Donald Trump impeachment investigation over Ukranian phone call...

Discussion in 'World News, Current Events & Politics' started by Taleweaver, Sep 25, 2019.

  1. Foxi4

    Foxi4 On the hunt...

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    I think it's more obvious why I was confused about your insistence on hard data now - it's always nice to have, but I thoyght what I was presenting was self-evident. :P Thank you for being a good sport about it, I'm glad we cleared things up.
     
  2. Xzi

    Xzi All your base are belong to the proletariat

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    I'm sure there's still some uncertainty left in the polls, but for 2016 I have to imagine a lot of that was generated solely from the fact that the other candidate was Hillary Clinton. The general mood on both sides was that these were the worst possible two candidates to have to choose from, and both were terrible in their own right. More recently, polls for the 2018 midterm election proved themselves accurate for the most part.

    Republican support would remain largely steady even if the economy crashed and Trump nuked Canada. It's independents that he has to worry about abandoning him in droves, and even though the economy is already showing several signs of a downturn, that's far from the only issue which concerns that voting bloc.
     
    Last edited by Xzi, Oct 21, 2019
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  3. Foxi4

    Foxi4 On the hunt...

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    In that case I can sleep quite soundly given the fact that his current opponents are "Creepy/Sleepy" Joe, Bernie "One Foot in the Grave" Sanders, Elizabeth "Fauxcahontas" Warren and an assortment of other sub-10% nominees who have no business running, like Pete "Butt"-igieg, "BETA" O'Rourke, Corey "Not In The House" Booker, Andrew "Eat Bugs and Live in a Can" Yang or Tulsi "Gabba-Gabba". I know exactly how this is going to end - Sanders will lose support because nobody wants a president who can't survive one term, let alone two, Warren will adopt his crazy rhetoric which will get her "primaried" and the voters will end up with having Joe represent them, a man with no convictions, a penchant for touching women inappropriately and a weird speech impediment. I don't think riding the coattails of Obama will be enough, but we'll see. To be fair, I do want to see a Clinton run, or Warren getting the nomination, simply because it would be very funny, and as you know, fun is my primary motivator.
     
  4. Xzi

    Xzi All your base are belong to the proletariat

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    The irony being that Donnie Dementia all but copy-pasted Bernie Sanders' platform in 2016 and delivered on none of it. I'm 99% sure that if he runs as a faux populist against the real thing he'll lose, Sanders has an across-the-aisle appeal that Trump can't match. For that matter, he's too scared to even go after Bernie on twitter, knowing that he'll be torn a new one if he does.

    Warren I have slightly less confidence in. She bridges the gap between progressives and centrist Dems fairly well, but her appeal to right-wing workers is likely far more limited for a number of reasons. Still, a pet rock could beat Trump in debates, and she's not a neoliberal that Fox News has had 40 years to run a smear campaign against like Hillary, so as long as she holds some events in Midwest states I'd put her chances of winning the head-to-head at around 75%.

    Biden is the Hillary of this election cycle, possibly even worse in some ways, so it's good to see the one guaranteed loser dropping in the polls already. Second place is still too high for him, but he's guaranteed to have more major gaffes and poor debate performances, so I don't think it'll be long before he's out of the top three.

    Remember: Clinton is the worst possible candidate the DNC could've picked in 2016, she ran the worst possible absentee campaign, and she still won the popular vote by about 3 million. Underestimate any potential 2020 nominee at your own peril.
     
    Last edited by Xzi, Oct 21, 2019
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  5. Foxi4

    Foxi4 On the hunt...

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    I'm not interested in consolation prizes, only the Grand Prix. Clinton can take that "achievement", I don't really mind or care. As far as Sanders is concerned, I can't believe you actually treat him as a serious candidate, even at this early stage of the game. The reason why Trump has left him alone for now is the simple fact that Bernie is unelectable and will inevitably drop out of the race in short order. He also does *not* have universal support, particularly not in the DNC which he betrayed in favour of going independent on a number of occasions. He seems to have "signed a non-aggression pact" with some of the more *cough cough* "red" candidates as well, which is a weird way to run a campaign, but I suppose it's a somewhat effective strategy if the intent is to diminish Biden's poll numbers. Good luck, you're going to need it if this is your prediction on how the Democratic nominations are going to play out.
     
  6. Xzi

    Xzi All your base are belong to the proletariat

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    Even dating back to 2016, Bernie is the one candidate on either side of the aisle that Trump would not attack for fear of losing some of his own working class support. His 2020 campaign isn't going anywhere any time soon either, he just held a New York rally which eclipsed every other candidate's in terms of attendance. Not to mention he's been beating out most of the other candidates in fundraising even without corporate donors.

