Nintendo boosts switch forecast from 10 million units to 14 million units for first year

RustInPeace

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I think the only thing that would stop this seemingly upward momentum is if someone comes out and says a top Nintendo executive "sexually assaulted" them, with something as vicious as a butt grab. Seriously, seeing the Spacey situation, someone can go from hero to zero in 24 hours...tops.
 
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aykay55

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Anyone notice a complete lack of games from THQ-Nordic? Jeopardy, Wheel of Fortune, etc. They made ganes for every system. I mean EVERY system. Except the 3DS because DS versions already existed.
 

heartgold

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"7.63 million units from launch to today" and they reckon they can basically double that in Christmas?

That had better be a hell of a game push

10 million (or an extra 2 and bit million units being sold) would be a bit optimistic but I could see it. Still no way I can get to nearly 7 million.


You are not taking holiday season into account, Switch is hot right now and Nintendo hardware thrives in holidays and bulk of the sales are during holiday season too historically. It wasn't long ago it was having stock issues, heck still is in Japan, people have to play a lottery in retail to get a chance to purchase a Switch, that's how supply constraint it is or was.
 

aykay55

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"7.63 million units from launch to today" and they reckon they can basically double that in Christmas?

That had better be a hell of a game push
You're forgetting that the Switch is very much still in demand, and it will continue well into 2018 as people try to get their hands on the new hybrid console. After the holiday season, without a good launch lineup the rest of the year, the Switch might end up just like the Wii U. (god forbid, I love this console!)

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

Don't forget the fact Nintendo is sending out retail consoles just in time for Christmas, while Sony and Microsoft are lagging behind in marketing their 'upgrades'. Of all the stores I've gone to in the last year and a half, only two have functionong xbox demos, and my local stores are in no mood to fix/replace them. (Local stores meaning Target, Wal-Mart, ToysRUs)
 
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Iirc, their original sales estimate for this year was 5 million, and they're set to make at least double that. If they're at 7.43 million now, then 10 million is likely going to happen over the holidays and into early next year. 14 million? Now that sounds a bit high, but hey, if they can reach that, then that'd be cool. What I'm more anxious about than sales numbers is seeing what Nintendo has planned throughout 2018. 2017 was stacked with solid releases every month, but they haven't announced much for 2018 yet. I'm hoping they do a Nintendo Direct around the holiday season and give us some games to look forward to going into the new year. I think if there's a decent gap between Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and the next big Nintendo title, I'll pass the time by buying some of the excellent indie games that've hit the platform.
 
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duffmmann

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Zelda is going to be what 9 months come Christmas? Has any game, much less one with as much advertiser push as it had, ever made a dent that far in the future, especially with no DLC/expansions/sudden multiplayer mode to reinvigorate it? Equally I don't know if it has that much pull with the kids -- I could see pokemon playing here but Zelda is more well liked and nice than considered even vaguely essential. Going further we are still also talking about additional console sales -- many that want such a thing probably already have it, I still maintain most that reckon the switch has promise already have it and I would not be surprised to see more waiting for a switch lite/switch XL or something (Nintendo games stay pricey but they are hardly rare). That is before we consider that those wanting to play doom and those wanting to play skyrim (we will assume on the go is a big draw) probably have massive overlap in their audience as well. Slim possible exception if Doom fixed its multiplayer and it then becomes the main alternative to Splatoon a la what a lot of N64 devs tried to do, though I would suspect that becomes more people trying to extract value from a Switch than buying a Switch to play it.

I agree Sony and MS first party showings are weak, not that I am complaining at all (exclusives are bad from where I sit) but at the same time is Nintendo getting the third party stuff (at anything resembling the same quality -- the wii had cod but where PS3 vs 360 was probably more "what do your mates have?/do you want to pay for Live?/Which controller do you prefer" the wii was an also ran in this regard) they are getting? Zelda, Mario, Halo, Forza, Uncharted and such are nice but COD, Battlfield, Madden and FIFA rule the roost. Young Jimmy might enjoy Zelda if he played it but COD is where it is at, and as a parent I imagine COD+ Live/PSN for a year (or indeed game from me, Live/PSN from grandma) is a better prospect than a whole device. Speaking of whole new devices you know young Jimmy will definitely like a phone of which there are some notable efforts set to appear ( http://www.techadvisor.co.uk/new-product/mobile-phone/best-new-phones-3613852/ ) with several nice things being far less than a properly kitted out Switch.

LA Noire? Anything Rockstar North makes is huge, everything else is up for debate and this was not Rockstar North. It is also coming out on PS4 and Xbone so it is not like this will possibly be a definitive edition/single second chance to catch something cool like might have happened for some of the Wii U ports.

