1. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    Last edited by alexander1970, Jun 30, 2020
  2. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    In Austria? No.

    In Austria the case number was so low, that it almost didnt make sense to start with the percent calculations.. ;) In Austria, if anything the harm produced by the general shut down arguably is greater than the gain. You had to though, because you couldnt know at the time you had to decide.

    Here use this and daily new infection rate to track it. If you don't see 'hockey stick' - like new infection rate developments, we are good for a while.
    [​IMG]
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/austria/

    (Less than 1% increase in daily new infections would be much preferable in addition. :) )

    The news you posted is just part of monitoring, and tells politics, when to remind citicens 'not to fuck it up'. ;)

    Thats just part of the constant feedback. Shortly after a curfew it should be expected that people want to act 'more carefree' than they should, you have to see how that develops, and then maybe demand that people wear masks in supermarkets again, or layer in other measures.
    -

    edit: Currently infected is 551 according to data, lets double that for good measure and say 1000 people, even if that number increased by 1% every day for two years, and never fell, we'd be good (1.3 million infected). ;) (Stupid and unlikely scenario.)

    edit2: Here look at daily new cases:
    If you see that:
    [​IMG]
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/ you do something.

    If you see that:
    [​IMG]
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
    - you dont. (at least for quite a while).
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jun 30, 2020
  3. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    And if you are the US you ask yourself, when the heck you reach peak, or sufficient test capacity is available.. ;) (You are expected to reach peak in July or August, or were before the mass protests.)
    [​IMG]
    src: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Remember Trump 'we dont want to test, because the more we test the higher the numbers get?' - yeah.. ;)
    https://khn.org/morning-breakout/me...ore-people-means-a-higher-case-count-for-u-s/


    Looking at the testing mismatch in the US - Austrias peak daily new infection rate is at 1.5k, the US one is at 45k, thats a difference of 30x. Difference in population size is 36x. - so maybe they are ramping up testing capacity now, that they want to know, when they reach peak (Juli August, later?)? *googlegoogle* -- No. ;)
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health...why-us-is-struggling-with-coronavirus-testing
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jun 30, 2020
  4. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Ahm - not good... US ramped up testing capacity from mid march to mid june, then stayed there.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    So the entire ramp up you see in daily new infections in the US recently, is at a stable testing capacity. *nggg*
    [​IMG]

    src: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

    edit: Lets think this further.. :)
    At a stable testing capacity which according to the pbs article Harvard has called 3x too low. So lets take peak today times three (45x3=135k) and compare that with Austrias peak of 1.5k, thats 90x larger, while population difference is only 36x, and while the US likely hasnt reached peak, and while the width of the daily new cases bell curve likely will be wider than the one in austria (curfew compliance in austria was great, in the US - not).

    So the Covid-19 outbreak should be at least 3x worse in in the US.

    Lets look at death figures in comparison: 129000/703=183 expected difference would be again 36x but it is 183x, which is a factor of five.

    So the Covid Crisis in the US currently is at least 3-5x worse? ;) High margin of error throughout this calculation.. ;) And thats 'overall' because looking at today only, Austria already is at the 'petering out' stage, US hasnt even reached peak yet... ;)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jun 30, 2020
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  5. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    We will see.....
    My "personal" Prediction is a second and bigger Outbreak/Wave (also a Lock Down again) in the next 2 Weeks in Austria.

    And I really pray to God I am totally wrong....
     
  6. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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  7. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    This Week the Holidays starts...
    On Sunday we "must" have the F1 Grand Prix with 100s of People from "outside"....
    The "Public Parties" on Beaches/River Banks and so on getting more an more....
    "Keep Distance" ?? -> no longer,it is very funny to see how Customers in Shops search for "Cuddle contact" on the Cashdesk...
    People who still wearing Masks are often laughed at or "fooled behind the Hand".....(very mature by the Way.....)
    Remember like in January the Austrian (ORF) Media did about China......

    No,we did not have learned anything from this....
    And it will happen again soon...we are too dumb.....
     
    Last edited by alexander1970, Jun 30, 2020
  8. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Yes, but risks are known. Large events only get permissions if they produce a 'Covid19 strategy' (so only masks or social distancing space, and with number limits). For public beaches I havent looked up how it is handled, but I presume they also will disperse crowds there, when they become too many. (People then remember that and not go to the beach the next day.. ;) )

    Its not back to normal - its this strange controlled thing, where we try to find the correct amount of openness.

