The benefits of Brexit - the future of the United Kingdom

Discussion in 'World News, Current Events & Politics' started by emigre, May 26, 2018.

  1. notimp

    notimp GBAtemp Addict

    Member
    10
    Sep 18, 2007
    Thats normal. Probably running down time the diplomatic way. Or not. ;) The british side later brought in a formal complaint - that a press conference indoors was promised - and the promise not abided by.

    This came after afair - the crowd booed BJ in this setting.

    So 'conference indoors' is probably simply an allegory for 'control the crowd'.

    PMs oddly enough - when doing diplomatic appearances have to keep an eye on public appearance.

    So if you get the impression, that all that you are getting out of a meeting is bad press the next day, because of an unfavorable crowd - seemingly you just leave.

    Or you give that as a pretext, because you can. :) To BJs defense, people apparently were booing.. :)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Sep 19, 2019
  2. Taleweaver

    Taleweaver Storywriter

    Member
    13
    Dec 23, 2009
    Belgium
    Belgium
    ... And parliament is back in action. Supreme Court decided to follow the earlier mentioned Scottish court in that the prolonged prorogation was prone to being too long to condone (1).

    Johnson doesn't like the decision, but ey... That's just his opinion,apparently.



    (1): try reading that part out aloud fast :P
     
    Xzi likes this.
  3. Xzi

    Xzi All your base are belong to the proletariat

    pip Contributor
    20
    Dec 26, 2013
    United States
    Spiraling Out
    BoJo's Bizarre Adventure continues on.
     
  4. TerribleTy27

    TerribleTy27 GBAtemp Regular

    Member
    4
    Dec 22, 2017
    United States
    Up Yours
    Wait... Who's Dio (aka "I FORSAKE MY HUMANITY!!") in all this?
     
  5. notimp

    notimp GBAtemp Addict

    Member
    10
    Sep 18, 2007

    Current recap. (Canadian source)
     
  6. IncredulousP

    IncredulousP GBAtemp's Resident Bastard

    Member
    6
    Aug 21, 2012
    United States
    a Fuking van
    So has anything been done since the initial Brexit vote? Like, at all?
     
    TerribleTy27 likes this.
  7. TerribleTy27

    TerribleTy27 GBAtemp Regular

    Member
    4
    Dec 22, 2017
    United States
    Up Yours
    It's been, what, two years since I laste read about Brexit? When I was on Wikipedia and found out they're still screwing around I banged my head into the wall.
     
    IncredulousP likes this.
  8. notimp

    notimp GBAtemp Addict

    Member
    10
    Sep 18, 2007
    Yes, talks were held, plans were drafted. British side underestimated the extent to which economic integration already took part. British side found out about the irish border issue a little late.

    Here is the smoking gun. (Imho) As as said in the video - if you look at the body language of the 'pro brexit politicians' after their referendum victory, it spelled 'shit we've won, now what' in big letters. ;)

    But dont worry - if the inteded outcome always was hard brexit - all the work you have to do is to prepare your economies for it 'better' - thats been under way. :) That probably took all the time. :)
     
    IncredulousP likes this.
  9. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer

    pip Reporter
    23
    Nov 21, 2005
    United Kingdom
    Yes. Article 50 was triggered. This is the formal declaration of leaving (and has a time limit, since extended a few times and a further one is a hot topic right now but tricky for a whole bunch of reasons on both the EU and UK side of things*) as the vote was essentially an internal matter, technically not legally binding either -- direct democracy is not a major feature of UK politics, certainly not a common one (if you are more familiar with the US style of things where everybody down to fire commissioners are voted upon as are individual bills then such a notion is alien to most UK peeps), but ignoring it entirely is rather hard to justify.
    However said triggering happened seemingly without much of a plan on what was going to be asked for (the original referendum had no particular choices here, and little in the way of "we will be doing this if you vote this") and wide division across all the various concerns. Said concerns, though there is obviously overlap and pragmatism that blur things, fall into four main camps which are roughly
    The essentially hard exit to become just another country in the world, though presumably some negotiations done in short order as geographical location, historical and cultural ties and richness mean it is worth it. I don't know if this has been legally ruled out at this point but to attempt it would be a legal minefield, though the EU could also turn around and say you are done and have it happen by default as it were.
    The so called softer approach where the seat at the table is lost but some of the rulings still apply so as to facilitate trade more easily. Harder to sell to some people as Brussels is used much the same as Washington/DC is used when people talk about federal rulings in the US, and much of the campaigning was about taking back power. However also not a position without its supporters among those that voted to leave.
    While the opposition side has recently been seen to somewhat coalesce around the the "stop it if we can" types (though still not enough of a majority to do anything real**) then there was the "it is a bad move but if the people want it then make sure it is a good deal".

