Donald Trump announces he has COVID-19

[KingVamp]

Joe seems to be alright.

 

[gregory-samba]

Yes, and i like making trump jokes too, plus he already spent Billions of American taxpayers money to build Mexican wall, It's highly probable he would do the same with minolities.

If you've been paying attention for the last 30 some years most politicians that put out campaign promises never come through with most of them, but with Trump, who's not a politician, he's come through with most of his. I agree that Mexico didn't straight out hand over a check for the wall, but that's unrealistic thinking on the Left's part. The funding comes from all sorts of other methods. It's just like the Left saying Trump said to drink bleach as that's only what they implied he meant and said. If you look into the issue you won't find a single video or shred of evidence that Trump said "drink bleach". What you assume someone means doesn't make that assumption true. Just because Mexico isn't handing over a blank check doesn't mean they aren't paying for the walls in other ways.

 

[chrisrlink]

i always wondered what would happen if all of the line of succession we're to well for a nice term be unable to fill the presidents shoes Cpvid 19 could prove that risk if all 16 people are infected on another note i can see the Secret service being pretty busy with all these death of trump meme posters

 

[notimp]

Estimates on annual flu deaths are all over the place. 12,000 to 60,000 a year. And every year is different. Very different, as in these things aren't that reliable. As you say, it 'averages out' to 36k, but since annual flu season is not typically politicized those numbers are not conflated so much by other related causes. Flu deaths are flu deaths. Pneumonia deaths are pneumonia deaths. With the Covid totals being reported, almost everyone involved also had other conditions, especially pneumonia. But they all died a "Covid-related" death.

If you look at this, the deaths from flu in 2017-2018 were 61,000.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
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But if you check this page on Covid19-related deaths, the flue deaths for this year are only 6,700. And that's with or without Covid19 and/or pneumonia. Where did they all go???
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
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Influenza is seasonal. Give them time, Check in a few months.

Also you are trapped in a logic puzzle you dont seem to be able to exist logically, so circumvent it.

Look at access death rates:
https://voxeu.org/article/us-excess-mortality-rate-covid-19-substantially-worse-europe-s

Also, some scenarios show the US ending up with 400k covid deaths in february. Again, those are scenarios, so if its only 250k dont beat them up, they are influenced by 'everything', but - winter is coming..


Also, one more time, its not just overall death figures, its also in what period of time, if hospitals would become non operational, much more people would die. So you enact meassures to slow down rate of spread.

In states with lower popoulation density, you need less measures.

 

[Lacius]

The death statistics keep changing, but the general figures are that 99.8% of people who get infected don't die and that is calculated for overall infections as that number does decrease with age. Here's one of many articles that has recent figures in it.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/flori...to-full-capacity-as-florida-moves-to-phase-3/

Edit: I want to mention that the more people who get tested the more the percentage of deaths goes down. The reason we see more spikes of infections is not because more people are getting infected, it's because we have more testing. It just shows that most people already had COVID and didn't even know it as they didn't get sick nor have any lingering symptoms. For most people COVID isn't really a big deal.

Only a small percentage get hospitalized, and out of that small percentage only a few die. Then out of that few they are mostly older people with pre-existing conditions. So you see the death rate is really low. I don't think we have anything to worry about regarding Trump, but I'm not a genie and can tell the future. I just hope he doesn't get sick and die, but if he does my vote will simply go to Pence. Pence seems like an okay guy.

1. Overall, the death rate in the USA for someone who tests positive for COVID-19 is 2.8%. Factors like age and other health issues affect this number.
2. Overall, the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is not due to the increase in testing. We know this because the positive tests as a percent of total tests has increased. In some geographic areas, however, you will find the increase in cases being due to increased testing. Pay attention to the percents.
3. Edit: Even in areas where the infection rate isn't increasing and the number of cases is higher because of increased testing, it's often the case that the infection rate is still too high.