    I'm positive, that at some point within the next two years some measures might be reinstated (if only to remind the public, that it isnt over yet), but that isnt back to curfews yet.

    Also remember that people working in closed rooms has been a bigger issue for contagion, than beach parties, so its all relative.. :) Also for austria absolute case numbers have been really really low - antibody tests have confirmed that. Official case number is 0.2% of the population, double that for good measure to 0.4% - but that was before the curfew. Looking at current active cases in country (thats the 550 value above) and doubling that, its 0.01% (so one infected person in 1000).

    If one of them infects three people (which they shouldnt, because meassures) during the entire duration of his/her illness - we then have what? 3.000 more cases in Austria in 2 weeks? ;) And even that is unlikely, because most of them should/will be self isolating. What I'm saying is that the absolute number in Austria is so low, that worst case scenario, we still get a month or two of shooting the breeze before we'd have to do anything.. ;) And we are not doing nothing at the moment, so new infection rate shouldnt be growing exponentially, and as soon as we push reproduction number below 1 (if half of the people that have Covid-19 self isolate, reproduction number should move from 3 closer to 1.5 on that alone), we have exponential decline. :)

    So for austria the entire thing should be more than managable from now on. Its just not back to normal quite yet, and probably also not for the next 2 years. But close to it - if we keep following social distancing guidelines.

    Lets see if I am wrong and something unexpected happens. :)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jun 30, 2020
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  9. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    As said,I really hope I am wrong.:)
     
  10. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    A little Update from little Austria:
    https://orf.at/stories/3172325/
    The number of sufferers rose again by three figures
    According to current data from the Ministry of Health (as of today, 11:00 a.m.), the number of people suffering from an infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus rose by 106 compared to the previous day - and is currently 959.

    Not really a "big" Cluster...
    https://ooe.orf.at/stories/3056500/
    Abattoirs in Upper Austria CoV positive
    An outbreak of the corona virus has affected three large meat processing companies in the districts of Ried, Wels-Land and Braunau with a total of twelve infected.

    And in Spielberg they all wear bravely their Mouthmasks correct and disciplined.
    0943612.jpg 0943577.jpg
    0943582.jpg
    ooops,wrong Picture,sorry......

    And my local Burger King is closed since last Monday ("technical Issues...)
    ...no Statement from Burger King or the local Magistrate until today......


    As in a very well known austrian Christmas Song......."All is calm,all is bright...."





    And please be careful in these Days,to draw other People attention to "Keep your distance".....

    https://ooe.orf.at/stories/3056512/
    Controversy over distance: pensioner injured
    A 73-year-old was attacked and seriously injured by an unknown person after a dispute over the safety distance according to the Covid 19 rules in the parking lot of a food discounter in Ried.
     
  11. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    In Upper Austria the Restrictions getting again "stronger"...

    https://orf.at/stories/3172349/

    Measures in the fight against the corona virus are being tightened in Upper Austria. Specifically, the mask requirement will be reintroduced in the country's official buildings. The reason is the large number of new infections, and there are now also first cases in slaughterhouses. Upper Austria also becomes a laboratory for regional tightening after the loosening.

    From Tuesday, July 7th, mouth-nose protection must be worn again in all official buildings in the state of Upper Austria. Governor Thomas Stelzer (ÖVP) announced this in a press release on Sunday. It had become known a few hours earlier that CoV infections had also been found in three Upper Austrian slaughterhouses.

    Stelzer also called on the cities and municipalities to follow the example and to temporarily reintroduce the mask requirement in their areas of activity. In Upper Austria there was again a large increase in coronavirus infections over the weekend. On Sunday, 359 people were actively ill.
    People with protective masks on the street
    debate
    What can Austria expect in autumn?

    Clusters and school closings
    A few days before, it had become public that there was an infection cluster around a free church. As a result, schools and childcare facilities were closed in the districts of Linz, Linz-Land, Wels, Wels-Land and Urfahr-Umgebung. And now the country-wide measures will be imposed.

    Stelzer justified the order, particularly in district capitals and offices with citizen service and a particularly large number of personal contacts.


    Really learned from the Past....
     
  12. Hanafuda

    Hanafuda GBAtemp Addict
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    Has anyone noticed that back in March the news was how many Covid-19 deaths were taking place, but now the news is how many new cases there are? I mean, if you read the news you'd think it was horrendously bad out there ... so many records being broken daily for the number of new cases. Holy Shit!!!

