China - Taiwan conflict

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So probably many of you have heard about this decades-long conflict between China (PRC) and Taiwan (ROC).
There have been quite a lot of threats from the PRC side, even causing armed conflict in the past (three Taiwan Strait crisis events).
China's violence towards Taiwan never really stopped - in fact, it's now worse and worse, with state mouthpieces threatening a war and even making death threats towards the President.

Personally, I have two wolves in myself. One is the one making me panic over the war, causing me to think about worst case scenario where I'll lose a place I will come back to and one of dearest people in the world... :( which in turn makes my mental health go bonkers.

On the other side, this sabre-rattling has been going on for over 70 years, and yet PRC fails to even start its grand vendetta of "reunification".

What are your thoughts on that? Do you think USA and the allies will help Taiwan in case a war would break out? Or rather Taiwan will sadly succumb into the PRC regime against people's will?
 

Xzi

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On the other side, this sabre-rattling has been going on for over 70 years, and yet PRC fails to even start its grand vendetta of "reunification".

What are your thoughts on that? Do you think USA and the allies will help Taiwan in case a war would break out? Or rather Taiwan will sadly succumb into the PRC regime against people's will?
I think the only reason China hasn't invaded Taiwan already is because of worldwide pressure against it, and that's also the reason it will most likely remain nothing but sabre-rattling. It's top priority for capitalists the world over that microchip manufacturing not be disrupted again for any period of time.
 

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I think the only reason China hasn't invaded Taiwan already is because of worldwide pressure against it, and that's also the reason it will most likely remain nothing but sabre-rattling. It's top priority for capitalists the world over that microchip manufacturing not be disrupted again for any period of time.
Honestly, with Xi having the power in his hands, I wish I was as calm. This dude is unpredictable as fuck and I wouldn't be surprised if he would actually make the move. Especially in case of a crisis within the CCP where he would lose power.

Some people I've talked to say the war would break out in 2030s, which... I really want to hope it's not true.
Hard to not worry when lives of your beloved ones are at stake.
 
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I think the only reason China hasn't invaded Taiwan already is because of worldwide pressure against it, and that's also the reason it will most likely remain nothing but sabre-rattling. It's top priority for capitalists the world over that microchip manufacturing not be disrupted again for any period of time.
New foundries in other countries could make TSMC less important in the future. That would be good for microchips but bad for Taiwan.
 
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New foundries in other countries could make TSMC less important in the future. That would be good for microchips but bad for Taiwan.
I know it's a foolish mentality, but I feel Taiwan shouldn't be defended solely because of semiconductors. There's more to this country than that.

But, after all, it's money talking nowadays. Won't be surprised if Taiwan will be left alone in the war.
 
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I know it's a foolish mentality, but I feel Taiwan shouldn't be defended solely because of semiconductors. There's more to this country than that.

But, after all, it's money talking nowadays. Won't be surprised if Taiwan will be left alone in the war.
One of the most shocking things I saw early on in the pandemic was when a senior W.H.O official refused to name Taiwan in an interview.

 
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One of the most shocking things I saw early on in the pandemic was when a senior W.H.O official refused to name Taiwan in an interview.
WHO? You mean that pseudo-org corrupted by Chinese money?
This and the general Covid shit just proves Taiwan needs no blessing from WHO, UN or any of those orgs. We can survive on our own if they don't want us to share our experiences to make the world better.

Fuck the UN, we don't need their blessing to be a sovereign country either.
 
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Kurt91

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The one I thought was funny was immediately after the Olympics, after China claimed that since Taiwan is part of China, all of the medals Taiwan won count as Chinese victories and the medal counts should be added together, meaning China won the Olympics.

The whole time, I was thinking: "Okay, if Taiwan is a part of China, that should mean that China should be disqualified from every event they participated in for cheating, since they had twice the number of participants in each event, bringing their effective medal count to zero for disqualification. If they don't want this dishonor of cheating in an international event like that, then they would have to claim Taiwan as a separate country. So, which is it? Is Taiwan a separate country, or did China cheat so brazenly in an international event with so much global reverence that it's practically religious, that they should be barred from ever participating in the future?"
 
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The one I thought was funny was immediately after the Olympics, after China claimed that since Taiwan is part of China, all of the medals Taiwan won count as Chinese victories and the medal counts should be added together, meaning China won the Olympics.

