1. 0x3000027E

    0x3000027E GBAtemp Regular
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    Sir! We have surely moved on from this dated subject matter, although I'm amused by your simple approach to such a complex system, so I will humor your response. Please, in the future, lets not waste each others time with such matters.

    No need to go into a long-winded explanation here, as your response is quite easy to hand wave. The study of climate requires the implementation of non-linear systems and (often) a high-degree of calculus. I won't even bother getting into a further explanation of our very limited knowledge of the potential factors impacting climate in the first place: the motions of astral bodies, activity of the sun, a meteor passing several hundred light years away, etc, etc, etc.

    Lastly, climate change has become a political matter, so no longer of any interest to me. Once a subject matter passes into the Left Wing/Right Wing "oblivion " it becomes absurd.

    Please, let us move on.
     
  2. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    ?

    I think we pretty much know how the earths rotational axis is situated, how ebb and high tide work, activity of the sun you can meassure at the level of space, so to understand that you need no understanding of atmosphere at all, you just look at numbers, meteors 'several light years away' have no impact on climate - ehm, you sure made it sound difficult, but none of those are complex factors (afaik). If you want to read up on factors that go into the calculation of climate models, they are in this thread already. Should be a video from the chaos communication congress. (German hacking conference, where a young scientist working on a part of said models explained how the modeling works, and how you can take a look at the data and spin up your own (impact) models if you want to..)

    edit: Here, its the second video:

     
    Last edited by notimp, Oct 23, 2020
  3. 0x3000027E

    0x3000027E GBAtemp Regular
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    Believe me sir, I require no explanation, nor lecture, on the generation of theoretical and/or empirical models, given my line of work.

    Your response here is inadequate; your cited examples are but a small sample of a large pool. Furthermore, If you refuse to admit the complexity of weather/climate models, I do fear our conversation here is over.

    I have already explained (insufficiently perhaps), that this has become a political matter, and consequently is not deserving of our attention.
     
  4. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Thats not what you did. You listed three impact sources, all of which are largely irrelevant (as a source of uncertainty) to mainstream climate modeling. Then you cried - believe me, its complexity thats made political here for nefarious reasons.

    Then you referred to personal (/professional?) status as proof. ;)

    My interpretation of your behavior is, that you picked up some reasonings for why climate change can not possibly be human made, from an ideological source, and ended with 'I'm better than you, I dont need any explaination - the only thing I need you to agree on is, that there are model uncertainties (none of which come from the issues you posted) --- at which point I (as in you) fill in uncertainty and doubt.'

    From what you posted, you know nothing about the issue at hand.

    So what exactly is your expertise? ;)
    -


    If you need this broken down even more. Because of a lack of actual ability to falsify projections 'into the future', because you only have one system - and it is highly complex. You go not with 'scientific proof' (falsification based), but with scientific consensus (scientific canon), thats based on something akin to 'expert intuition', but averaged out across most of your experts, who create models, that have to predict historical climate activity with a low degree of variance.

    Also - because of the amount of complexity you can add to your models, even currently - which exceeds computational modeling capacity, what 'obviously has to be in climate models', and 'by how much (resolution of constants)' - is impacted by scientific decision making. Meaning, opinions. Then in the end, you average all of it.

    So the idea, that soemwhere in there you need the concept of a master manipulator, who just leaves out the obviously important stuff (as per your proclamation, earth rotational axis, moon cycles and solar activity), to then get 'politically desired results', makes no sense, based on several principals. The most obvious of which would be - its freaking easy to hide influencing factors somewhere in the margins. (How about at the stage where you segment models just so you can calculate them (in segments) at all?)

    The idea, that - "No, no wait for it, its actually the solar cycle, and a meteor 100 lightyears away - someone, found out!" Is far more likely to be storytelling, than 'the specific filter bubbles capacity' to find a smoking gun of actual 'political manipulation'.


    The entire thing is based on - "we cant say for sure", "we acknowledge that we cant say for sure", "here is our best estimate, of what will happen", and "here are forty of the estimates averaged".

