My prediction is that Kamala will win the nomination without much difficulty (and probably pick either Beshear or Cooper as VP). The big D endorsements and donors are coalescing around her. But I believe she will lose the general. While I believe Biden was headed towards a probable loss as well, I still think he would have put up a much better fight than any other candidate i've seen floated.
Most polls have put Harris' chances at roughly similar to Biden's within a 3-point margin or error. Biden is also significantly more favored among Independents than Harris. Her ability to win in critical swing states was polling lower than Biden.
Harris' polling has also been calculated in a neutral vaccuum. Just a hypothetical. Trump and the GOP have not even begun to target her yet.
There is nothing wrong with DEI in principle but most just do short cut for the sake of DEI KPI which gives DEI a bad name.
If Clinton can't win I doubt enough has changed since then for Harris to be better than Biden at winning this
Kamala will have a very different set of problems than Hillary. Hillary had a massive closet of skeletons that decimated her campaign. Bill Clinton also dragged her down somewhat too, but her own baggage was what ultimately cost her the election. Kamala has less of the same type of baggage, but is a black woman. Even if she was an "ideal" sort of candidate with a sparkling clean political record (which she isn't), her being both black and a woman together would pose a massive obstacle.
I also consider her somewhat of a weak and awkward speaker that generally collapses under any amount of pressure from anyone who isn't an easy target. She got one very good hit against Biden in the 2020 primary debates that gained her the VP position, but Tulsi Gabbard (who has effectively joined the GOP) destroyed her presidential campaign. Kamala debated decently well against Mike Pence, and likely would have done well against Vance. But they were chosen by Trump specifically due to their bland and non-threatening demeanors that posed no obvious danger to his own power and ego. If Trump were to even agree to a debate with Harris (and i'm not entirely sure what he'll decide there), I'm not at all sure she'll be able to keep up.
Yet even now, we are seeing just how senile Trump is.
I do not believe Trump is senile. Or at least does not show particularly obvious signs of it every time (or even most of the time) he's seen. I believe he is criminally deranged. A trait he was born with and has nothing to do with age. There's a reason why the same gripes with Biden haven't been able to stick to Trump. Trump doesn't come across as having the sort of memory and speech issues that Biden does.
Bernie Sanders is even older than Biden, but also gives off zero impressions that his mind is degrading. Hell, even Jimmy Carter (who is nearly 100 years old) still appeared very much "there" mentally back in 2020-2021 interviews before his health rapidly declined due to cancer over the past couple of years.