The whole time, I was thinking: "Okay, if Taiwan is a part of China, that should mean that China should be disqualified from every event they participated in for cheating, since they had twice the number of participants in each event, bringing their effective medal count to zero for disqualification. If they don't want this dishonor of cheating in an international event like that, then they would have to claim Taiwan as a separate country. So, which is it? Is Taiwan a separate country, or did China cheat so brazenly in an international event with so much global reverence that it's practically religious, that they should be barred from ever participating in the future?"
Most entertainment is when it comes to marriage equality. Tankie kiddies will say China indeed has no marriage equality but then adamantly claim Taiwan is China.

Make it make sense... People will do a fuck ton of mental gymnastics to bootlick CCP.

As for the Olympics - I watched the results live and it made me so happy and emotional seeing Taiwan get three golds with such a small team (compared to Poland who got only 2 total medals more with 4x bigger team).

Then I realized these heroes wouldn't hear the national anthem nor see the national flag. It went to super depressing real quick.
 

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China's a big country they can easily move nukes from "stratigic points" (targets for air raids that would be bases,silos, etc) to prevent being destroyed either way the world loses because of WMD's will eventually be the death of humanity, now say China makes the move on Taiwan an easy answer WORLD WAR 3 anything can cause it at this point the US concieve the atomic bomb thanks to that mad scientist Albert Wily.....er einstien he opened pandora's box and it's too late to close it
 

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What are your thoughts on that? Do you think USA and the allies will help Taiwan in case a war would break out? Or rather Taiwan will sadly succumb into the PRC regime against people's will?

Please do not comment if you hold the position in favor of PRC and consider Taiwan a Chinese province. I don't need this type of morons on this thread.
You don't really get to request such a thing. People could make the case in favour of it being a rebellious province, as per the PRC position, though for pragmatic purposes most would disagree (it has its own government, passports, technically embassies...)

Still I figure the US would probably wimp out. They would send a strongly worded letter, maybe even a do nothing sanction, but even if they were not going through another isolationist phase (and they seem to be, regardless of political party) the ability for them to take on China is limited and would likely only do it to save themselves rather than playing world police.
Europe is not really in a position to do force projection there (the economics are not good, and that is without taking in a good chunk of the middle east and north Africa's not quite finest, and China pulling more than a few key strings there), and the UK is not much better (might do something for Hong Kong, even if that is just offer passports to those that might qualify). China and Africa are already thralls of China, no chance the middle east will do anything, Australia could maybe just about defend itself (and would likely suffer massively on the economic front as China is a fairly big part of its economy), Russia has its own issues (its birth rate/population collapse is only marginally better than China) and is probably playing the long game anyway (though might take a bit of land if it can), India would only intervene if it is was in its own interest or could catch China on the back foot.

Others above debate whether it would be in the economic interests of people to go against China here, and that is always the main reason for anything. If China is the world's factory (at least for another decade or so before wages shoot up more there) then Taiwan is the good factory (good materials, actual tolerances... make stuff that is nice to use) where China tends to make junk. That means something but I imagine places are going for more of a strategic reserve approach here, if not national security, and rolling their own factories despite the costs or leaning into robots to reduce costs as much as is possible.

This guy covers what would go there if the US tried it on.
China's military efficacy is debated (most think it would not do well) but getting marginally better. The US... not so much, though enough to still make a dent in places.

With neutral US

China is also on the verge of some pretty unpleasant fates
Plus a couple more on water and internal stability (there is a reason they are ramping up the surveillance, fabricating nationalism and the like, though even before you consider that then for all China's authoritarian tendencies their internal provinces have a lot of sway).

When unstable countries need a focusing point then they tend to create a war* to try to pull focus from the failures of governance. If they win then they get a little reprieve while people are riding high from that, if they fail then they collapse faster.

*can pick things from ancient times to today if you want. Rome had its fair share, Argentina-Falklands was probably one of these, south America in general is full of them, Africa can be these but more often is lines on a map being drawn by people that never set foot there and did not understand anything there, USSR-Afghanistan, Finland-Russia this though also need of a better port, possibly World War 2, whether Japanese imperialism in the early-mid 1900s was this is harder to say but it did not hurt, Napoleon's various efforts are at some level this, Italy in more modern times is this (the farce that was Italian colonialism through world war 2 for instance), the middle east has this every 5 minutes it seems...

