Thats not the point you give up at. You find a region in your country thats roughly statistically representative of your entire country (on average), and you test the entire population. Then you end up at case fatality rates of about 0.375% (you never end up at 0.1% (fake news?)) but as explained before - that means - if 70% of the population have it - the 'everyone knows a family, where one person has died of Covid _every year_' case (four grandparents, eight parents, eight kids, with eight partners, ...) is in play.
edit: Here as a discussion amongst mathematically minded people.
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia....that-someone-you-know-will-die-from-covid-19/
edit2: And the 'every year' part (without vaccination) is important. Because usually people you know dont die lets say 'of a carcrash' -- every year.
Also all the values listed in the articles above - are absolute death numbers. So no Case fatality rate needed.
You cant refute them with 'but case fatality rates - unknown', or 'small'.
edit3: Also Case Fatality Rate in the US is actually estimated to be around 5% for whatever reason.
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9032/8/3/330/pdf
Dont know why. No healthcare system worth the name? Overestimation?
edit4: The first one rather, and hospitals being overwhelmed:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
So lets do that calculation again at a Case Fatality Rate of 5%. Which apparently is the going rate in the US.
Family: 4 grandparents, 8 parents, 8 children + 8 partners = 28
28 - 30% (because lets say 70% of people in your country get it (not currently, but in the free spread horror scenario) every year, some with no symptoms) = 20
20*5% case fatality rate = 1
So what follows is: Dont let it spread to 70% of the population. Easier and cheaper than to lower the CFR rate to the rest of the civilized world, when not overwhelmed (hospitals operational) of about 0.4-1% - by building hospitals, paying for payed sick leave, and healthcare for everyone (problem with pandemics is - you cant combat it in just 10% of your population, when 70% of them have it).
---------------------------
edit2: Just remembered the obvious. Those CFR percentages usually originate from 'number of known infected people/number of known deaths'. As you dont test the entire population - number of 'actual' infections is MUCH higher. (Vs. known deaths.)
Which is why you select a 'statistically representative region' in your country - and test EVERYONE. That way you end up at an actual CFR of probably closer to 0.375%.
So closer to 'at 70% infection rate' 'everyone knows a person who has died from it every year' rather than - 'every family has one death'.
The calculation above should basically be invalid. What 'real' CFR for the US is - I dont know. For germany its around 0.375%. IF hospitals remain fully operational.
-------------------------------
edit: True CFR for the US (as in we tested and entire region, and compared with death figures) for the US is estimated to be 0.5%:
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/04/the-true-cfr-of-the-coronavirus-may-be-0-5-or-less/
-------------------------------
20*0.5% = 0.1
So lets say every family knows 10 other families, so you "know" one person that has died from Covid _every year_ - IF 70% of your country get infected. (Which is what you are trying to prevent.)
Next question to ask is: Is there really the possibility that 70% of people get infected within a year, with no measures taken? And this is where population density and 'near exponential' vs 'really exponential' comes in.
At that point, _I_ am stopping my google fu. But you can go on further along those lines, if you want to.
(Earlier problematic point is hospitals becoming overtaxed, at which point even 'real CFR' starts to climb as a percentage).
But "we dont know if its 0.1% or 40%" is simply not true - and grossly misrepresenting reality.
