Hacking My prediction on how homebrew will finally come about on the WiiU mode

[Kupie]

We now know that fail0verflow and other groups won't release anything at all, I think we're looking at this the wrong way where Homebrew will come before Piracy for most of us who care.

We know that Nintendo has locked down the WiiU, much like they locked down the 3DS. We also know for sure that a few tough methods came out for the 3DS, and we're finally getting around to getting publicly available homebrew because of a piracy device coming out for it.

I think that a group will work on hacking the WiiU to release a product and make money off of it, just like Gateway did with the 3DS. Piracy will come before Homebrew. After a while, we'll learn how they did it and make our own "Launcher.dat", so to say.

Thoughts?

 

[GregoryRasputin]

I personally think that Piracy will be the first, after all the ODDE makers have been given what they need to make it possible for piracy on the Wii U.

This is the way its always going to be, until games consoles stop being made.

 

[OptimusDark]

I think the same way.
Finding exploits, Developping Custom firmwares and spending a lot of time working around HW Securities... that is the only way to "Freebrew" the WiiU.
Selling a piracy system can give some motivation for all this. By the way, stll not available....
Wiikey team is probably waiting a little longer for more quality games to be available and also more WiiU potential customers.
Only then, they will release their product.

If they release it too soon, Nintendo'll have time to patch up his internal system... if SW unpatachable, they'll do it by HW patch for new WiiUs.

 

[Ray Lewis]

All speculative. Maybe they happen at the same time? Lol.

 

[the_randomizer]

Newsflash, you can't have one without the other happening, irrespective of the order it happens. Always has, always will be that way. No going around it.

 

[Kupie]

Hmm... the way I see it, piracy should happen. Then fail0verflow can get over themselves and release homebrew methods

 

[Foxi4]

I believe that Homebrew will be the first to become public, and here's my reasoning: the Wii U is not a particularly successful system on the market, I think we can safetly say that now. There's no reason for ODDE developers to release any products for it as of now, as only a small fraction of the total userbase is insterested in a piracy solution, especially an expensive, hardware-based one - there's very little money to be made here. Homebrew developers on the other hand have no such inhibitions as homebrew is a non-profit venture, so the market situation of the system doesn't influence it nearly as much - what matters is the dedication of the developers.

 

[the_randomizer]

I believe that Homebrew will be the first to become public, and here's my reasoning: the Wii U is not a particularly successful system on the market, I think we can safetly say that now. There's no reason for ODDE developers to release any products for it as of now, as only a small fraction of the total userbase is insterested in a piracy solution, especially an expensive, hardware-based one - there's very little money to be made here. Homebrew developers on the other hand have no such inhibitions as homebrew is a non-profit venture, so the market situation of the system doesn't influence it nearly as much - what matters is the dedication of the developers.

The question now is, will they actually develop homebrew for the Wii U and actually get the scene on track? That's the thing. OODE is useless in this situation, hardware solutions be damned I hope that there is soft mod someday.

 

[Snailface]

I believe that Homebrew will be the first to become public, and here's my reasoning: the Wii U is not a particularly successful system on the market, I think we can safetly say that now. There's no reason for ODDE developers to release any products for it as of now, as only a small fraction of the total userbase is insterested in a piracy solution, especially an expensive, hardware-based one - there's very little money to be made here. Homebrew developers on the other hand have no such inhibitions as homebrew is a non-profit venture, so the market situation of the system doesn't influence it nearly as much - what matters is the dedication of the developers.

If they can manage to sell only 50,000 units (a little over 1% of wiiu install base) at a net profit of $20 per ODDE unit, they will net a million dollars for less than a year's work. Keep in mind as a black market product, there is no tax. You don't think they can manage that?

Here's something that wololo wrote that backs up what i'm saying a bit.
http://wololo.net/2014/01/19/ninten...-blames-competitors-for-their-shady-practice/

 

[FPSRussi4]

f0f said it best:Writing homebrew software and frameworks is rather difficult - it requires new code to be written to support the hardware, which must be reverse engineered first. Convincing a game console to load copied games is comparatively simpler, as only the bare minimum amount of code patches required to convince the game/OS to load the game from alternate storage media are required.

 

[Foxi4]

If they can manage to sell only 50,000 units (a little over 1% of install base) at a net profit of $20 per unit, they will net a million dollars for less than a year's work. Keep in mind as a black market product, there is no tax. You don't think they can manage that?

Here's something that wololo wrote that backs up what i'm saying a bit.
http://wololo.net/2014/01/19/ninten...-blames-competitors-for-their-shady-practice/

You're assuming that the product will sell at a very high profit margin there. Assuming that it would sell at around $89-$100 a piece, I don't think it would cover the expense of creating a manufacturing line specifically for it, spending time and money to code a firmware and a launcher, then packaging and finally shipping the complete device, and even if it would, the "company" wouldn't be making buckets of cash. That "one mirrion dorra" wouldn't appear on their doorstep Day 1 - it would come in small chunks as the product sells, and those chunks have to be sufficient to run the business.

Additionally, this isn't so much a question on whether or not they could make money, rather a question of whether or not they could make more money off of something else. Using that very same production line and those very same coder, you could just as well release a PS3 or an XBox 360 ODDE and make buckets of cash instead.

 

[the_randomizer]

Screw the backup loader I say.