    I didn't say he has universal support, but he does have a shot to emerge as the strongest candidate in the long run. I don't think he feels the need to attack any other candidate directly because he's been setting the Democratic agenda since 2016, and most of them have been slowly coming around to recognizing the legitimacy and the appeal of his platform.

    Luck's not really a factor, I'd be happiest to see Sanders win, and I'm fine with Warren winning. IIRC Biden has already been in three presidential primaries before this one and lost all of them, I fully expect that trend to continue. The only other two candidates I can't stand are Buttigieg and Klobuchar, but they're both the longest of long shots. Beyond that, I don't care who replaces Biden in the top three, at best they're competing for a VP spot anyway.
     
    Last edited by Xzi, Oct 21, 2019
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  7. Taleweaver
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    Taleweaver Storywriter

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    To get back on topic a bit: I just read that Francis Rooney, a republican congressman, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/19/francis-rooney-congressman-retirement-trump-impeachment]is open to the idea of an impeachment inquiry[/url] (meaning: he might vote to impeach, depending on the findings). He also announced his retirement.

    As a non-republican, the latter isn't exactly unexpected. Trump doesn't just bully around on twitter a bit, but keeps a grudge against anyone not loyal to him. And that certainly has an impact on the republican party. I can only think of three EDIT: wait...make that four... republicans daring to criticize the president:
    1) John McCain. Reason: he was dying
    2) Mitt Romney. Reason: he's too popular
    3) Francis Rooney. Reason: he's retiring
    4) James Mattis. Reason: he got fired (this is from just last week)

    Of course some partisanship is to be expected in any political party (what the h*** are you doing in a party if you disagree with everything?), but as a non-democrat I can say what I feel without being labeled as belonging to any party(1):

    The republican party now consists of a bunch of cowards. Trump isn't leading the republican party...he has BECOME the party. Everyone else is just there to uphold Trump's will. Reason nor ideology doesn't fit anymore; it's all about what one guy wants.

    Oh, okay...I'm sure someone like @Xzi will point out that this has been going on long before Donald became their most popular presidential candidate, and that might be true, but still...I want to point at this situation because it's an argument I dare say proves it. Face it, guys: the republicans will do anything to stop the impeachment because it puts THEM in a worse spot. That they're putting the country in a worse spot is at best an inconvenience.




    (1): I've said it before some times: to a European, the US democrats by themselves would be considered a right party (or 'centered' at best, depending on what topics we're talking about).
     
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  8. chrisrlink

    chrisrlink Intel Pentium III Hamster inside

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    oh how i love the smell of political chaos in the evening so refreshing to see the wh staff falling like flies off a farting elephants arse
     
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  9. Xzi

    Xzi All your base are belong to the proletariat

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    Towing the party line was one thing, but the sycophantic cult of personality is relatively new. GWB was not immune to criticisms from within his own party, especially toward the end of his second term. Part of that was due to his handling of the economy, I'm sure, but I get the feeling that even if the economy crashed in a similar fashion under Trump, the Republican party would not abandon him. He's got too many supporters whose entire identities are entangled with his success or failure, the result of decades of wealth worship propagated by Fox News and talk radio. It's really quite pathetic.
     
    Last edited by Xzi, Oct 22, 2019
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  10. Xzi

    Xzi All your base are belong to the proletariat

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    Seasoned diplomat William Taylor confirmed to Congress today what Mick Mulvaney had already stated publicly: there was quid pro quo in Trump's withholding of military aid to Ukraine. This is probably the most damning testimony given yet, and it connects the dots quite succinctly. All that's left for the House now is the gathering of some minute details before they vote to impeach.
     
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  11. Taleweaver
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    Taleweaver Storywriter

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    @Xzi: Damn...ninja'd. I was going to post the same news. :P

    Added the source to the OP.


    I also saw an interesting video with Scaramucci. In and off itself, it's not that relevant (I like the guy because he's a straight up character from Mario Puzo's The Godfather :P ). Unlike in the Mueller dossier, he basically says Trump is finished now. But the interesting thing is that he predicts a Nixon repetition in the upcoming time.

    What went down with Nixon was fairly simple: the Watergate reporting similarly got people distancing themselves from their president. So in the end, the republicans took Nixon apart and told him that a similar vote as now was coming up, and that if he didn't resign before that vote, they'd vote against him. So Nixon resigned before that happened (so republicans could still save face somewhat).

    I'm not sure if that'll happen again. Oh, I'm sure that Mitch McConnell won't actually block the voting (he somewhat admitted or agreed to this), but I'm wondering just how spineless and shortsighted nowadays politicians really are. The "Trump personality cult" is different: Nixon was basically at the mercy of what news reports wrote on him. Trump just hosts his own twitter channel, and you can be sure that he'll drag any republican that votes against him through the mud for putting loyalty to the US constitution above loyalty to the president.
    It's also unclear if Trump will resign when that deal is offered to him as well. He doesn't have the political insight to understand that this would be the best way out of this (with the perspective that his personal brand is the only thing that matters to him, it's not even a wrong calculation). And in addition...no longer being protected by being the active president, he might as well face prosecution by Mueller's team.
     