    The media isn't looking into whether hospitalizations have increased though, or checking up on how many Covid-19 related deaths are taking place now. Either that, or they're not telling us for some reason? Naw, couldn't be. I mean, why wouldn't they want the public to know good news like that?

    Total number of Covid-19 related deaths in the USA, week of 04/11-04/18, 2020: 16,373

    Total number of Covid-19 related deaths in the USA, week of 06/20-06/27, 2020: 313

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
     
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  13. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    Nobody wants good News today from the Medias.:rofl2:
     
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  14. omgcat

    omgcat GBAtemp Regular
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    people are sitting in the ICU's for 2-3 months before dying now. Another issue is as the ICU capacities overfill, standard emergencies become death sentences, stroke? too bad full ICU. bad childbirth scenario? 1 if not 2 deaths because filled up ICU. bad car accident? too fucking bad we filled our ICU's with an easily preventable illness. That is why it's about how many new cases.

    https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavi...arizona-152-medical-personnel-sent-in-to-help

    https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2020/07/05/4-pinellas-county-hospitals-report-full-icus

    anyone with an above room temp IQ can see that we have at least 3-4 weeks of exponential growth locked in because of wishy washy i don't wanna wear the mask non-sense, on top of random house parties, and 1000+ people conventions with no social distancing and mask requirements.
     
    Last edited by omgcat, Jul 6, 2020
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  15. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    I believe this is the graph you are looking for.
    https://gbatemp.net/threads/the-med...r-the-coronavirus.559721/page-14#post-9103404

    Also you look at daily new infections first, death rate increase then follows in 14days to 2 months.. ;) US currently is seeing an exponential growthrate again in terms of new cases. :)

    Difference in death figures, is hard to tell, maybe 50k more over the year.. ;) (Thats a spitballed number.. ;) )
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jul 6, 2020
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  16. Hanafuda

    Hanafuda GBAtemp Addict
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    Yeah but that graph shows total global deaths as a running tally, not the death rate as time has passed. And, there may be other places in the world where the progress of the virus is just beginning to hit its peak, but that wave has already crashed in North America. 16,000 deaths in one week in April, but just over 300 deaths in a week in late June. The virus is losing its bite. If we were considering the human race as one big organism, we should all be wallowing in Covid-19 right now, at least the northern hemisphere, to force exposure and build herd immunity during deep summer while our immune response is best. Instead local governments keep us cowering indoors with masks on. Why?? So the "second wave" can hit just in time for the election? Yes, I do believe such a thing could be in their minds. Look at how Cuomo and DeBlasio handled NY and are now getting treated like heroes by the left ... they definitely have no problem using lives as ammo.


    You forgot to mention the tens of thousands of rioters in the streets partying looting burning every night for the last month+.

    Also, beware the semantics of hospital administrators. There's "full", then there's "ok really full," and then there's "we mean it this time, we're full." And even then they're not really "full." Follow the money.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/best-st...w-icu-capacity-reported-in-houston-criticized

     
    Last edited by Hanafuda, Jul 6, 2020
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  17. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Mostly true. :)

    I posted the graph to add a comparison to have it in some relation to other illnesses. Most of the world should actually be over the peak already (at least for this years strain.. ;) ), while the US was expected to hit it in august. (Not sure how the latest rise plays into that).

    Wrong mostly on 'virus is loosing its bite'. Virus is the same as it ever was. ;) Mostly 2-10% of population were affected at most, and before 60% you arent seeing statistical changes in propagation on its own. True that people working outside in warm weather slows it down. (Part of why meat processing plants are so highly affected all over the world is believed to be related to the low temperatures). But that we see it slowing down so much is mostly due to curfews and people changing behavior. Ohn and fewer people should die from it by now (roughly a third less) because we have some treatments that work.

    At the beginning you had a fairly high number of cases (presumably) in your population and needed to move that to as close to zero as possible, thats what the curfews were good for. It really was the only thing that worked for that purpose. So the result of the virus becoming less prominent was actually caused by those curfews (behavior changes (wash hands, wear masks)).

    Now if your number became really low - you now reap math benefits. ;) But if your number never really got that low, you dont. :) In the US the infection numbers increasing exponentially again, certainly is not the best of signs.. ;)

    Reason why media focused mostly on the deaths at first was, because scary stories sell, and you had no clue about infection numbers (test capacity was ramping up), and deaths were easier to count, and also support for medical institutions had to be developed.