 

[Celice]

I don't really get the question, as both are usually heralded at the same time. What allows for one allows for the other.

I think the poll is actually asking what will be more used/popular/researched at first, that will most likely be piracy, because its interest audience is far wider than those who would be interested in homebrew.

 

[Yepi69]

There's no piracy without homebrew because you need homebrew made files in order to access piracy methods.

 

[the_randomizer]

Can't have one without the other, plain and simple. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

 

[Snailface]

You're assuming that the product will sell at a very high profit margin there. Assuming that it would sell at around $89-$100 a piece, I don't think it would cover the expense of creating a manufacturing line specifically for it, spending time and money to code a firmware and a launcher, then packaging and finally shipping the complete device, and even if it would, the "company" wouldn't be making buckets of cash. That "one mirrion dorra" wouldn't appear on their doorstep Day 1 - it would come in small chunks as the product sells, and those chunks have to be sufficient to run the business.

Additionally, this isn't so much a question on whether or not they could make money, rather a question of whether or not they could make more money off of something else. Using that very same production line and those very same coder, you could just as well release a PS3 or an XBox 360 ODDE and make buckets of cash instead.

The xbox and ps3 already have paid piracy device solutions (and worse, free solutions), why not sell to a different market that is completely under-served with no free alternatives? Also, the numbers I chose were intentionally low to show my point. I think they could do better for profit margins and unit sales, even with an unpopular system (which still has an install of about 4 mil i might add).

The issue of start up costs is likely moot because we're talking about off-the-shelf parts for the odde here. All they have to do is put in a reasonably high order count and they'll get a good wholesale price. This is also likely to not be some start-up, but an established team that already has the money for such a purchase.

 

[Foxi4]

The xbox and ps3 already have paid piracy device solutions, why not sell to a different market that is completely under-served? Also, the numbers I chose were intentionally low to show my point. I think they could do better for profit margins and unit sales, even with an unpopular system (which still has an install of about 4 mil i might add).

The issue of start up costs is likely moot because we're talking about off-the-shelf parts for the odde here. All they have to do is put in a reasonably high order count and they'll get a good wholesale price. This is also likely to not be some start-up, but an established team that already has the money for such a purchase.

*Shrugs* I dunno man, I think those "established teams" that have been in this game for several console generations probably have a knack for telling which venture is profitable and which isn't. Even if they have the resources to make a production line for the ODDE and even if it's made with off-the-shelf parts, the whole matter still has to be properly designed, automated etc.

 

[duffmmann]

I can't help but think about how people would inject VC titles with games that weren't available on the VC. We know that GBA and DS games are coming to the Wii U VC, and long ago there was mumblings that the GC may come to the VC (still might, will have to wait a while I'm sure for that day to come, it would make a lot of sense though given how aside from the 3DS all Nintendo consoles and handhelds (Virtual Boy notwithstanding) aside from GC games are going to be playable on the Wii U officially. (that is assuming they also eventually put GB/GBC games on the VC since the GBA is coming, though that may not happen since the 3DS is tackling the handhelds for its VC)).
Anyway, if this were to happen, I just start to wonder if we'd be able to inject GC games into official GC VC titles, or at the very least DS games into official DS VC titles. As decent as Nintendont and DeSmuME are, it'd be really handy to have a much more stable and (I assume) greater compatibility for these other sytem's games on the Wii U.

 

[NFG]

I for one hope it is Homebrew. I think the Wii U would make a fantastic cheap home theater hub, along with the gamepad. I have a Linux HTPC box and as much as I love it, I would gladly give it up for a Wii U running XBMC. Having one device to play games, watch TV shows, and movies would be great. I haven't had cable in 5 years, so XBMC is badass for this.

Before I bought the Wii U I did use CFG on my Wii because the drive stopped working , but I still bought all the games and would use a friends Wii to dump the games to the external HDD. Now that I have a Wii U no need for the modded Wii. So I don't really support pirating games.

Although, I do think backing up games should be allowed. I will also say having all the games on a HDD is way easier when you have a 6 year old. It was funny that I had to teach him how to eject and insert games into the Wii U. He was really confused on this new concept lol. He had been using the Wii since he was like 4 this way. He had been so used to using the Wii and picking out his games via the CFG menu.

Sorry I got a little off topic.

TLR Go Homebrew!

 

[FPSRussi4]

I can't help but think about how people would inject VC titles with games that weren't available on the VC. We know that GBA and DS games are coming to the Wii U VC, and long ago there was mumblings that the GC may come to the VC (still might, will have to wait a while I'm sure for that day to come, it would make a lot of sense though given how aside from the 3DS all Nintendo consoles and handhelds (Virtual Boy notwithstanding) aside from GC games are going to be playable on the Wii U officially. (that is assuming they also eventually put GB/GBC games on the VC since the GBA is coming, though that may not happen since the 3DS is tackling the handhelds for its VC)).
Anyway, if this were to happen, I just start to wonder if we'd be able to inject GC games into official GC VC titles, or at the very least DS games into official DS VC titles. As decent as Nintendont and DeSmuME are, it'd be really handy to have a much more stable and (I assume) greater compatibility for these other sytem's games on the Wii U.

I wanted to do that for 3DS. I'm really hoping they bring SNES titles to 3DS, I really want to play LTTP on it.