't even have a presumptive target. Syrian rebels are still essentially non-government actors. Punch the dictator in the face before he's able to effectively threaten you.


That would be a lot of chemical weapon attacks on civilians for the rebels to catch up to the murderous dictator, let alone make him look moderate, as you irresponsibly suggest.

The rebels are backed by Turkey and some have said it's possible Russia and Turkey made a backroom deal to let them keep their military infrastructure

Unclear if true, but given Erdogan is known to play both sides, hardly out of the question

 

[Exidous]

The rebels are backed by Turkey and some have said it's possible Russia and Turkey made a backroom deal to let them keep their military infrastructure

Unclear if true, but given Erdogan is known to play both sides, hardly out of the question

The rebels aren't a monolith. The major faction that reignited the rebellion in the north is HTS, which is unofficially backed by Turkey. But that northern thrust isn't the rebel force that entered Damascus.

It remains to be seen which rebel factions will influence what going forward, but it would be very wrong to credit Erdogan with effectively controlling all or even most of them.

I certainly agree Erdogan has a reputation of playing both sides. It would just be foolish for anyone to believe his guarantee about what "the Syrian rebels" will or will not do.