Do You Think The Gaming Industry Will Suffer Another Crash Soon?

[YouAreNotSugoi]

It was recently announced by the Entertainment Software Association that the gaming industry grew 9.7% from 2009 to 2012. In the same time span, the US economy grew by 2.4%. The gaming industry is constantly expanding as games aren't seen as just play things for kids. Almost every household in the first world has a gaming console even if it's just for Netflix or Blu-rays but, even though modern gaming is expanding, any semblance of innovation or originality seems to be waning. Compare games from the sixth generation to games of the seventh. Just the PS2 had some of the most imaginative and creative games out there. It had games like Shadow of The Colossus, Katamari Damacy, Persona 3 & 4 and Ico. Now look at the Xbox 360. We have about 11 Call of Duty games, 8 Assassin's Creed games, 5 Battlefield games, 5 main Halo games and 4 Gears of War games. Now these are all good games in one way or another but there is so little that gets changed with each sequel. The developers are content with not raising the bar and playing it safe. Don't get me wrong, there are some really unique games out there for the seventh generation but for every Catherine or Mirror's Edge, there's another 10 generic shooters with 5 hour long campaigns that rely entirely on shiny graphics and multiplayer.

The idea of gaming suffering another crash may sound absurd and you may feel differently but, I'm telling you right now. There will be a crash and it might not be that far away. Just because video games are this large of an industry, doesn't mean they can't fail and this might actually contribute to the crash. Atari was at its strongest when they shit the bed and the reason that happened was because they assumed people would buy anything they made. They got cocky and made games cheaper and cheaper and tried to sell games simply on their name. This over saturated the market with bad games and they destroyed any consumer confidence they had. That's what caused their fall from grace. Too many developers/publishers carry this same attitude. This already happened to THQ and almost Capcom. It's going to happen to another big one like Square Enix, EA or Ubisoft sooner or later and that's when the industry will crash. Publishers aren't going to risk putting out more games because of how expensive it is to produce a game. Triple A gaming will die out and indie developers will be the only survivors of the crash. I don't want this to happen but, I'm just looking at things realistically.

 

[SSG Vegeta]

You forgot Little Big Planet for the original/best game section

 

[grossaffe]

I don't know about an overall crash, but I suspect some areas of gaming could be in for a contraction while others are going to expand.

 

[Foxi4]

Definitely not. The gaming industry in general will not crash - gaming has become a widely accepted medium, just like other forms of entertainment. It may restructure, foci might shift, but we won't see a total "crash".

 

[TecXero]

There's too much built up under gaming for it to crash anymore. If worse comes to worse, the AAA side of things might suffer, but with how much money those companies have, they should have time to adapt. Even if they don't, we'll still have smaller companies and indies that have a lot of variety and tend to be willing to adapt more readily. There might be some sort of gaming recession on the side of the bigger companies for a time, but that's the worst that I think could possibly happen.

 

[emigre]

brb too busy laughing at the proposed scenario.

 

[Gahars]

God willing.

In all seriousness, no, not in any way comparable to the original crash. I could imagine a downturn (Hollywood is an institution and it's had several), but gaming is just so ubiquitous at this point. People are going to keep on keeping on with their Angry Birds or their PC and console titles.

That being said, there's some companies I wouldn't mind seeing downsize a bit, but that's just wishful thinking.

 

[Taleweaver]

I voted "yes", but I want to place some question marks on both the words "crash" and "soon".

In my opinion, we're already in a gaming crisis (link to a blog rant about it). AAA-titles cost so much that everyone wants to play it safe, resulting in too little change between versions (I even read a remark that watch_dogs resembles assassin's creed more than the most recent AC...and I'm not even that surprised). Release days often deliver games in such an unfinished state that it certainly won't take too long before the curve of selling games* will start to look different than it is. And as more people start holding back on preorders and fully priced games, budgets will diminish, which'll further diminish sales. And so on.

The thing is, though, that I think companies can sort of predict this behavior, and to a degree adapt to it. Games will be made on a lesser budget, but will make that budget count more. Indie games already prove that it's perfectly doable to create fun games with only a fraction of the budget. So I don't think valve, ubisoft, EA or any of the big players are going anywhere (okay, it may take the bankruptcy of one to get the other's attention...but I think they're already aware). And the audience is still there.

So...will things continue as it goes? No. Absolutely not. Today's standards of gaming will fade out sooner or later. But I don't think it'll be a quick "crash", as the word seems to suggest. More of a gradual landing of the current status-quo in favor of other, more cost-efficient ways to create, sell and play games.


The other thing is the "soon" part. As I explain in my blog, I think this trend has already started. Not just in terms of signs on the wall similar to the '83 crash, but in terms of the solution as well (if indies will be the sole survivors...won't that mean that gaming won't be dead to begin with?). The shift of moving from AAA-titles to smaller budget titles is already begun...it just hasn't reached critical mass yet. And even that is only if you don't count the countless of people gaming on smartphones/tablets.




*as it stands, the far majority of sales come from the first couple of weeks. Then it slows down to mere percentages, usually hitting a bit of a spike once the game goes on sale

 

[WiiCube_2013]

I guess not.

What should die would be the Free to Play games and Run Temples for the smartphones but it's not gonna happen people are too stupid and keep on playing that shit.