    So in essence, eff of with your story of 'its the solar cycle, thats the smoking gun, I know - because I know complexity'. ;)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Oct 23, 2020
  5. 0x3000027E

    0x3000027E GBAtemp Regular
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    Dear sir,

    It is unfortunate you have assumed my opinions on this matter to be nefarious.

    -I have never made claims that climate change was not "human made", nor otherwise, nor have I ever discussed the "cause" of climate change in this forum. It's a shame you would put these words in my mouth and guess at my position. So very askew from our previous interactions on this site; I am a bit disappointed!

    -My original comment, (which has now become lost among the political ramblings), was that it would be difficult for a younger individual, (not nearly removed from grade school), to provide an accurate account of weather models and their predictive power. It is a reasonable perspective, that is all.

    -I only disclose my profession to provide some merit to my opinion with respect to empirical/physical models and how they are generated. To claim instead I am somehow gloating is rather unfortunate. (I will refrain from revealing my profession here, in case you would further claim I am posturing).

    Certainly, so where have we gone astray? Do you still believe my motives are political, even though I have attempted to denounce such claims early in my conversation? On the other hand, why do you approach this matter with such conflict?

    Sighhhh, well sir, I have stated earlier that I wanted to leave this subject matter be. I only responded here to defend myself and my positions, which you have completely fabricated (and even went so far as to suppose what I might say). I hope we can have more meaningful conversation in the future.
     
  6. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Fair.

    I'm just irritated, by you listing earth rotational axis, lunar cycles (?), and solar flares, as sources of uncertainty - thats all. ;)

    Oh and projections, not estimates. Made that mistake myself, thought about correcting it, then didnt. Semantics..;)
     
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  7. 0x3000027E

    0x3000027E GBAtemp Regular
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    Fair enough, perhaps I was overreaching with those particular examples. A bit exaggerated, perhaps.
    I sincerely believe this matter does not deserve our attention, let us leave this be.
     
  8. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    *postpostingabouthowactualgoalsenactedintenyearstimewillchangehowsocietyfunctionsfundamentallyapageago*

    *postsentireseriesofpostsonpoliticalandactivistdecisionmakingbeinginfluencedbyidentifyablepressuregroups*

    *postsaboutstructuredaffortstoinfluencechildrentotheninfluenceboomersbehaviorally*
    (To then provide investments needed. Also posted example of nudges in actual financial sector regulations I believe. (Like when the EU made it mandatory for every financial institution to also provide financial council on a 'sustainable option', when you are investing money with them.).)
    edit: Basically stuff like this:
    https://katten.com/esg-and-sustainable-finance-the-european-perspective

    *postsaboutactulsocietaleffortsinbehavioralmodificationusingachangeinsocialnorms*

    *postsaboutresultsofinternationalconferencesalteringtheconceptionofwhateconomicgrowthis*

    *postsactualworkinggroups(thinktanks)effortstoalterthedefinitionofwhateconomicgrowthis*
    https://gbatemp.net/threads/what-are-alternative-economic-indicators.572607/

    *postsunsecretarygeneralsremarksonhowtousengostoinfluencenationalpolitics*

    *postsbillionsspendoneffortsbothforandagainstitusingactualexamples*
    (For: Costs and institutions involved on one artic factfinding mission on ice propagation properties.In this thread. Against: Rumored fossile fuel money financing the entire election campaign of the current supreme court replacement of SBJ. And the entire judicial system (making up procedural entities, under 20 different names, but having them financed by 4-5 private entities). In the SBJ thread.)

    'But I think, that no attention is the right amount of attention.'

    Sure, sure... ;)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Oct 23, 2020
  9. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Looked that one up again:

    EU regulation for financial services, having come into place this year:

    https://www.ashurst.com/en/news-and-insights/legal-updates/esg-disclosures-regulation/

    See also PWG ESG Paper page 7:
    https://www.pwc.at/de/dienstleistungen/Advisory/esg-paper.pdf

    Resulting organisational requirements:
    https://www.regulationtomorrow.com/...ts-on-the-introduction-of-esg-considerations/

    Thats nudging.

    edit: Or in plain english:
    https://www.somo.nl/new-eu-law-obliges-investors-to-disclose-sustainability-risks/

    Thats nudging.
     
