1. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    Last edited by alexander1970, Jun 30, 2020 at 6:13 AM
  2. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    In Austria? No.

    In Austria the case number was so low, that it almost didnt make sense to start with the percent calculations.. ;) In Austria, if anything the harm produced by the general shut down arguably is greater than the gain. You had to though, because you couldnt know at the time you had to decide.

    Here use this and daily new infection rate to track it. If you don't see 'hockey stick' - like new infection rate developments, we are good for a while.
    [​IMG]
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/austria/

    (Less than 1% increase in daily new infections would be much preferable in addition. :) )

    The news you posted is just part of monitoring, and tells politics, when to remind citicens 'not to fuck it up'. ;)

    Thats just part of the constant feedback. Shortly after a curfew it should be expected that people want to act 'more carefree' than they should, you have to see how that develops, and then maybe demand that people wear masks in supermarkets again, or layer in other measures.
    -

    edit: Currently infected is 551 according to data, lets double that for good measure and say 1000 people, even if that number increased by 1% every day for two years, and never fell, we'd be good (1.3 million infected). ;) (Stupid and unlikely scenario.)

    edit2: Here look at daily new cases:
    If you see that:
    [​IMG]
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/ you do something.

    If you see that:
    [​IMG]
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
    - you dont. (at least for quite a while).
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jun 30, 2020 at 10:16 AM
  3. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    And if you are the US you ask yourself, when the heck you reach peak, or sufficient test capacity is available.. ;) (You are expected to reach peak in July or August, or were before the mass protests.)
    [​IMG]
    src: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Remember Trump 'we dont want to test, because the more we test the higher the numbers get?' - yeah.. ;)
    https://khn.org/morning-breakout/me...ore-people-means-a-higher-case-count-for-u-s/


    Looking at the testing mismatch in the US - Austrias peak daily new infection rate is at 1.5k, the US one is at 45k, thats a difference of 30x. Difference in population size is 36x. - so maybe they are ramping up testing capacity now, that they want to know, when they reach peak (Juli August, later?)? *googlegoogle* -- No. ;)
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health...why-us-is-struggling-with-coronavirus-testing
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jun 30, 2020 at 10:30 AM
  4. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Ahm - not good... US ramped up testing capacity from mid march to mid june, then stayed there.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    So the entire ramp up you see in daily new infections in the US recently, is at a stable testing capacity. *nggg*
    [​IMG]

    src: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

    edit: Lets think this further.. :)
    At a stable testing capacity which according to the pbs article Harvard has called 3x too low. So lets take peak today times three (45x3=135k) and compare that with Austrias peak of 1.5k, thats 90x larger, while population difference is only 36x, and while the US likely hasnt reached peak, and while the width of the daily new cases bell curve likely will be wider than the one in austria (curfew compliance in austria was great, in the US - not).

    So the Covid-19 outbreak should be at least 3x worse in in the US.

    Lets look at death figures in comparison: 129000/703=183 expected difference would be again 36x but it is 183x, which is a factor of five.

    So the Covid Crisis in the US currently is at least 3-5x worse? ;) High margin of error throughout this calculation.. ;) And thats 'overall' because looking at today only, Austria already is at the 'petering out' stage, US hasnt even reached peak yet... ;)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jun 30, 2020 at 11:42 AM
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  5. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    We will see.....
    My "personal" Prediction is a second and bigger Outbreak/Wave (also a Lock Down again) in the next 2 Weeks in Austria.

    And I really pray to God I am totally wrong....
     
  6. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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  7. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    This Week the Holidays starts...
    On Sunday we "must" have the F1 Grand Prix with 100s of People from "outside"....
    The "Public Parties" on Beaches/River Banks and so on getting more an more....
    "Keep Distance" ?? -> no longer,it is very funny to see how Customers in Shops search for "Cuddle contact" on the Cashdesk...
    People who still wearing Masks are often laughed at or "fooled behind the Hand".....(very mature by the Way.....)
    Remember like in January the Austrian (ORF) Media did about China......

    No,we did not have learned anything from this....
    And it will happen again soon...we are too dumb.....
     
    Last edited by alexander1970, Jun 30, 2020 at 12:24 PM
  8. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Yes, but risks are known. Large events only get permissions if they produce a 'Covid19 strategy' (so only masks or social distancing space, and with number limits). For public beaches I havent looked up how it is handled, but I presume they also will disperse crowds there, when they become too many. (People then remember that and not go to the beach the next day.. ;) )

    Its not back to normal - its this strange controlled thing, where we try to find the correct amount of openness.

    I'm positive, that at some point within the next two years some measures might be reinstated (if only to remind the public, that it isnt over yet), but that isnt back to curfews yet.