 

[gregory-samba]

1. Overall, the death rate in the USA for someone who tests positive for COVID-19 is 2.8%. Factors like age and other health issues affect this number.

Your % is months old, but even if that was still the number Trump really has nothing to worry about.

1. Overall, the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is not due to the increase in testing. We know this because the positive tests as a percent of total tests has increased. In some geographic areas, however, you will find the increase in cases being due to increased testing. Pay attention to the percents.

The reason we know more people have or had COVID is because we're testing more people. Just because you haven't been tested doesn't mean you don't have it. So as the number of tests increase, the number of positive results increase and also the % of people that die decreases.

 

[notimp]

The death statistics keep changing, but the general figures are that 99.8% of people who get infected don't die and that is calculated for overall infections as that number does decrease with age. Here's one of many articles that has recent figures in it.

Even that is wrong.

The usually contemplated death rate of people infected with Covid in western democracies is between 0.375% and 0.6% in the US currently its estimated to be 0.6%.

To do those estimations you need widespread testing in regions mimicking 'statisticaly normal populations' because you cant test the entire country in a few weeks.

And that that number is fluctuating, is kind of logical, because its dependent on statistical models. And everytime a new 'remedy' is implemented in therapy its changing, f.e.

Whats relevant in Trumps case, are risk factors.
Agegroup and hypertension throw him into 30% risk of dying territory.
If he would have diabetes, he'd be at 60% chance of dying.

You can use the calculator here:
https://ncov2019.live/calculator


Now - good news for Trump is, that with probably daily testing in the administration, you caught it early, and that he will be pumped full with antibodies (from plasma or engineered, if effective, last studies I've seen on them were inconclusive), and the most expensive medication there is so his personal risk of dying is probably below 30%.

 

[Seliph]

oh awesome

 

[notimp]

No contact tracing was done for reporters:

 

[WD_GASTER2]

Being reckless has consequences. I think the lesson here is that having a big mouth can't beat scientific facts. Wear a mask people

 

[Lacius]

Your % is months old, but even if that was still the number Trump really has nothing to worry about.

1. 2.8% is the number as of today.
2. Trump is older, obese, and takes medication for other health issues like high cholesterol. His odds are likely higher, but he will still probably survive.
3. The issue has less to do with his odds and more to do with the carelessness of his actions up until this point.

The reason we know more people have or had COVID is because we're testing more people. Just because you haven't been tested doesn't mean you don't have it. So as the number of tests increase, the number of positive results increase and also the % of people that die decreases.

You don't seem to understand my point about percentages, so I will break it down. Let's pretend 10/100 people have COVID-19. If I test 10 people, I should expect about 1 to test positive. If I test 20 people, I should expect about 2 to test positive. This is an example of increased testing leading to increased cases, even though the infection rate didn't actually increase. All that changed was the testing, and nobody should be more worried after the second round of testing than after the first.

The problem is the increase in testing does not account for the increase in cases we are seeing overall. To use the same example above, if I test 10 people and get one positive, and then I test 20 people and I get 5 positives, that's an increase in the positive case numbers that shouldn't have happened if the cases only increased because of the increased testing. Look at the percentages of tests, and you will see that we are getting increases around the country. That's a problem that isn't explained by increased testing.

And, again, it's not necessarily a good thing when, in some areas, the rate of positive cases is flat but the rate is already too high. We want to see it come down.

I should also point out that the "it's because of more testing" argument can never do anything to help an argument, even ignoring the above points, unless the argument is "we weren't testing enough before, and we are only now realizing that things are worse than we thought."

 

[LumInvader]

The death statistics keep changing, but the general figures are that 99.8% of people who get infected don't die and that is calculated for overall infections as that number does decrease with age. Here's one of many articles that has recent figures in it.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/flori...to-full-capacity-as-florida-moves-to-phase-3/

Ron DeSantis is your source? Well that explains the wonky fatality rate that's several times lower than most other estimates.

