Macroaxis: Sony Has 79% Chance of Going Bankrupt in the Next 2 Years

[OriginalHamster]

According to Macroaxis, a financial engineering tool website that analyzes companies and determines their well-being, Sony Entertainment has a discouraging 79% chance of going bankrupt in the next 2 years.

“Based on latest financial disclosure Sony Corporation has Probability Of Bankruptcy of 78%. This is 182.34% higher than that of Consumer Goods sector, and 163.57% higher than that of Electronic Equipment industry, The Probability Of Bankruptcy for all stocks is 122.48% lower than the firm.”




While it wouldn’t be factual to say that SNE will fail in the next 2 years (it’s all a guess), the 78.49% figure is based off of real, actual numbers. Many will consider this number overly inflated, but it all doesn’t sound too far-fetched when you take into consideration some of the things that have been happening over in Sony Land. Last year, Sony’s market value was slashed down to “junk” status, and they’ve sold multiple HQ buildings as well. Not to mention, Sony still hasn’t recovered from all of the money they’ve lost on the PS3, and the Vita is still not profitable and isn’t selling as well as it should.

For comparative purposes, Macroaxis is stating that Nintendo has only a 22% chance of failing in the next 2 years, which is very ironic considering the fact that the majority of gamers and journalists online are always claiming that Nintendo is in imminent danger, when in reality Nintendo is very healthy and Sony is the actually the one closest to failing out of the console manufacturers. Microsoft is sitting off to the side with only 1% chance of failure.


http://gaminrealm.com/2013/12/30/sony-79-chance-bankrupt-2-years/

 

[Foxi4]

No additional comment required, as I don't think this is really newsworthy. I mean, really, it's an article about an online bot using questionable calculations to decide whether or not an industry giant has a chance to fall within the next few years. Not actual analysts, a bot. Great.

 

[OriginalHamster]

No additional comment required, as I don't think this is really newsworthy. I mean, really, it's an article about an online bot using questionable calculations to decide whether or not an industry giant has a chance to fall within the next few years. Not actual analysts, a bot. Great.

What are those questionable calculations exactly, would you give us some examples to back up your claim?

Well this "bot" is actually a tool, and works on hard data, unlike many analysts that preach out of their ass. Geez the number of times that analyts are been on spot about something in this industry is quite hilarious.

 

[Foxi4]

What are those questionable calculations exactly, would you give us some examples to back up your claim?

Well this "bot" is actually a tool, and works on hard data, unlike many analysts that preach out of their ass. Geez the number of times that analyts are been on spot about something in this industry is quite hilarious.

This bot is also mentioning that companies are to be considered "high-risk" if their Probability of Bankrupcy ratio reaches 90% or above. This means that Sony's well-under the high-risk marker and isn't as likely to go bankrupt as it seems - they have wiggle room to turn things around.

It also mentions that the function used are linear, which means that "if nothing drastically changes", they are accurate. Thing is, something drastically changed - the PS4 was released. It has not been reflected on any data as of yet since it's not the time for quarterly business reports. Apparently it sells like cure for cancer, but what do I know?

Additionally, Sony is not a uniform critter - it's composed of numerous smaller entities, from Computer Entertainment to Life Insurance - "Sony" as a whole has many faces, some doing better, some doing worse.

All of the information regarding the calculation is naturally available on the Macroaxis website, all of the factors I'm talking about would be taken into account by a human and would not by a machine which has to be fed reports to stay accurate.

EDIT: Just an additional tidbit, the calculated chance is 78.49%. In the world of mathemathics, you most often round up (celling) when you get past the half point mark and round down (flooring) when you have not. In other words, the title should be 78%, but that's just me nitpicking.

 

[OriginalHamster]

Sony maybe doing better as a company but its stock is nowhere near as strong as its competition and if Sony gets delisted from the American stock markets because investors start jumping ship it's going to look real bad. The rest of the company is still in horrible shape and not really growing at an expected rate. The PS4 is the only thing keeping Sony alive right now. And let's not forget that PlayStation is just a branch of its many electronics, to think it will keep afloat the whole other branchs is naive at best.

 

[Foxi4]

Sony maybe doing better as a company but its stock is nowhere near as strong as its competition and if Sony gets delisted from the American stock markets because investors start jumping ship it's going to look real bad. The rest of the company is still in horrible shape and not really growing at an expected rate. The PS4 is the only thing keeping Sony alive right now.

