Predict future collectablity/value of current games

subcon959

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There are certain games that end up increasing in value over the years for whatever reason. I figured it might be a fun idea to try and make some predictions about which relatively current games might end up becoming highly collectable in the future. Obviously this only applies to physical releases.

For some reason I feel like Pikmin 3 on the Switch is destined to become one of those games. It's not really a good guess to include a first party game but I feel like this one didn't really live up to expectations on release when it came to sales, and it might be sought after by future generations of retro collectors.

Anyone have any predictions?
 
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KiiWii

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I would say games that don’t get snapped up in droves. The oddities on the fringe of the “chart” games. LTD run have monopolised a lot of them, but things like Poop slinger can only go up in value lol.
 
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subcon959

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I would say games that don’t get snapped up in droves. The oddities on the fringe of the “chart” games. LTD run have monopolised a lot of them, but things like Poop slinger can only go up in value lol.
Limited run games is a weird one as they seem to go up in value right after the pre-order window ends. Maybe some sort of FOMO effect rather than genuine long term value?
 
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KiiWii

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Limited run games is a weird one as they seem to go up in value right after the pre-order window ends. Maybe some sort of FOMO effect rather than genuine long term value?
Agreed, but you never see them traded in at regular game shops lol. They’re always on local selling sites at crazy prices.

I would think the vast majority of mainstream Xbox 1/PS4 games will fade into oblivion, I can’t see many being worth anything at all in future.
 
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subcon959

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Agreed, but you never see them traded in at regular game shops lol. They’re always on local selling sites at crazy prices.

I would think the vast majority of mainstream Xbox 1/PS4 games will fade into oblivion, I can’t see many being worth anything at all in future.
I agree it seems that way, although I probably thought the same about most N64/Gamecube games when they were new and now wish I'd bought as many as possible!
 

FAST6191

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I did have some thoughts on the matter the other day
https://gbatemp.net/threads/setting-about-making-models-for-prices-for-old-games.591553/

Though short version

Games people like

Games of historical relevance

Games the speedrun or competition set want.

Games collectors want because having a complete set/gotta catch em all.

Whatever quality/rarity/desirability the serious money set are dealing in, and this brings in misprints, first batch, rare batch, owned by someone notable, signed, ridiculous quality concerns (if the box slicer in the factory was in need of a sharpen that day then watch those zeros tumble off).


This is all further compounded by

Rarity. This can include in a given region (PAL at once providing some stupidly rare stuff, and also being looked down upon for a lot) and English language copies are also a factor here; big in Japan but unknown but still available outside it, Japanese copies of western stuff can be a thing too (FPS is not popular in Japan owing to the whole motion sickness thing but there are still some).
If it was a "hidden gem" to begin with then yeah probably not many out there. I reckon you can probably predict hidden gems too; might not be mainstream, indeed definitionally it probably can't be, but there will be enough buzz if you know where to look (Deadly Premonition was probably my first time I really met this for me -- I did the release post and wondered why it was not getting any traction, 2 weeks later we have a sleeper hit and since then... yeah. Though at the same time I am on record as really liking Escape Dead Island, and maintain that one, so I am probably not a great one to ask here).
The complete collector set also seem to struggle with various kids games too.
Lawsuits to recall things, or recalls in general. Depends how many got out as well, and the nature of the recall too (well loved game that saw some licensing rights issue, all the way to the bank, boring game that saw some distasteful issue, possibly see something like "the guy game", harder).
Later rereleases on the same console (grey label being the US preferred term) tend to drag it down for "serious" collectors for some reason, though later rereleases with a bunch of extra content tends to be "tell me more".
It might be harder to shift if you are selling it but it seems there are those that like wasting space on limited editions and tat that comes with them.
Was sold later in the system lifetime, better yet after the next system was out and all the kids were skipping things there. Or if you prefer go look at the pricier/harder to come by versions of those for any system and the release date relative to the successor console.
Was sold exclusively at one shop, better yet an oddball one (see various things sold in Blockbuster in the US, especially the N64).
Was a limited run on physical media. A more modern thing as it was more recently that such things became a serious component of sales. At the same time see what happened to Silent Hill P.T.
Was only available as a prize for a contest or other rewards system (see various Japanese club Nintendo exclusives) rather than shops.
Was only available as a pack in game which was different to baseline -- see Zelda-Metroid on the gamecube, or the emulated versions of N64 Zeldas on the gamecube.
Console it was on was a bit of a failure but has since gone on to be recognised as something somewhat special.
Nintendo probably warrants it own consideration in this; for as long as I have been following games their second hand prices for first party/owned dev even during the system lifetime have been kept fairly high-- I knew enough to wait for some months even when younger and stupid but did Zelda Oracles titles come down in price that much? Nope still £20 a pop when the GBA was already well established.
Likewise RPGs tend to be higher in this if they are at least vaguely playable where nobody wants sports games, give or take a few really oddball sports games for the complete collection set (usually also on Nintendo or rare in a given region -- nobody likes American football, baseball, basketball or nascar in Europe so those few times someone smokes enough crack to think releasing a title like that in Europe is a good plan, never mind for a Nintendo console, then I am sure the future game collectors/those handful that do like the sports mentioned and shoved then in an attic thank them). Even more so if they are part of a series that kicks off but more on that next. I will also add shmups to the list there as some can get to some quite dizzying heights.