    None of said camps are anything close to dominant over the process as a whole and while party lines are a reasonable predictor there are some very notable exceptions in all of it -- the conservatives (the people that promised and held the vote in the first place, that lost a lot of support but still just about retained power in the subsequent election, albeit by teaming up with a local interest party in Northern Ireland) have some major dissenters here (some left, some were kicked out of the party, and today they are very much in a minority in government and have taken an absolute hammering at various other levels) there are others on the other sides that vote differently (sometimes pragmatism, sometimes their assessment of the thing, sometimes because that is what their constituents voted for in the original referendum).

    Internally in the UK as a lot of this is uncharted territory, and the UK does not have something like a codified constitution as much as lots of doctrine on the matter, then there has been a fair bit that has been figured out about what goes in such scenarios, and internal UK laws passed about what needs to happen (one of the main ones being that the UK parliament gets to approve the deal first, and seemingly another saying that leaving without a deal is not an option).

    A few quirks have been cleared up (the territory of Gibralta borders Spain for instance) and while the main negotiations have somewhat stalled there was the agreement the EU and negotiators (despite various flavours of incompetence, being without direction, being hamstrung and various resignations, firings and prime ministers/major ministers going themselves instead) came to concerning what to do in the meantime while the main negotiations could be continued (the so called backstop agreement) but that was rejected so harshly (on essentially multiple occasions, which itself is rare as returning things multiple times is not the done thing) that said series of rejections is now going to be a major historical note in UK politics. That said present UK politics is something of a series of major historical notes so that might end up being drowned out somewhat.

    Outside the EU there have been some overtures made to various countries as far as increased trade relations but most of those are waiting to see what will happen with leaving the EU lark first, the US among the more vocal for the harder exits (at least this presidency, the previous one differed a bit) where others do other things (For instance Canada, which has its own historical and current political ties with the UK, at this time being in the process of creating greater ties with the EU, indeed it forming one of the major models people looked at when considering what position to take).

    *the UK side of things is probably obvious here but EU wise their next major budget plans for the next however many years are set to begin (this being one of the major functions of the EU) and if the UK is still involved then that makes things a bit tricky -- the UK being both a source of revenue and a cost centre within it (in simple terms on a balance book the UK is a net profit for the EU but you still have to allocate spending and predict income), to say nothing of having a leaving party in a vote on direction, as well as their own vested interests, being a less than desirable thing to have.

    **the calls for an election came thick and fast for months, however during this proroguing lark the notion was floated and rejected as "not enough time" or something. If they thought they had a chance to enact their will then do you think they would have blocked an election?

    So yeah cynicism is quite justifiable, and the notion that the UK is some kind of old hand punching above their weight at international politics has taken a major kicking, and a lot more things should have happened but to say nothing happened is also not correct.
     
    notimp likes this.
  10. KingVamp

    KingVamp Haaah-hahahaha!

    Member
    13
    Sep 13, 2009
    United States
    Netherworld
    So... What's happening now?
     
  11. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer

    pip Reporter
    23
    Nov 21, 2005
    United Kingdom
    For the most part you might want to hold off on that for the next couple of days, maybe even a few weeks as the EU leader summit is where much is set to go down. Much speculation now is whether Hungary will be rejecting the negotiations extension request (which is required by UK law to be asked for), as such things need to be unanimous among EU voting countries, if emergency meetings with various Hungarian diplomats is anything to go by*.

    *the Hungarian prime minister is about as Eurosceptic as they come (though I believe polls there don't have support for them leaving) and seemingly prepared to take a kicking from the EU, not to mention Hungary does not do that much with the UK (they have some cheap but technologically capable labour so a few manufacturing firms for electronics and such use them to still technically make things within the EU and that is about it really) so no big loss to them if the UK has a hard time trading.

    Anyway the UK wide supreme court (a somewhat new concept in UK politics) upheld the Scottish ruling that the extended prorogation was not good and stopped it, which itself is a fairly bold political stance for a court that is somewhat famously apolitical, so now parliament is back in. This also means various party conferences (which were planned for a while prior to this) have been happening while parliament is in session.

    Some politicians complained about mean words but eh really. The prime minister also stuck his foot in it by saying the best way to honour that MP that got murdered the other year would be to get it done, this despite her rather firm stance being against it and the dude that did the deed giving that as a reason for doing it. Soundbite politics is boring though so I will skip anything more there.