As far as I know, Sony's biggest "earner" is the Financial Services sector, but hey! It might as well be the PS4 if you think so.

 

[ShadowSoldier]

Wait, doesn't Sony deal with TV's, laptops, programs, game development, consoles, phones, stereo's, movies, tv, music?

Aren't all of those, if not most, doing pretty good? The only ones that are probably doing bad is Laptops and maybe phones are low.

 

[Foxi4]

Wait, doesn't Sony deal with TV's, laptops, programs, game development, consoles, phones, stereo's, movies, tv, music?

Aren't all of those, if not most, doing pretty good? The only ones that are probably doing bad is Laptops and maybe phones are low.

You would think that, but Sony dips their paws in more than just that. According to their financial releases, they earn the most from their banks, life insurance agencies and from manufacturing components for other manufacturers - semi-conductors and the likes.

In all honesty, Sony could stop making consoles, TV's, cameras and whatnot and they would still comfortably fall on the pillow of their other businesses. They're in no immediate danger of failing - the electronics industry is just one of the many industries they invest in.

 

[Sterling]

Anyone can see the Sony is floundering, correction, their gaming division. Sony as a whole will not be going anywhere close to bankruptcy if their assets have anything to say about it. There's a few things that could happen. Since both Microsoft and Sony's gaming divisions have operated in the red for several years, we could see both brands simply collapse. However, these are very powerful brand names that continue to get more popular. They're going try to save both at any cost if it comes to that.

If I had to make a prediction, we're on the edge of another gaming collapse... console wise at least. Due to the stagnation of the home market, and cheap hardware for on-the-go gaming (aka mobile).

Right now, I'm seeing the rise of crowd funding, and other forms of easy investment systems. This makes the next few years a hotbed of innovation for gaming and technology in general. If Kickstarter was around when the Pandora was in development, we might be seeing a slightly different market. I digress though. If these closed consoles don't ask for more from their third party developers, two of the big three might simply fade away.

Indie gaming is where it's at, and I'm not trying to be a hipster about it. Smaller developers have less and less to lose by the day. This allows for more innovation and less censorship by a parent studio. In the end, it's the player that wins. The satisfaction from seeing a game you've personally put money into coming to life is incredible.

Back to the possible crash, if Sony and Microsoft do fade, Nintendo will be the one to survive. Thanks to their safe business practices, and luck, they've amassed an enormous pocketbook, and asset pool. They have nearly all the most recognizable IPs in the video gaming world. Zelda, Mario, and Pokemon are all very high profile concepts that crank out profits like it's being printed on-site. Since they're a Japanese company, they have the benefit of holding a large part of the market by default.

You see, we're on the edge of a personal gaming golden age. We might even see the rise of crowdfunded platforms that make Bob's (maker of bob's game) Console looks like tomfoolery. Steam Greenlight is only the beginning. Mark my words, the big three have to adapt, or risk losing their foothold at a crucial time.

 

[Bobbybangin]

It makes sense seeing as Sony's debt rating was recently downgraded to junk status. This rating downgrade comes despite the acknowledgment by the ratings group of restructuring plans by Sony, including Sony's One Sony restructuring program. Part of the turnaround strategy includes Sony cutting 10,000 jobs. That's usually a very troubling sign.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/22/investing/fitch-sony-panasonic-downgrade/

 

[ShadowSoldier]

Anyone can see the Sony is floundering, correction, their gaming division. Sony as a whole will not be going anywhere close to bankruptcy if their assets have anything to say about it. There's a few things that could happen. Since both Microsoft and Sony's gaming divisions have operated in the red for several years, we could see both brands simply collapse. However, these are very powerful brand names that continue to get more popular. They're going try to save both at any cost if it comes to that.

If I had to make a prediction, we're on the edge of another gaming collapse... console wise at least. Due to the stagnation of the home market, and cheap hardware for on-the-go gaming (aka mobile).

Right now, I'm seeing the rise of crowd funding, and other forms of easy investment systems. This makes the next few years a hotbed of innovation for gaming and technology in general. If Kickstarter was around when the Pandora was in development, we might be seeing a slightly different market. I digress though. If these closed consoles don't ask for more from their third party developers, two of the big three might simply fade away.

Indie gaming is where it's at, and I'm not trying to be a hipster about it. Smaller developers have less and less to lose by the day. This allows for more innovation and less censorship by a parent studio. In the end, it's the player that wins. The satisfaction from seeing a game you've personally put money into coming to life is incredible.