For my money the fate of Hong Kong will probably be the thing to watch there. That is going to get flattened before too long, when that goes then they will probably coast off that for a while and then contemplate Taiwan, unless a suitable African target of belt and road becomes a thing, or maybe they can swipe something from India (probably by starting something with the Sri Lanka set or Pakistan set, that or doing the usual fund and arm and independence movement somewhere and you have endless choices here), maybe go enforce a debt collection from some state they have given a loan to that is now not agreeing to pay it or hand over one of their shiny ports/mines/oil refineries or something.


Short version. You better hope China's coming collapse is short, sharp and swift so they can't do a war of diversion on Taiwan. Also better hope nobody finds oil or something valuable in all those disputed islands/surrounding waters as that will be more than an issue with coastal defences/exclusion zones is nice.
You also better hope China's influence policies don't suddenly actually get good (see also Russia, U.K., US... spies, political and economic influencing and whatnot) rather than pretty laughable like it is at present (and they even have the benefit here of speaking nominally the same language compared to far different efforts like English where nuance is crazy hard). From what I have seen of political things in Taiwan this last few years then mainland China's sock puppets in political parties there are increasing in monetary support despite no real grass roots support such that they could be a real threat there, even more so if they decide to mess with the fairness of elections. If said sock puppets get enough power that they can open the borders (and presumably dump a load of money to make it worth it)... oh dear.
 

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If Taiwan falls (USA doesn't intervene), so does the USA as a trusted ally.
It would be the nail in the coffin for the USA as a world policeman.
 

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If Taiwan falls (USA doesn't intervene), so does the USA as a trusted ally.
It would be the nail in the coffin for the USA as a world policeman.
Would it really?
Basically everything other than the panama invasion and a couple of banana wars since world war 2 has been a failure (Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Iraq 2, Afghanistan, Bosnia to an extent, any efforts in Africa outside of a few special forces efforts, Syria...) and people still go to it for help. The US is arguably self sufficient at this point with its own oil (part of the reason for lack of intervention in a lot of the middle east before they reached that point), give or take what the hippies want to force to go for lithium (not much in US borders, recycling it is a pain) or something to power the nuclear reactors for all those cars, or maybe some tech companies need for the rare earths (guess what Afghanistan has a lot of).
The US stood idly by really with Russia messing around in Ukraine, nobody really cared in the end. All still trade with the US and try hard not to annoy it.

To that end "oh well, that sucks, we'll see you in a few decades when you emerge back, business as usual" would be my prediction for that one.
 

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What are your thoughts on that? Do you think USA and the allies will help Taiwan in case a war would break out? Or rather Taiwan will sadly succumb into the PRC regime against people's will?
The CCP will not start a war unless it thinks it will win. Right now, since the US is (perceived to be) militarily strong and has an interest in keeping Taiwan safe, they won't do anything too extreme. Plus, invading Taiwan would destroy much of its economic value, which is something nobody wants. Over time, though, as the USA's ability or willingness to fight decreases, they might try something like taking over without starting a war in order for it to be acceptable enough for the rest of the world.

Please do not comment if you hold the position in favor of PRC and consider Taiwan a Chinese province. I don't need this type of morons on this thread.
What are you talking about? Taiwan is a province of China. After all, the ROC is the only legitimate government of China.

One of the most shocking things I saw early on in the pandemic was when a senior W.H.O official refused to name Taiwan in an interview.
Shocking? Obviously, this was done out of respect for Taiwan's success in suppressing COVID-19.
 

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Over time, though, as the USA's ability or willingness to fight decreases, they might try something like taking over without starting a war in order for it to be acceptable enough for the rest of the world
This is what worries me most...
Stuff like that makes me wish I were in Taiwan so I could inscript to the army. At least I want to die knowing I was doing something for the good.
 
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In the short term, I think it's more likely that the situation with India will escalate first. If they end up losing that (which seems more likely than not) then who knows what they might do to try to save face.
 

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In the short term, I think it's more likely that the situation with India will escalate first. If they end up losing that (which seems more likely than not) then who knows what they might do to try to save face.
I mean they would be quite weakened by India. Not to mention IND and TWN are now quite allies, add Japan on top of that. If USA won't help, they will probably do
 
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I think that China invading Taiwan would result in something like a small world war. Involving America and other countries of Asia like Japan. Not sure about the rest though
 

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China will never invade Taiwan. A massive war with a lot of losses for the Chinese government.
Anyone know with the culture. It's the mans job to takecare of his parents when they're old. It's also his job to support his wife's parents.

Also China's economy would plummet and the stability of the country would crumble from with in.
The only solution for the CCP to take over Taiwan. Is a peaceful one.
 
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