So when do we see the end of disc based media?

[Mangofett]

considering optical discs grow in capacity every couple of years, it will be a long ass time. if it happens.

the cassette faded out due to lack of technology, output and recording time. among other things.

To provve your point:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc

Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) is an optical disc technology which would hold up to 3.9 terabytes (TB) of information.

 

[Harsky]

considering optical discs grow in capacity every couple of years, it will be a long ass time. if it happens.

the cassette faded out due to lack of technology, output and recording time. among other things.

To provve your point:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc

Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) is an optical disc technology which would hold up to 3.9 terabytes (TB) of information.

A bit over kill? Granted AGES ago, no-one even imagined we would need more than a 1GB HDD.

But almost 4TB? Unless broadband is upgraded to the point that 1GB connection is standard everywhere, I won't be able to fill that up now.

 

[striderx]

Sony/Philips hit on a pretty good form factor in developing the orginal CD. It's survived three subsequent generations of data formats. Smaller disks like the mini-CD & miniDVD±R give it versatility.

This form factor has given technology developers a standard canvass on which to make each new generation. And the great thing is that it's comparatively trival to make them backward compatible as each new format is introduced. Any obstacles to that so far have been because of IP issues not technology.

Flash memory will always be more expensive than disc-based. The latest manufacturing processes require investments of billions (yeah, with a B) of dollars to establish, the process takes much longer and is more material intensive. On the other hand even the most expensive disc based production can be done with millions of dollars investment, can be done almost anywhere and for literally pennies a disc in volume.

You talk of cheap, high capacity flash memory as the medium. Consider that today an 8GB flash drive costs only, lets say, $100. Well that's before you put the content on it to the tune of no less than $20.

Hmmm... Spiderman 3 on DVD or BluRay for $20, or a 480p (DVD quality) version on an 8GB flash for $120? And we're not even talking about HD yet!

As for streaming or downloads replacing physical media? For too many people it doesn't add up. As much as you might wish otherwise, most consumers do not worship at the altar of their PC or media center. It's still to complicated for the average soccer mom to deal with this crap. There are millions of people with digital cameras that take them to Wal-Mart, have their pictures printed, and hopefully burned to a CD or DVD, and then they erase the card. Never putting them in the computer... Ya think they're gonna go without a disc for their movies? Not anytime soon.

Plus with portable DVD's and players in mini-vans, etc... a hardware media like the disc has a long life.

I think if there isn't another HD format introduction (and I think the public won't tolerate another for a long time), those disc formats will have a long life... iTunes IMO is an anomoly because unlike movies, music can be divied up into nice little 2 or 3MB nuggets that sell for pennies and are easy to download. That ain't gonna happen with blockbuster Hollywood titles.

JMO.

striderx

P.S. - I'm not saying the Blu-Ray or HD-DVD are the end-all be-all of media, just that a cheap physical media of the established disc form factor, not flash or streaming, will remain a major if not dominat player for a long time.

 

[amptor]

So, when do you think disc based media will phase out? I mean, we already have flash cards that can hold more then a dual layer DVD. It's only a matter of time until the price comes down. All this fuss about which of the 3 HD formats is gonna win just doesn't matter. HD discs aren't the future, flash based media is.

When they come out with an affordable reliable and fast accessing holographic format. Hard drives are cheap now too, which keeps me away from bluray. Problem with laser disc media is that the substrate can fade in UV light and the metal used inside can oxidize. CD's aren't intended to really last more than 10 years. However I believe there's a possibility that with the materials they use in some of these, it might block out a lot of the oxidation. It depends on how well they were fabricated.

 

[Hadrian]

I hate discs so easy to scratch, plus the stuff that reads them messes up a lot. It nice to own actual films and what not but I'd prefer if it was all digital to be honest. Only problem with digital is that even if you pay for the stuff you don't feel that you've bought something.

 

[Harsky]

On the subject of downloadable content, I quite like how Valve Steam gives you the option to burn the game you buy from Steam onto a blank disc. Granted not everyone will know how to burn discs (I was one when I first got a PC). Physical content is really only important to people who would like to display on their shelf

 

[pikachucrackpipe]

considering optical discs grow in capacity every couple of years, it will be a long ass time. if it happens.

the cassette faded out due to lack of technology, output and recording time. among other things.

To provve your point:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc

Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) is an optical disc technology which would hold up to 3.9 terabytes (TB) of information.

A bit over kill? Granted AGES ago, no-one even imagined we would need more than a 1GB HDD.

But almost 4TB? Unless broadband is upgraded to the point that 1GB connection is standard everywhere, I won't be able to fill that up now.

idk dude with the amount of multimedia stuff i have (and still not done ripping, encoding, etc) i'm near 1tb

as disk space gets cheaper and cheaper capacity is only going to get bigger and bigger.