Back to the possible crash, if Sony and Microsoft do fade, Nintendo will be the one to survive. Thanks to their safe business practices, and luck, they've amassed an enormous pocketbook, and asset pool. They have nearly all the most recognizable IPs in the video gaming world. Zelda, Mario, and Pokemon are all very high profile concepts that crank out profits like it's being printed on-site. Since they're a Japanese company, they have the benefit of holding a large part of the market by default.

You see, we're on the edge of a personal gaming golden age. We might even see the rise of crowdfunded platforms that make Bob's (maker of bob's game) Console looks like tomfoolery. Steam Greenlight is only the beginning. Mark my words, the big three have to adapt, or risk losing their foothold at a crucial time.

Umm.. you know Sony is a lot more than just games... right?

 

[FireGrey]

Yeah sony goes bankrupt and nintendo makes the playstation 5

 

[Sterling]

Umm.. you know Sony is a lot more than just games... right?

Anyone can see the Sony is floundering, correction, their gaming division.

It's like you only read the first seven words and your mind came to a screeching halt, producing this: "I must correct this dire mistake. He must know how foolish his entire post must be. To get something so wrong when it was mentioned by me mere moments ago is a travesty."

You see, I'm the sharpest and brightest tool in the shed buddy.

 

[Gahars]

According to Macroaxis

Great, so now the Axis is involved?

The mafia, the nazis... geez, this video game business goes all the way to the top, doesn't it?

 

[Clarky]

Umm.. you know Sony is a lot more than just games... right?

Read his opening statement again

 

[ShadowSoldier]

It's like you only read the first seven words and your mind came to a screeching halt, producing this: "I must correct this dire mistake. He must know how foolish his entire post must be. To get something so wrong when it was mentioned by me mere moments ago is a travesty."

You see, I'm the sharpest and brightest tool in the shed buddy.

Or you know, instead of being a fucking prick on a kid's forum, you could just go "eh, benefit of the doubt, he probably simply just misread or didn't see it". It happens.

 

[Sterling]

Or you know, instead of being a fucking prick on a kid's forum, you could just go "eh, benefit of the doubt, he probably simply just misread or didn't see it". It happens.

Yeah, no. I'd give it to someone who doesn't do this on a daily basis though. Cheers.

Anyone else have any insight on what might be happening in the near future? I'm kinda banking on another collapse, but I love my Vita too much to see it die.

 

[ShadowSoldier]

Yeah, no. I'd give it to someone who doesn't do this on a daily basis though. Cheers.

Ya because you're totally one to talk right?

Anyways, for your stupid question. No collapse. Doesn't make sense considering it's booming more than ever.

my guess, Sony isn't going anywhere. Doesn't make any sense considering they're posting profits.

 

[DSGamer64]

Wait, doesn't Sony deal with TV's, laptops, programs, game development, consoles, phones, stereo's, movies, tv, music?

Aren't all of those, if not most, doing pretty good? The only ones that are probably doing bad is Laptops and maybe phones are low.

It doesn't matter how many resources they have, many of them generate almost no additional revenue for the company as a whole. For the last 15 years Sony has operated with razor thin profit margins and their excessive spending developing consoles has really impacted their bottom line. You know your business isn't making much money when it's cheaper to replace a product with a newer model then it is to fix it. One of my friends had a Sony TV that was still under warranty and it took a big crap and died, they replaced it with a larger model that cost the same price as the previous one.

 

[Taleweaver]

Interesting figure, but nowhere near as dramatic as I thought it was at first glance. As said, it only measures data, not sales estimates. So the PS4 sales are, at best, partially added while the costs of research and manufacturing is most likely added much more. It doesn't require a genius to predict this percentage will soon drop.
And if not...bankruptcy only happens if they can't pay their bills anymore. My guess is that in the worst case scenario, sony will inject some money in the department from other departments with lower risk.

But to be honest, I'm much more interested to know how microsoft manages to have 78.49 times lower chance to go bankrupt. Didn't they put research into their console as well? Didn't they have a...not-so-great sales talk back at E3? In fact...didn't one of the candidate CEO's propose to get rid of the xbox brand a few months ago?
So this is mostly VERY bad news for some chairmembers in the sony entertainment board. I suspect some heavy meetings coming up for them...

(nintendo, I can understand. They have so much financial reserves they can probably go some decades without even selling a single unit)