Games a dev (be it company or game director that is otherwise known by name) that later went on to do great things for. I often note Demon's Souls/Dark Souls is not the first attempt at such a thing from those devs; see prices of king's field vs what they were before the later games became monster hits/genre defining. Similarly Fire Emblem was a Japanese series that saw a few characters in Smash Brothers, it blew up for reasons that I have never been able to fathom and now watch the prices of the earlier efforts rise. This is probably the harder one here for where I can make a model of the former lot ( https://towardsdatascience.com/predicting-hit-video-games-with-ml-1341bd9b86b0 is not that but similar idea) and as mentioned above there is probably scope for a sleeper hit detector then any dev can seemingly hit a groove and make something spectacular. For instance see The Witcher; EA, Ubisoft, MS, Nintendo, Epic, Sony, Square Enix... all have many or at least notable failed open world RPGs to their name, nobody expected a bunch of early-mid 2000s Polish nobodies (Poland had some tech but were not Hungary or anything, nobody really notable for mods, hackers... meh compared to elsewhere,...) to do what they did with this and yet here we are. Equally even if I can see talent then publisher shenanigans are always an option; how many otherwise amazing studios are the grim reapers of EA, Sony and Ubisoft now responsible for gutting?

I am not entirely sure what effect piracy, emulation and rereleases play in this. At once it can be something, and it is also possibly less than some would estimate.
 

Xzi

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Basically steelbook versions of upcoming Switch games unless they're a critical flop. I've specifically got Metroid Dread and Sea of Stars in mind here, but I'm sure there will be others. Previously I beat and then sold my special edition of Xenoblade Chronicles 2 for about 60% profit.

Nintendo's strategy of keeping Switch games priced high is a double-edged sword for this very reason: it sucks where upfront costs are concerned, but the value of said games falls very slowly and usually only goes up for special editions. Demand should stay pretty steady until Nintendo announces their next console, and even then certain games might see their value increase further.
 

Harsky

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On the 3DS front, I thought I over paid for my copy of Stella Glow at £40. Now it's shot up in crazy price when the developers have gone bankrupt and people finally realise that the chances of this game getting ported or available on future consoles might be next to none.
 
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Hard to guess. Take into account I wouldn't put money on it (min intended), but my best guess is the following :

Yellow & Yangtze, by Reinier Knizia


Yeah, I know : what game? By who?

Y&Y is a board game. Knizia is like the Picasso or Miyamoto of boardgames, especially in how much he creates them (he has over 200 on his name).

One of his main successes is Tigris & Euphrates. Though nearly 20 years old, it's still salivated over by gamers. Yellow & Yangtze is a sort of sequel to it. It's... Good. Hard to argue which is better, but good.
And he now has issues with his publisher (EDIT: grail games), so the expansion evaporated and the rights are unclear. So unless it's settled, I predict that game will increase in value. I'm hesitant to say how much (three times the normal price is likely... But time will tell), but suddenly that unopened box in my collection is more an investment than a game to me.
 
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Marc_LFD

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Honestly, I wouldn't buy games or consoles as an investment. If you buy it, it's for *you* to enjoy it than hope its value will increase years later.

Nintendo fans do that and some times it works, some times it doesn't. They also say: "Nintendo games never lose their value." which is bs as they eventually do reduce in price, but sure, games in limited quantities remain expensive.

