"Little Jimmy" never was Nintendo's focus for the switch. Here, read this PDF Nintendo released yesterday:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171031_2e.pdf
As you can see, nintendo has clearly been targeting the young adult demographic, and it seems to be working. It makes sense, all there ads show young adults using the switch. I've only seen two ads featuring children for the switch, and their appearance was very short. Nintendo's trying to reach that child demographic with the 3ds by making it as their "family" console (which I still don't think is going to save the 3ds, it's fate is sealed and it'll probably die sometime next year imo).
While yes, the switch isn't getting cod wwii or destiny 2 (probably two of the biggest holiday releases/ console sellers), you can't deny that it is extremely impressive the amount of third party support they've drummed up in such a sort time after coming of virtually no third party support for the Wii u. Its gotten fifa, nba2k, wwe, doom, Skyrim, l.a. noire and rocket league all within a relatively short period. The two big things that the switch has going for it are:
1. Combination of good first party (also some third party) games (Zelda isn't a system seller by itself, neither is Mario; however, combine those with Splatoon 2 and mk8 deluxe and you have a pretty good first party lineup that would convince someone to buy a switch)
2. Portability. Portability is probably the switch's best selling point and from what I've seen and it seems to be working (refer back to that PDF; more people use handheld mode than docked mode). I have no idea how many times I've heard people excited about Skyrim, a six year old game, because they can play it on the go.
I agree that the switch isn't going to be another Wii or ds; I stick by my 50 million lifetime sales for it (although I might have to bump that number up depending how the holidays go). Smartphones have that kid and housewife demographic swooped up no doubt. But what about people that want a more traditional gaming experience but have a busy life and aren't home a lot/ don't want a console hooked up to their tv all the time? That's where the switch steps in, and I think those busy people are some of the ones buying the switch.
To conclude, I'd say that the switch will see a boost during the holidays, but I don't expect it to be too big IF the PS4 and Xbox one s are going to get the discounts as have been rumored. Personally I see Ninty hitting 11-12 million switches by March 3. There's only 4 months until then, and I really doubt Nintendo can sell almost 6.4 million switches to hit that goal of 14 million, even with the holiday boost.