    Last edited by notimp, Oct 23, 2020
  10. UltraSUPRA

    UltraSUPRA President Elect of the United States of Reality
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    Here's my two cents.

    For years, a huge climate disaster has been around two years away. Did it ever come? No.
    Besides, even if global warming was real (which it isn't), what's the solution? Destroying our only method of communication during this endemic?
     
  11. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Oh yeah, thats on top of the role of the EIBs:
    https://www.eib.org/en/about/priorities/climate-action/index.htm

    On top of making the CBA mechanism a new direct income source for the EU budget.
    https://wiiw.ac.at/getting-serious-...en-deal-with-a-carbon-border-tax-dlp-5390.pdf

    On top of the JTF:
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/cl...limate-policy-endures-rough-eu-budget-summit/

    On top of germanys green bond vehicle to absorb investment risk:
    https://www.ceps.eu/germanys-inaugural-green-bond-not-so-green-after-all/

    On top of the long term commitment from the EU budget:
    https://www.euronews.com/2020/01/14...ke-europe-the-first-climate-neutral-continent

    ...

    ;)

    — Posts automatically merged - Please don't double post! —

    If you only would read. Like - ever.. ;)

    Posted the proposed action plan to make germany climate neutral by 2050 - two days ago.

    You quadruple solar capacity until 2030, you triple offshore wind capacity, and you almost double on shore wind capacity.

    Read the rest here:
    https://www.agora-energiewende.de/e...w-germany-can-become-climate-neutral-by-2050/

    Its like talking to morons.

    'No its not true...'
    'But its actually happening.'
    'No, but even if true, how?'

    How can I ever take any of your opinions in other fields seriously? ;)

    You have a mind thats literally resistant to reality at this point.

    Thats two people that are telling me 'no I dont believe this is real' and 'I dont believe this is important to like, look at' back to back - after I told them how actual implementation would look like.. ;)

    PS: Agora Energiewende is a joint initiative of the Mercator Foundation and the European Climate Foundation.

    The European Climate Foundation is funded by the Nationale Postcode Loterij, The Arcadia Fund, The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, The ClimateWorks Foundation, The McCall MacBain Foundation, Oak Foundation and The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.
     
    Last edited by notimp, Oct 24, 2020
  12. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Last edited by notimp, Oct 29, 2020
  13. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Freaking paywall... ft article is accessable without a paywall, when visiting from google news.

    So go here, and click on the first link:
    https://news.google.com/search?q=South Korea follows Japan and China in carbon neutral pledg&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en

    edit: Content dump:
     
    Last edited by notimp, Oct 29, 2020
  14. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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  15. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Last edited by notimp, Oct 31, 2020
  16. UltraSUPRA

    UltraSUPRA President Elect of the United States of Reality
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  17. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    https://thebulletin.org/2020/04/britain-has-139-tons-of-plutonium-thats-a-real-problem/

    Uranium isnt much better. Neither is Thorium.

    Also that stuff stays highly problematic for thousands of years.
    Then you have end of life problems ( https://www.dw.com/en/series-of-french-radiation-leaks-raise-new-safety-concerns/a-3511480 ) as all reactors are built for a finite lifetime, And then you are still using up a quite rare, limited resource. Which becomes an issue, if everyone in the world switches to it.

    Short summery here: https://justenergy.com/blog/pros-and-cons-of-nuclear-energy-safety-cost-efficiency/ (Actuallly reads like PR, so be aware, but al least they list the negatives as well. All search results I came up with trying to find sources for the negatives for 5 minutes read like PR, btw - which is... interesting.)

    On top of that you have the social exceptance issue. And accidents.

    So - some countries will use it. But expanding the usage far beyond its current scope, is an issue. (Problems increase with it.)

    edit: Also they are rather expensive up front, which you dont want, if you want to switch to higher clean energy usage rather quickly, at the same time as you increase reliance on electrical energy (because you want to phase out petrol and coal.).

    edit: Here is the "not that cheap" argument. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants
     
    Last edited by notimp, Nov 10, 2020
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