    The prime minister proposed a fairly unlikely to pass alternative for Northern Ireland that leaves EU regulations on Northern Ireland (and not the rest of the UK) but has a measure of technological customs means and some checks "away from the border" (they call it two borders, 4 years as it is supposed to be a temporary thing while things get sorted out) thus leaving Northern Ireland within the UK for the purposes of internal UK trade and movement.

    At the same time an election is pretty much not if but when so there is a lot of fancy words in anticipation of that, and the EU is also watching to see what goes here as someone actually getting a majority (no idea how likely such a thing is) would allow things to happen.
     
    KingVamp likes this.
  12. Taleweaver

    Taleweaver Storywriter

    Member
    13
    Dec 23, 2009
    Belgium
    Belgium
    Alas... To my complete lack of surprise, Johnson didn't pull a white rabbit out of a hat. The current proposal isn't accepted by the EU. And both sides are starting to blame the other.

    Farage obviously enjoys this, and takes the opportunity to boost his own agenda ("Your wretched treaty is off the table, support for a clean-break Brexit is growing and it will be the winning ticket at the next general election"). Johnson is technically required by law to ask for an extension but it's unclear whether he'll do it (or that it'll be given, as pointed out by @FAST6191).
    The EU, on the other hand, is calling the proposal 'unrealistic' and 'not a real offer'. Verhofstadt calls Johnson a traitor multiple times.
    Varadkar puts it best (IMHO) by saying the following :
    "Essentially, what the UK has done is repudiated the deal that we negotiated in good faith with prime minister [Theresa] May's government over two years and have sort of put half of that now back on the table, and are saying that's a concession. And of course it isn't really,"

    I'm not saying it's impossible, but... Unless there's a huge and sudden change, a deal with the EU is going to be off the table pretty soon.

    Source :
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10098347/brexit-talks-leo-varadkar-breakthrough-talks-barnier/
     
    KingVamp and Xzi like this.
  13. JoeBloggs777

    JoeBloggs777 GBAtemp Advanced Fan

    Member
    6
    May 30, 2018
    United Kingdom
    I don't see how anyone can say a deal is negotiated in good faith when one party forces you to put your cards on the table first (exit fee and EU rights for citizens in the UK) and then when they've got the deal they want give you a deal on what you want. This was 2 deals and May should have stood her ground and said everything should be on the table at the same time.
     
  14. Taleweaver

    Taleweaver Storywriter

    Member
    13
    Dec 23, 2009
    Belgium
    Belgium
    Let's see... The Irish prime Minister said its done on good faith,and it's an idea that's been shared both by the EU as May's government. Sure, parliament shoot it down, but that was on the content rather than the way the deal came to be. I've read that "we've been forced into accepting a deal", but every time I try to get to the bottom of what that means, it turns out that there's no real substance behind the soundbite.

    But ey... I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Convince me : why are you thinking you know politics better than the Irish prime Minister? :)
     
  15. JoeBloggs777

    JoeBloggs777 GBAtemp Advanced Fan

    Member
    6
    May 30, 2018
    United Kingdom
    the way the deal came to be was Michel Barnier, if I remember correctly, telling May that the exit bill and EU citizens rights would have to be dealt with first. May should have told him no way, everything is on the table at the same time or you leave us with no option but a Brexit without a deal.

    can you see it happening the other way around, May getting the deal she wanted and then Barnier wanting to talk about the exit bill and EU citizens rights who are in the UK, of course not :(

    you mention the content was shot down by the MP's because many think it is a :shit: deal, and it demonstrates my point that May should have stood her ground and refused a deal on the exit bill and EU citizens rights first.
     
  16. Taleweaver

    Taleweaver Storywriter

    Member
    13
    Dec 23, 2009
    Belgium
    Belgium
    The first part is true. The second your opinion. May never resisted this because it was pretty obvious : the exit bill was because as a EU member, Britain had contributed a lot to shared projects that had to be untangled or in some cases continued (intelligence was one of those, iirc). So the exit bill was just a formality on both sides until some hardcore brexiteers decided to misinterpret its meaning.
    The EU citizens rights was another non - issue. You've got plenty of EU people living and working in the UK. With anti EU on the rise, what sorts of legislations are added to make sure they're not reduced to personae non grata?

    Look... I know the latter is the sort of politics that Johnson follows. It's about creating and using leverage and power play. The thing is : the EU sees this as extortion,as holding EU citizens hostage and irresponsible behavior (try using that 'oh, you want me to pay for my groceries? I'm willing to do that if you give me something extra' powerplay in your local supermarket and see what happens).
    And more relevant : May was more a traditional politician. One who believes that the best deals are win - win ones that benefit everyone.
    I see your logic, but it has a flaw in it. May never went against the hard limits of the EU, and she drew similar red lines in the sand for the UK as well. The deal got worked out from there. So i yes... In the end she got the deal she wanted. Whether the eu's lines were drawn before or after may brought up hers doesn't really matter in the end.