 

[Taleweaver]

What should die would be the Free to Play games and Run Temples for the smartphones but it's not gonna happen people are too stupid and keep on playing that shit.

The question you should be asking is: how is it possible that a cheaply-made game that can be played for free, on the go on a device you already have...can actually be more fun than a big budget title?
You can call those people stupid, but meanwhile they spend way less money on games than "hardcore gamers", and have an equal, if not larger amount of fun with it. So...who's stupid, exactly?


(disclaimer: I know that many free-to-play games are set up to gradually make you addicted to it so you end up throwing more money on it than you ever intended...but they're not all like that. Just like not all AAA-titles are by definition clones of the previous title in the franchise)

 

[WiiCube_2013]

The temple running games are just as repetitive and boring as the Dynasty Warriors' titles so I can see your point but there's quality console/PC games which are far better than smartphones games and don't even get me started with those lame ass touchscreen controls.

Playing FPS with touchscreen controls.. just don't.

 

[matpower]

Well, there is no way for an industry crash anymore, it is mainstream nowadays, we can see a focus change or low sales of certain genres but not a general crash.
Also I want to point that we have a few after-crash active companies like Nintendo, and I am sure they would try to avoid crashing the industry.
Like I said above, I can see a focus change, I think we will reach a point where the "casual" players will get tired of F2P/P2W genre and a small lack of interest on indies. Now for the "hardcore" players, I can see a lack of interest on the classical shiny graphics shooters and game rehashes, but elitism will make it a bit slower.

 

[Solid One]

If this crash really predicts that AAA games will die out and only indie developers will survive, so be it. There's a lot of indie games with tons of innovation and originality.

Indie games are very innovative and great in much ways. I had a lot of fun with some indie titles such as:

• Hotline Miami: Extremely addictive gameplay with graphics that resemple drugs effects, in a way to provoke strange emotions to the player.
• Rogue Legacy: Resembles Koji Igarashi's latest Castlevania games, with the innovation of procedural map generation each time a game starts.
• Guacamelee: Resembles Super Metroid ambiented on Mexico. Has very colourful graphics, a big map, coop mode and a lot of great puzzles to solve.
• Super Meat Boy: A platform game similar to Mario and Sonic games. It's a really hard game, but at the same time the difficult makes the game extremely addictive. The levels design are very creepy, and levels get creepier at the same time that difficulty increases. Some people say that this game can increase player's self-esteem when they achieve to beat difficult levels. Has great graphics and nostalgic soundtrack.
• Castle Crashers: A beat-em-up game with graphics similar to Super Meat Boy. Has coop mode with up to 4 players support and some hard-to-beat bosses. A bit repetitive, but a great indie game to play with your friends.
• Braid: A platform-puzzle game with great graphics and soundtrack. The levels' puzzles are very inventive and hard to beat. And the game provoke good emotions to the player.

That being said, indie games FTW!

 

[matpower]

If this crash really predicts that AAA games will die out and only indie developers will survive, so be it. There's a lot of indie games with tons of innovation and originality.

Indie games are very innovative and great in much ways. I had a lot of fun with some indie titles such as:

• Hotline Miami: Extremely addictive gameplay with graphics that resemple drugs effects, in a way to provoke strange emotions to the player.
• Rogue Legacy: Resembles Koji Igarashi's latest Castlevania games, with the innovation of procedural map generation each time a game starts.
• Guacamelee: Resembles Super Metroid ambiented on Mexico. Has very colourful graphics, a big map, coop mode and a lot of great puzzles to solve.
• Super Meat Boy: A platform game similar to Mario and Sonic games. It's a really hard game, but at the same time the difficult makes the game extremely addictive. The levels design are very creepy, and levels get creepier at the same time that difficulty increases. Some people say that this game can increase player's self-esteem when they achieve to beat difficult levels. Has great graphics and nostalgic soundtrack.
• Castle Crashers: A beat-em-up game with graphics similar to Super Meat Boy. Has coop mode with up to 4 players support and some hard-to-beat bosses. A bit repetitive, but a great indie game to play with your friends.
• Braid: A platform-puzzle game with great graphics and soundtrack. The levels' puzzles are very inventive and hard to beat. And the game provoke good emotions to the player.

That being said, indie games FTW!

Well, for each 1 good indie game, there is 10 shitty indie games, like The Letter...

 

[Taleweaver]

Well, for each 1 good indie game, there is 10 shitty indie games, like The Letter...

True. And when you strip away the hype and look back at past titles, AAA-titles have about 5 shitty games per good one. So the odds may be better, but with AAA-titles heading toward repetition and cloning, I take my chance on smaller projects that do more in terms of innovation and originality.

 

[war2thegrave]

I hope for a crash. Shit has gotten nuts.

Some people are pre-ordering games 12 - 18 months before release.
Publishers are planing the 5th and 6th sequels to new games that are
years from a release date.

Developers have locked away content behind DLC pay walls that used to
be unlocked as bonus content or in game cheat codes.

People can pre-order DLC months or years in advance. (WTF?)

Publishers hack off entire sections of game content while in development
and resell it as "day one" DLC and people gladly pay for it, leading developers
to assume that it is an acceptable business practice.

On top of that, successful indie developers are forming into cliques with journalists
and using their combined muscle to push sjw propaganda and punish and eliminate
any game related entity that isn't aligned with their cults beliefs.