CDC: 0.65% IFR
https://reason.com/2020/09/29/the-l...ion-fatality-rate-vary-dramatically-with-age/

World Health Organization: 0.5% - 1.0% IFR
https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19

Columbia University: 1.46% IFR
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...an-many-believed-infection-fatality-rate-cvd/

US\World combined cases meta-analysis: 0.68% IFR
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4

In addition, Covid-19 is also roughly twice as contagious as influenza (r0 value), which multiplies the number of cases and total deaths.

 

[notimp]

• 2.8% is the number as of today.

Wrong method to calculate. Not all people with milder symptoms get tested.

You cant just do a calculation, on people who were known to have it and people who are known to have died from it.

You need wide spread testing on statistically normally dispersed populations. Thats done, once, maybe twice a year, because tests could be distributed 'smarter'.

here, with source:

But as researchers like us have learned more about the spread of the virus, we have discovered that the total number of infected people is far greater than the number of confirmed cases. When deaths from COVID-19 are divided by the total number of cases – not just reported cases – you get a statistic called the infection fatality rate (IFR), or colloquially, the death rate. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention currently has a best guess of 0.65% for the IFR. But current estimates fall anywhere between 0.2% and 1%, a surprisingly large range when calculating the infection fatality rate should be as simple as dividing the number of deaths by total infections. And these estimates are changing all the time. In fact, in the time it took to write this article, the CDC changed its best estimate of the fatality rate from 0.26% to 0.65%.

https://theconversation.com/how-dea...ind-but-researchers-are-getting-closer-141426

 

[Lacius]

Wrong method to calculate. Not all people with milder symptoms get tested.

You cant just do a calculation, an people who were known to have it and people who are known to have died from it.

You need wide spread testing on statistically normally dispersed populations. Thats done, once, maybe twice a year, because test could be distributed 'smarter'.

here, with source:

Please read my posts fully. I am very careful with my words. I specifically said the death rate of those who get tested.

 

[notimp]

Please read my posts fully. I am very careful with my words. I specifically said the death rate of those who get tested.

Which means exactly nothing.

So please be considerate of those who are not so careful with reading..

 

[LumInvader]

But if you check this page on Covid19-related deaths, the flue deaths for this year are only 6,700. And that's with or without Covid19 and/or pneumonia. Where did they all go???

45% of Americans are wearing masks in 2020. They are social distancing. There are no more concerts. Bars are closed. Sports arenas are mostly empty. Large social gatherings are forbidden in many places. You really need someone to explain to you where all influenza cases went? If you can't understand the basic concept of social distancing = fewer deaths, then I don't know what else to tell you.

 

[Doran754]

Yes, and i like making trump jokes too, plus he already spent Billions of American taxpayers money to build Mexican wall, It's highly probable he would do the same with minolities.

I LIVE IN EU, honestly i don't really give shit how american election goes.

You live in Italy mate, Italy. The EU isn't a country. And yes, he ran on a pledge to build a wall, so obviously he's spending tax payers money building that wall, LIKE HE SAID HE WOULD.

 

[LumInvader]

You live in Italy mate, Italy. The EU isn't a country. And yes, he ran on a pledge to build a wall, so obviously he's spending tax payers money building that wall, LIKE HE SAID HE WOULD.

 

[Hanafuda]

45% of Americans are wearing masks in 2020. They are social distancing. There are no more concerts. Bars are closed. Sports arenas are mostly empty. Large social gatherings are forbidden in many places. You really need someone to explain to you where all influenza cases went? If you can't understand the basic concept of social distancing = fewer deaths, then I don't know what else to tell you.

That's a good point. I guess we should just go on living like this forever then. I mean, if it saves one life, right? For the children.

 

[LumInvader]

That's a good point. I guess we should just go on living like this forever then. I mean, if it saves one life, right? For the children.

What's that have to do with my answer to your question? You asked me where all the influenza cases went. Social distancing is the answer. I never said that's the way I want to live -- far from it.