    The logic flaw in your reasoning is that of the zero sum game. You seem to assume that possibilities are either good or bad, and therefore have to be weighed in order not to 'give anything away for free'. Basically : the mere assertion that a due bill can be blockers about isn't aimed at not paying in the end, but to get something in return for... Well, for nothing, really.

    So the 'the other way around' isn't what you think it is. Similar would be more in terms of the EU making power plays like 'considering a complete economic blockades on the UK' or 'annexing Gibraltar'. It's nonsense because despite what some dumb tabloids think, we're not evil. May understood that. Johnson most likely as well, but he knows better than to think playing nice will wield him a different result than May.


    To be fair, I'm pretty sure parliament thinks ALL exit deals (including no deal) are :shit:
    . May clearly underestimated that. Johnson doesn't, but his plot to get around them failed.

    Johnson isn't making the same mistakes as May, I'll give him that. Unfortunately, and this is my opinion, he makes a worse mistake. Attempting to extort the EU either won't work or will have long term repercussions.
    ... And that's assuming that parliament will even agree to the best possible deal Johnson can get in the first place.
     
  17. Taleweaver

    Taleweaver Storywriter

    Member
    13
    Dec 23, 2009
    Belgium
    Belgium
    A small bump... Seems like things are moving in the negotiations. From what I read, there are ACTUAL negotiations going on between the two states.

    However... Part of the agreement would be that northern Ireland follows regulation of the EU(with the actual customs in the Irish sea), so even if that's true it may as well not make it through parliament. The proposal would certainly be different than what May ever proposed, but I don't think it's going to make much of a difference if those guys still say no to everything.
     
    Xzi likes this.
  18. Henx

    Henx Newbie

    Newcomer
    3
    May 11, 2018
    United Kingdom
    Going back to how this started... it is perplexing that this referendum happened in the first place. People were manipulated into voting to leave.
    For the past month I encountered several interesting articles that opened my eyes to a subject I wasn't aware in the first place.
    This podcast is pretty much on point, about how digital manipulation impacts politics, and how dangerous that is https://www.npr.org/programs/ted-radio-hour/740767821/digital-manipulation?showDate=2019-07-12

    Second, and more importantly is the British government own agenda. This article describes our own tax heavens, and how UK will benefit from it, following its exit from EU https://www.taxjustice.net/2019/01/23/brexit-and-the-future-of-tax-havens/
    Worth mentioning is the EU's blacklist on these. This is where it gets dark, or grey as referred to in the article https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-havens-and-puts-caymans-and-jersey-on-notice

    Just wanted to have other points of views on what is going on with this. Certainly, it only benefits the rich and makes the poor, even poorer.
     
    IncredulousP likes this.
  19. KingVamp

    KingVamp Haaah-hahahaha!

    Member
    13
    Sep 13, 2009
    United States
    Netherworld
    They really should just have another vote and make it clear what "leave" is. Even if you question the idea of leaving at all, I would guess that most people wasn't expecting or wanting a no-deal, if they did leave.
     
    IncredulousP likes this.
  20. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer

    pip Reporter
    23
    Nov 21, 2005
    United Kingdom

    Perplexing that the referendum happened in the first place?
    Seems like a fairly obvious ploy to avoid the spoiler effect from UKIP (they might not have got many MP seats but they had enough percentage vote to note in this), loss of power to UKIP in locals and Europe, and internal defection in their parties, and if they were presuming a narrow loss then being able to point at that and say "see how close you were... wouldn't take much to tip it now and you wouldn't want that to happen now would you?" in EU negotiations for years to come (see also Scotland independence, Quebec independence and anywhere else there was a narrow result in such things).
    Appeasement actions towards such ends have been a staple of big party politics for... centuries really.

    I have my issues with the framing of the original vote (no plan, much less a public plan, no consensus, no particular framework for it, lots of dubious claims) and I don't doubt for a moment there were some fucking smart people playing with all sorts of numbers, polling, psychology and tactical advertising (if various news reports are to believed maybe even some what could technically be insider trading too to help finance a few thing) which coupled rather nicely with the cluelessness of the voting public but whether they reach into the realms of voter manipulation as the law understands it is a different matter.

    Tax havens as a result (though most of those seem a bit out of date at this point). Nice perk for some, possibly a combination factor for some of the people driving the campaign but don't see it as a driving force -- there is a reason small islands and such are the only places to truly operate like this.
     
Quick Reply
Draft saved Draft deleted
Loading...