    Also remember that people working in closed rooms has been a bigger issue for contagion, than beach parties, so its all relative.. :) Also for austria absolute case numbers have been really really low - antibody tests have confirmed that. Official case number is 0.2% of the population, double that for good measure to 0.4% - but that was before the curfew. Looking at current active cases in country (thats the 550 value above) and doubling that, its 0.01% (so one infected person in 1000).

    If one of them infects three people (which they shouldnt, because meassures) during the entire duration of his/her illness - we then have what? 3.000 more cases in Austria in 2 weeks? ;) And even that is unlikely, because most of them should/will be self isolating. What I'm saying is that the absolute number in Austria is so low, that worst case scenario, we still get a month or two of shooting the breeze before we'd have to do anything.. ;) And we are not doing nothing at the moment, so new infection rate shouldnt be growing exponentially, and as soon as we push reproduction number below 1 (if half of the people that have Covid-19 self isolate, reproduction number should move from 3 closer to 1.5 on that alone), we have exponential decline. :)

    So for austria the entire thing should be more than managable from now on. Its just not back to normal quite yet, and probably also not for the next 2 years. But close to it - if we keep following social distancing guidelines.

    Lets see if I am wrong and something unexpected happens. :)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Jun 30, 2020 at 12:12 PM
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  9. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    As said,I really hope I am wrong.:)
     
  10. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    A little Update from little Austria:
    https://orf.at/stories/3172325/
    The number of sufferers rose again by three figures
    According to current data from the Ministry of Health (as of today, 11:00 a.m.), the number of people suffering from an infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus rose by 106 compared to the previous day - and is currently 959.

    Not really a "big" Cluster...
    https://ooe.orf.at/stories/3056500/
    Abattoirs in Upper Austria CoV positive
    An outbreak of the corona virus has affected three large meat processing companies in the districts of Ried, Wels-Land and Braunau with a total of twelve infected.

    And in Spielberg they all wear bravely their Mouthmasks correct and disciplined.
    0943612.jpg 0943577.jpg
    0943582.jpg
    ooops,wrong Picture,sorry......

    And my local Burger King is closed since last Monday ("technical Issues...)
    ...no Statement from Burger King or the local Magistrate until today......


    As in a very well known austrian Christmas Song......."All is calm,all is bright...."





    And please be careful in these Days,to draw other People attention to "Keep your distance".....

    https://ooe.orf.at/stories/3056512/
    Controversy over distance: pensioner injured
    A 73-year-old was attacked and seriously injured by an unknown person after a dispute over the safety distance according to the Covid 19 rules in the parking lot of a food discounter in Ried.
     
  11. alexander1970

    OP alexander1970 Wuff Wuff.
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    In Upper Austria the Restrictions getting again "stronger"...

    https://orf.at/stories/3172349/

    Measures in the fight against the corona virus are being tightened in Upper Austria. Specifically, the mask requirement will be reintroduced in the country's official buildings. The reason is the large number of new infections, and there are now also first cases in slaughterhouses. Upper Austria also becomes a laboratory for regional tightening after the loosening.

    From Tuesday, July 7th, mouth-nose protection must be worn again in all official buildings in the state of Upper Austria. Governor Thomas Stelzer (ÖVP) announced this in a press release on Sunday. It had become known a few hours earlier that CoV infections had also been found in three Upper Austrian slaughterhouses.

    Stelzer also called on the cities and municipalities to follow the example and to temporarily reintroduce the mask requirement in their areas of activity. In Upper Austria there was again a large increase in coronavirus infections over the weekend. On Sunday, 359 people were actively ill.
    People with protective masks on the street
    debate
    What can Austria expect in autumn?

    Clusters and school closings
    A few days before, it had become public that there was an infection cluster around a free church. As a result, schools and childcare facilities were closed in the districts of Linz, Linz-Land, Wels, Wels-Land and Urfahr-Umgebung. And now the country-wide measures will be imposed.

    Stelzer justified the order, particularly in district capitals and offices with citizen service and a particularly large number of personal contacts.


    Really learned from the Past....
     
  12. Hanafuda

    Hanafuda GBAtemp Addict
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    Has anyone noticed that back in March the news was how many Covid-19 deaths were taking place, but now the news is how many new cases there are? I mean, if you read the news you'd think it was horrendously bad out there ... so many records being broken daily for the number of new cases. Holy Shit!!!

    The media isn't looking into whether hospitalizations have increased though, or checking up on how many Covid-19 related deaths are taking place now. Either that, or they're not telling us for some reason? Naw, couldn't be. I mean, why wouldn't they want the public to know good news like that?

    Total number of Covid-19 related deaths in the USA, week of 04/11-04/18, 2020: 16,373

    Total number of Covid-19 related deaths in the USA, week of 06/20-06/27, 2020: 313

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
     
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