    Last edited by Taleweaver, Oct 23, 2019
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  12. chrisrlink

    chrisrlink Intel Pentium III Hamster inside

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    I still say nancy did this too soon if she was smart she'd hold off til after election for 2 reasons 1) it could be a wasted effort as maybe trump won't get re elected (longshot) and two if more democrats enter the senate in janurary much larger chance for impeachment success then we have pence not knowing if he had knowing of this or even aided trump another reason cause if true we could remove both scumbags from office before he has a chance to pardon truimp
     
    Last edited by chrisrlink, Oct 23, 2019
  13. billapong

    billapong GBAtemp Regular

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    So, a week or so has passed? How's that impeachment going?
     
  14. chrisrlink

    chrisrlink Intel Pentium III Hamster inside

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    it take weeks or months to sift through the evidence that can work in our favor as i said it could last beyond jan 11th and by all the known evidence that we know of now not looking too good for trump
     
  15. RationalityIsLost101

    RationalityIsLost101 GBAtemp Regular

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    Depending on your perspective it is going well if you want Trump impeached due to the given opening statements provided. I'd suggest you read Bill Taylor's opening statement if you have time. However, if you are against Trump being impeached, well it's pretty unlikely he will prevent impeachment.

    As far as conviction goes. As of now, I think we are looking at 1/5 or 1/4 chance republicans will throw him out. If the senate trial doesn't favor Trump in messaging then he will be facing odds that will be 50-50, you only need 20 republican senators. Presidents come and go. Senators will fight for lifelong seats above all else. Don't fool yourself in thinking they care one iota about the 'trump base'.
     
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  16. billapong

    billapong GBAtemp Regular

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    So Trump will be unlikely to prevent the vote in the house, but the house still hasn't voted and even if they do chances are that he won't get removed from office. So nothing has really changed since last week. Just checking :)
     
  17. RationalityIsLost101

    RationalityIsLost101 GBAtemp Regular

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    If you asked me a week ago before Mulvaney's press conference and the recent testimonies I would have said there is a 10% chance he could avoid impeachment from the house. There is no chance that he will be able to avoid impeachment in the house now. I also would be putting conviction at 20% or less. I'm comfortable in saying his chances in surviving this is dwindling. If republicans in the house vote to impeach by more than 70 then I will be willing to say the odds would be immediately flipped where he would only retain 20-25% to avoid conviction.

    Just to be clear: If he avoids conviction by a close margin (1-3 senators, which is becoming almost assured at this point - as long as house has at least 20-40 republicans voting against) republicans will be slaughtered in the 2020 race and will lose both house and senate. imagine an apolitical independent having to vote for a person that the majority of the congress requested removal from office. Best thing Trump can have at this point is Biden being his opposing candidate to have any remote chance of reelection (approx 30-40% chance). As far as any congressional republican not in a deep-red state - Goodluck... if you voted against trump you lose your base, if you voted with Trump you lose independents.
     
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  18. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member

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    Why.

    Currently 40 republicans stormed a private hearing with a Ukraine official, that was held under a secrecy clause, refused to leave and started tweeting that they would produce transparancy against SECRET meeting. Because the public is so idiot level, that they cant differentiate between an interview being prevented, and 'bringing transparency'.

    You are being held as morons by the republican party again.


    Also this brings us to why states and businesses use secrecy clauses at all. There are usually two motives. First is to have people talk without a sense of repercussion, second is because of national security reasons (compromising details, reputation damage).

    30 polititians from the republic side know that. So when they start interrupting due process, by crying 'transparany' they are lying straight to your face. Because thats not the motive.

    Fun.

    edit: src: https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...877c06-f5a5-11e9-8cf0-4cc99f74d127_story.html
     
    Last edited by notimp, Oct 24, 2019
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  19. azoreseuropa

    azoreseuropa GBAtemp Guru

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    Oh boy.. more drama about Trumps. I don't bother to listen to him anymore.. Even all presidents, mayors, senators, governments, and etc. They are all horrible and corrupted. Not trusted them at all! SMH!
     
  20. Ev1l0rd

    Ev1l0rd (⌐◥▶◀◤) Developer - noirscape

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    So you're telling me these buffoons caused a major security breach, are protesting about Republicans not being involved whilst there already are Republicans in the room and somehow think that behavior is acceptable?

    Fucking hell, these guys are worse than donkeys.
     
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