I forgot to also consider a potentially untapped market a la housewives with the DS and whatever went on with the Wii. I doubt we are going to see housewives come back from phones and tablets any time soon and if the switch was the next wii it would have done it already.

"year one ends in march 2018"
That is still ridiculously optimistic but more plausible than by Christmas, I shall note my potential error in assuming this was calendar year end and not release day + 365/four quarters or financial year or something. I don't know my January-Easter console sale window, games have been doing fairly well though these last few years as devs/publishers try to skip the Christmas glut. I don't think it has ever been huge but months of consistent solid sales do add up. I went back to gamefaqs to look at the release schedule but there was not a lot of info. Not sure what I might extrapolate from E3 and other info but that is a bit more effort than I am willing to put in right now.
I shall also have to look to see if this is some kind of forecast/projection they can be held to account for as well.

You are aware that Breath of the Wild does indeed have two DLC expansion packs right? The second one yet to release... your posts reak of ignorance, you thought end of the year meant calendar year and not year from release of the system. You also seem to think that BOTW is supposed to be the big holiday system seller... when it's clearly going to be Mario Odyssey, especially when you consider the Odyssey system bundle. If they’re over 7 and half million now, without Mario impacting sales numbers of the system yet, the holiday season around the corner, and 3 more months after that, and no, I don't find it hard to believe they'll hit that 14 million units sold figure in its first year.
 

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I think the only thing that would stop this seemingly upward momentum is if someone comes out and says a top Nintendo executive "sexually assaulted" them, with something as vicious as a butt grab. Seriously, seeing the Spacey situation, someone can go from hero to zero in 24 hours...tops.
I can just imagined Mario grabbing Nathan Drake’s ass lmao
 
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That's already half of the Wii U lifetime sales, in just six months. So, yeah, so much for the naysayers saying the Switch will be a flop.
Those who know better know that the Wii U is still the best console Nintendo has ever made, given that it can play just about every single game Nintendo has made over the past 30 years. 1000's of games available for the Wii U, and 15 for the switch. Right now, the switch and it's value for the money hardly compares to the Wii U. Most consumers are idiots.
 

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You are aware that Breath of the Wild does indeed have two DLC expansion packs right? The second one yet to release... your posts reak of ignorance, you thought end of the year meant calendar year and not year from release of the system. You also seem to think that BOTW is supposed to be the big holiday system seller... when it's clearly going to be Mario Odyssey, especially when you consider the Odyssey system bundle. If they’re over 7 and half million now, without Mario impacting sales numbers of the system yet, the holiday season around the corner, and 3 more months after that, and no, I don't find it hard to believe they'll hit that 14 million units sold figure in its first year.
I was aware of the DLCs but wrote them off as fairly minor as they seem to be that from what I have seen. I was not the one suggesting Zelda would be a system mover either, quite the opposite, and was actually responding to an earlier remark and I am not sure how you read it as such -- that is some serious fanboy blinkers you have going on there.
Equally many devices I deal with if they launch that early in the year (and the big advertising push started in January for a start of March release which is also still first quarter if you are doing January-January) just go round to the end of the calendar one. In a later post I acknowledged the potential mistake there.

I did also ponder if the numbers were pre Mario to make a larger delta. I am not convinced it will move enough systems to make the numbers a viable proposition.
 

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Oh no, now the Sony fans are going to come out of their holes and start their fanboy bickering.
As a sony fanboy, they just posted they shipped 68 million units since the launch of the PS4.

And I will probably buy a Switch myself. There's currently no way to play Xenoblade Chronicles 2, SMTV, Golf Story, and it would be my choice to play Wargroove on.
 
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rileysrjay

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As a sony fanboy, they just posted they shipped 68 million units since the launch of the PS4.

And I will probably buy a Switch myself. There's currently no way to play Xenoblade Chronicles 2, SMTV, Golf Story, and it would be my choice to play Wargroove on.
Saw that earlier, pretty impressive imo. I wonder if they'll beat the PS2 like people were saying. Sounds like your a pretty open minded Sony fanboy if you're considering getting a switch, I was referring to the ones that make fun of the switch and Xbox whenever they get the chance to and only own a ps4.
 
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CallmeBerto

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I just don't see 14 mil by March 2018. XBCX plus the holidays will easily push that to 10 mil but what about after? I'm looking on IGN's site and if you remove indie games....not much if anything at all.

If Nintendo plans to sell that many they need to have a direct by years end or early next year to bring the hype.
 
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