    Why they asre now focusing on daily new infections ist because the number there changed dramatically. But that doesnt mean that there will be less deaths there, they just are delayed.. ;)

    In other countries they are focusing on daily new infections, because its the number that shows trends amplified and early, so - when you are monitoring, what to do with a country coming out of a curfew, you are looking at that.

    Looking at death figures simple would be 'a month late' for no reason.

    US could still add about 100k more deaths to its official figures over the year, but that should be roughly the amount you are dealing with, Probably even less. But its still a third of your deaths so far... ;)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jul 6, 2020
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  18. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    Mouthmask Restriction again in Upper Austria:
    https://orf.at/stories/3172600/

    In shops, shopping centers and service providers, customers and employees alike must wear mouth-to-nose protection and maintain a safe distance. In restaurants, guests must wear a mask again on the way to and from the table. This is not mandatory at the table, where up to ten people can sit. The personnel must also put on mouth and nose protection.

    In schools and kindergartens as well as in childcare facilities, the state is also returning to the "old, well-known rules", added Deputy Governor Haberlander. This means that from Thursday there is a mask requirement in the school building, the protection may only be removed at the seat. In kindergartens it applies that when the child is brought and brought, the person in question must be protected.

    Keep a safe distance outdoors. If this is not possible, a mask must also be used. "We believe that we can curb the growth of the disease again," said Stelzer. The mask regulation comes into force without time limit. A feeling of normalcy crept in with many. "But we are still in the middle of Corona." Now "what many predicted" had occurred.


    Really ? I am surprised......
     
  19. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    Carinthia is next - "preventive measure"

    https://orf.at/stories/3172750/

    Mask requirement in Carinthian holiday resorts

    The government of Carinthia announced on Wednesday that it would be mandatory to wear a mask for tourism hotspots for a limited period of time. The regulation, which is currently being drafted, is due to enter into force on Friday. In Velden and other locations on Lake Wörthersee, Faaker See and Klopeinersee, mouth-nose protection must be worn from 9:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m.

    The area of validity should be determined in good time by the responsible district authorities in consultation with tourists, it was said. As of Tuesday at 11 p.m., there were 14 coronavirus cases in Carinthia.

    Impressive appeals were not enough to prevent crowds in which a lot happens, just not taking care of distance and hygiene measures, Tourism Minister Sebastian Schuschnig (ÖVP) said in a video conference with journalists.

    He said it was a preventive measure. "Velden should not become summer Ischgl." The turmoil in the tourist resorts, especially on Lake Wörthersee, has been occupying authorities, restaurateurs and residents for weeks - more about this in kaernten.ORF.at.


    #####################################################################


    https://orf.at/stories/3172745/

    More border controls and travel warnings

    In view of the increasing number of coronavirus infections caused by returnees from abroad, the government is issuing further travel warnings and tightening border controls in the east. The government strongly advises against trips to Romania, Bulgaria and the Republic of Moldova, said Chancellor Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) in the press foyer after the Council of Ministers on Wednesday.

    The situation regarding Covid-19 had unfortunately worsened in the Balkans, and there were more and more cases of infections brought in from the East in Austria. "We are experiencing more and more introductions from abroad. Therefore, the urgent appeal not to travel to these countries, ”said Kurz. A 14-day quarantine obligation continues to apply to returnees from countries for which there is a travel warning.

    Anyone who violates this is not committing a trivial offense, but a serious violation and risking a fine of up to 1,450 euros. Those who test positive and break the quarantine are committing a criminal offense and must face significantly more severe penalties, Kurz said. Kurz announced that there would also be stricter controls on the provisions imposed, and border controls in the east would be doubled. "In particular, returnees from the Balkans will be checked." 1,800 police officers will be deployed.
     
  20. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Serbia retracted curfews too fast:
    https://www.derstandard.at/story/20...reitungen-bei-protesten-gegen-ausgangssperren (german)

    - and now has revolts in the streets, because they have to go into another set of curfews. People are angry, that this means another set of lost jobs.

    Daily new infection curves if you are interested:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/serbia/

    (If you google Aleksandar Vučić you can see Serbias prime minister fighting with tears during the press conference, although why would you..)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jul 8, 2020 at 12:14 PM
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