Hong Kong National Party banned from participating in HK elections

[Zhongtiao1]

Note: TLDR at the bottom

This Morning, China banned the Hong Kong National Party (HKNP) from participating in elections. The official reason is that they have made threats against the government, but the people of Hong Kong believe it is because the pro-independence party has been gaining strength in the past elections.

Under the ban, anyone who associates with the party by serving the group, taking part in gatherings or providing financial assistance could be fined and sent to jail for up to three years.

Late Monday Night, China issued a warning to other countries to respect the ban and stop funding pro-independence forces in Hong Kong. This was mainly targeted at the US, UK, and EU who all issued statements earlier in the day condemning the ban. Of course, the CCP controlled China foreign affairs ministry in Hong Kong said that it fully supports the ban. However, the China Foreign Affairs Ministry is hardly more than a mouthpiece of Beijing and the CCP.

Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-Chiu said in response to the ban that "freedom was not without limits and the prohibition was 'necessary and proportional'"

Here are a few articles about it. I recommend you read at least the first one if you are interested in it :

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...er-countries-respect-hong-kong-national-party
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...g-separatist-party-was-compelling-grounds-and
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...-freedom-or-necessary-step-security-hong-kong

TLDR; For the first time, a Hong Kong political party has been outright banned from participating in elections because they are a "threat to the city"

 

[FAST6191]

"The official reason is that they have made threats against the government"
I think that is a blanket excuse for anything these days.

Hold out for a few more years lads. Sounds like something interesting is brewing in China and I don't know how much longer they can push it off.

 

[Deleted User]

Chinese and Hong Kong relations have been steadily souring. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if a few years down the line, a civil war erupts.

 

[FAST6191]

Chinese and Hong Kong relations have been steadily souring. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if a few years down the line, a civil war erupts.

What a one sided affair that would be. More than 50% of the population of 7 million over 40, dense urban environment, minimal combat training in the population at large. Police force ( https://www.police.gov.hk/ppp_en/09_statistics/ ) of some 35000 representing any kind of armed force, 30000 if you take out civilians on staff. Said police seem to handle very few firearms incidents (0 in years that I can see, usually less than 5 "gun like objects") so presumably minimal training there, certainly nothing even resembling anti military vehicle or combined arms training.
All that vs China, which is right next door and has a presence in country, probably has a full sigint package on the go constantly for the area, is a world class military, has a world class navy, air force worth noting

 

[Zhongtiao1]

What a one sided affair that would be. More than 50% of the population of 7 million over 40, dense urban environment, minimal combat training in the population at large. Police force ( https://www.police.gov.hk/ppp_en/09_statistics/ ) of some 35000 representing any kind of armed force, 30000 if you take out civilians on staff. Said police seem to handle very few firearms incidents (0 in years that I can see, usually less than 5 "gun like objects") so presumably minimal training there, certainly nothing even resembling anti military vehicle or combined arms training.
All that vs China, which is right next door and has a presence in country, probably has a full sigint package on the go constantly for the area, is a world class military, has a world class navy, air force worth noting

Guns (like in China) have been outlawed for civilians to possess due to the density of population. If a mass shooting occurred, hundreds or thousands of people could easily die.

 

[seren3]

Very sad

 

[Deleted User]

What a one sided affair that would be. More than 50% of the population of 7 million over 40, dense urban environment, minimal combat training in the population at large. Police force ( https://www.police.gov.hk/ppp_en/09_statistics/ ) of some 35000 representing any kind of armed force, 30000 if you take out civilians on staff. Said police seem to handle very few firearms incidents (0 in years that I can see, usually less than 5 "gun like objects") so presumably minimal training there, certainly nothing even resembling anti military vehicle or combined arms training.
All that vs China, which is right next door and has a presence in country, probably has a full sigint package on the go constantly for the area, is a world class military, has a world class navy, air force worth noting

You're forgetting the massive amounts of military aid they would most likely get. It may be a puppet war, more then anything else, but it'll be a war nonetheless.

 

[FAST6191]

You're forgetting the massive amounts of military aid they would most likely get. It may be a puppet war, more then anything else, but it'll be a war nonetheless.

Taiwan/ROC and some of the South China Sea stuff I could see something happening for. Hong Kong, which is unarguably part of China and has been for years (though they do technically still have the 50 year separate but still part thing to finish) would be harder to justify action for, to say nothing of it being hard from a military standpoint (it is literally right next door to China, even if they somehow managed to blow the bridges it would not be a logistical nightmare for paratroop and marine landing to deal with). This all says nothing of the financial and diplomatic position China enjoys... basically everywhere.
If the world can't even get its act together to sort that Russia-Ukraine business then the only way I can see anything happening for this scenario is if China's star wanes a bit (possible, corruption coupled with overly rapid growth, said growth now also being sustained by less than ideal means does not paint the rosiest forecast).

 

[seren3]

The Hong Kongers should be free

 

[FAST6191]

China does not have a world class military, all they do is zerg rush. China's terrain is shaped like a giant bowl and that's why they've had their shit kicked in by every neighboring nation for the last 1500 years. If anyone wants to stop China, it wouldn't be very difficult, it's more a matter of vested interest than military strength.

Zerg rush is still effective, especially with the numbers they have, but I would have to disagree. I would not place them in terms of quality and discipline* ahead of any former empire, former empire territory that is not a dinky island or peninsula, the US or similar. I would probably place them ahead of the Russians, certainly ahead of anything in the middle East. Technologically I don't know if they have an edge in anything in particular but I would not say they massively lag either. Terrain wise said ancient dynasties were smaller (today borders are either naval invasion, over mountains, through Russia or through southern jungles and smaller mountains.

*I don't know the general disposition and specific training but would place any reworking as similar to what the US et al experienced when going into Iraq and Afghanistan but with a cold war era Europe focused type of training.

Bit older but I will go it


Could be done but losses would be staggering and I don't see the political will.

 

[seren3]

As it stands though I doubt we'll go to war with China. The UN is supporting China's effort to pacify the Hong Kongers. It's very sad, but the international community will probably turn a blind eye to their plight.

 

[the_randomizer]

That's what we call a dick move. Most governments suck.

 

[chrisrlink]

one step closer to WW3 humanity will pay for it's stupidity sooner or later

 

[Carnelian]

one step closer to WW3 humanity will pay for it's stupidity sooner or later

Because of america...

 

[chrisrlink]

EXACTLY I may live here but i hate what the US has become

 

[Tarmfot]

EXACTLY I may live here but i hate what the US has become

And what Europe has become?

 

[Deleted User]

Chinese and Hong Kong relations have been steadily souring. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if a few years down the line, a civil war erupts.

Or international war if you're from Hong Kong.