Anyone remember that terrible Godzilla game for PS4? It's worth a decent amount of green.
 

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I would say Hyrule Warriors Definitive Edition and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 Torna since theyre already out of print and reasonable popular.
Basically steelbook versions of upcoming Switch games unless they're a critical flop. I've specifically got Metroid Dread and Sea of Stars in mind here, but I'm sure there will be others. Previously I beat and then sold my special edition of Xenoblade Chronicles 2 for about 60% profit.

Nintendo's strategy of keeping Switch games priced high is a double-edged sword for this very reason: it sucks where upfront costs are concerned, but the value of said games falls very slowly and usually only goes up for special editions. Demand should stay pretty steady until Nintendo announces their next console, and even then certain games might see their value increase further.
I think Switch games will drop in value after Nintendo releases their next console. When Nintendo releases the console after that Switch games will rise in value.
 

subcon959

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I think Switch games will drop in value after Nintendo releases their next console. When Nintendo releases the console after that Switch games will rise in value.
Funny you say that. Close to when the Switch launched it was out of stock everywhere here (UK) and I happened to be in CEX one day as someone came in to sell theirs. I didn't really have much spare cash at the time so I gave them a bit to hold it for me, and came back in an hour with 9 Wii U games that I owned hoping to offset the cost a little. Well, it ended up covering the entire price of the Switch! Which BTW was marked up over MSRP because that's what that dirty little store does when they know something is in demand. Fast forward a short while and those same games were worth less than a quarter of what they gave me... First party Nintendo games are really weird that way.
 

Marc_LFD

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Probably depends on whether their next console is backward-compatible with Switch games or not.
Remember the Game Boy BC adapter for the SNES? Remember GBA BC for GameCube? They never did any of that for the Wii U or the Switch.

I guess they think alike SONY and others, just repackage and sell customers a game they already own while Xbox is allowing its consumers to use discs to play the games from previous generations.
 

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With the advent of emulators and the fact games are all digital data, I don't think there is any value at all in "collecting" a game/movie/whatever exists losslessly in digital format.

That said, like post #7 pointed out in other words, people are suckers for mementos/nostalgia, that is a good baseline for determining relative values.
 

Xzi

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Remember the Game Boy BC adapter for the SNES? Remember GBA BC for GameCube? They never did any of that for the Wii U or the Switch.
Wii U is backward-compatible with both Wii and Gamecube, though, is it not? I'm assuming Nintendo isn't going to want to abandon the hybrid console space so long as they have it all to themselves, so a 'Switch 2' makes the most sense for their next gen console. The only reason Switch isn't BC with previous home consoles is that it's on a very different hardware architecture.
 

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Wii U is backward-compatible with both Wii and Gamecube, though, is it not? I'm assuming Nintendo isn't going to want to abandon the hybrid console space so long as they have it all to themselves, so a 'Switch 2' makes the most sense for their next gen console. The only reason Switch isn't BC with previous home consoles is that it's on a very different hardware architecture.
The Wii U is BC Wii, but to be BC GC it needs to be hacked. I personally never cared much for the Wii, as SNES, GC, Wii U all had better games, imo.
 
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The Wii U is BC Wii, but to be BC GC it needs to be hacked. I personally never cared much for the Wii, as SNES, GC, Wii U all had better games, imo.

i wonder how much Wii U games will go in decades time. I mean Nintendo stuff dont lose value easliy, plus on top Wii U being a flop compared to other Nintendo consoles. Wii U stuff could be a gold mine imo.
 

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i wonder how much Wii U games will go in decades time. I mean Nintendo stuff dont lose value easliy, plus on top Wii U being a flop compared to other Nintendo consoles. Wii U stuff could be a gold mine imo.
Maybe it will, maybe it won't.

Mario Kart 8 goes for pretty cheap these days.

I stopped buying games to resell and now I'm selling it all on eBay as it's taking up space and buyers will only get 'em for the price I ask, if not, it'll remain on eBay.

It's random luck to buy games as an investment, but I won't do it again (exception below) though I know of a store that has brand new DC/PS1/Saturn/etc games and I'd love to buy them as those are highly valuable, but the owner (a fella in his 80's or so keeps delaying to make a deal with me).

It's a collector's dream to own it, I guarantee.
 

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