Consoles Less Powerful Than Smartphones Before End of Generation

[Kirito-kun]

Has anyone else thought of this?

Xbox One is capable of 1300 GFLOPS
PS4 is capable of 1840 GFLOPS

Both Microsoft and Sony have stated that they intend for the 8th generation to last 10 years.

Moore's law states that computing power doubles every 18 months.

Most powerful mobile SoC currently available is the Snapdragon 800, capable of 130 GFLOPS.

6 years into the future, the most powerful mobile SoC is therefore estimated to be capable of 2080 GFLOPS, surpassing the processing power of both the Xbox One and PS4.

10 years into the future, at the end of the 8th generation, the most powerful mobile SoC will be capable of 16640 GFLOPS, 9 times more powerful than the PS4 and 13 times more powerful than the Xbox One.

 

[Deleted_171835]

For one, this generation isn't going to last 10 years.

 

[DinohScene]

Look, me phone can run GTA 5!!
Oh shit, battery is empty, brb got to recharge.


I still don't have a smartphone and I dun care about them either.
it's fun and all but meh, it just doesn't appeal to me.

As for Moore's law.
That means that new phones will become available a month after the last one gets released?
600 quid just to play a new game that a PC or console could also play?

 

[Foxi4]

Moore's Law states that the number of transistors doubles every 18-or-so months, not their computing power. You'll get better "results" if you compare the initial Adreno results with contemporary Adreno results - that'll give you a clearer picture of what's ahead.

For example, the Adreno 130 (Snapdragon S1 MSM7x01) pushed 1.2 GFLOPS and was developed around 2007 (although at that point it was not called Adreno yet, at that time Qualcomm after 2008), the Adreno 330 pushes 130 GFLOPS and is one of their latest designs. In other words, we saw a 128,8 GFLOPS increase in processing power after 6 years.

Thinking that we'll see a 2080 GFLOPS mobile GPU within the next ten is pretty wishful thinking - there are many things in the way of such a design - the power source, heat dissipation etc. We'll be lucky to see them match the performance of Next Gens, but that's about it.

This generation isn't going to last 10 years.

Console generations progressively increase in terms of their length. The last one lasted 7 years and hasn't ended yet (we still see triple-A games being developed for contemporary systems, although these will probably gradually dry out like it was the case with PS2 games after the PS3 was released, using it as an example since it was the only console that generation which wasn't discontinued earlier), it's not a far-off dream to imagine that the next one would last considerably longer.

 

[Kirito-kun]

Moore's Law states that the number of transistors doubles every 18-or-so months, not their computing power. You'll get better "results" if you compare the initial Adreno results with contemporary Adreno results - that'll give you a clearer picture of what's ahead.

For example, the Adreno 130 (Snapdragon S1 MSM7x01) pushed 1.2 GFLOPS and was developed around 2007 (although at that point it was not called Adreno yet, at that time Qualcomm after 2008), the Adreno 300 pushes 130 GFLOPS and is one of their latest designs. In other words, we saw a 128,8 GFLOPS increase in processing power after 6 years.

Thinking that we'll see a 2080 GFLOPS mobile GPU within the next ten is pretty wishful thinking - there are many things in the way of such a design - the power source, heat dissipation etc. We'll be lucky to see them match the performance of Next Gens, but that's about it.

But remember that the growth is exponential, not linear.

Adreno 130: 1.2 GFLOPS
Adreno 200: 2.1 GFLOPS
Adreno 205: 8.5 GFLOPS
Adreno 220: 17 GFLOPS
Adreno 305: 25.6 GFLOPS
Adreno 320: 51.2 GFLOPS
Adreno 330: 130 GFLOPS

 

[slingblade1170]

Its not crazy to think phones will be more powerful than consoles if they actually run their 10 year "journey" as they call it. I just don't see how Xbone & PS4 will make it last for 10 years with technology already ahead of them as it is. If MS & Sony are dedicated to that time stretch then Nintendo may have the right idea and could release a new console in 5 years that will be more up-to-date.

 

[Foxi4]

But remember that the growth is exponential, not linear.

Adreno 130: 1.2 GFLOPS
Adreno 200: 2.1 GFLOPS
Adreno 205: 8.5 GFLOPS
Adreno 220: 17 GFLOPS
Adreno 305: 25.6 GFLOPS
Adreno 320: 51.2 GFLOPS
Adreno 330: 130 GFLOPS

Very true, which is why the chips you mention and the dates they were developed don't match Moore's Law's principles. Unfortunately unlike full-sized CPU's/GPU's, mobile CPU's/GPU's just have more hurdles to jump over. The die size is already pretty darn small and we're nearing the point in silicone-based technology where all we can realistically do is pack more cores onto the die. That, and mobile devices offer practically zero ventilation and really small amounts of power.

Do note how the Scorpion Snapdragon CPU's push 2.1 DMIPS-per-MHz-per-core while Krait Snapdragons push 3.3 DMIPS-per-MHz-per-core and you'll realize that it's not so much an increase in the horsepower of a single core that's increasing at a rapid rate, rather the number of cores on the die since Scorpion-based Snapdragons had 1 to 2 CPU cores while Krait ones could fit 1, 2 or even 4 cores, hence the "massive" increase in processing power. There's six years between those designs and we've only seen a 30-odd% increase in horsepower-per-core wheras according to your original assumption, it should've been a 100% each two years.

This tactic will reach a bottleneck soon enough though, and this is because there's only so many cores you can fit with currently used lithographies before you run out of die space or create a die so big that it'll melt a hole through the phone.

At one point, adding cores will have to give way to introducing enhancements to the core itself.

 

[Dork]

Moore's law should be considered an observation or conjecture and not a physical or natural law.

Also, why are you even comparing two specific closed-platform, non-upgradeable platforms to the entirety of smartphones that's always changing? A better comparison would be PC vs. Smartphone hardware.

 

[Tom Bombadildo]

I'd just like to point out that heat dissipation is a huge factor with mobile hardware nowadays. I've got a Galaxy S4, and when under load (read: Playing shit like Sonic Racing and other various games) the thing heats up like a bitch, sometimes to a point where I'm afraid it'll overheat if I continue playing. Unless we figure out a better way to disperse the heat built up, we won't see much of a practical performance boost (at least, to a point where they'll be "more powerful then next gen hardware"). Also, battery life yo. Even on some of the better power saving CPU governors, my battery doesn't last too long when gaming on the phone. I get a 15-20% drop when playing some game on DraStic for 30+ min.

 

[Wisenheimer]

Just a few thoughts. To begin with, a computer is not the same as a CPU, especially when it comes to gaming. The CPU in a top end android phone today is pretty much equivalent of the best CPUs they had when the gamecube and xbox were entering the market, especially for multithreaded applications. In terms of overall power, a Samsung S4 is pretty much the equivalent walking around with a workstation PC from ten years ago in your pocket. That is very impressive.

But gains in gameplay are more modest, because CPU power and RAM is only one part of the picture. I believe the Vita still has the most powerful GPU in a smartphone today (not counting of course things like the next generation iPad and the like), but if you look at overall gameplay, it is not exactly pushing a cutting edge experience. Vita games are awfully similar to what you would get on a gamecube or Xbox. That is not to say that going from a console experience to a handheld experience in a decade is not impressive, but when you consider how long it took to go from the SNES to the GBA, it is not exactly unsurprising.

Right now mobile devices seem to be about a decade behind PCs which probably has a lot more to do with shrinking the fab process than anything else. But silicon has limits, and we are getting awfully close to them, so Moore's law is certainly going to have to hit a limit in Silicon, and hit it soon. This newest generation of consoles may be the last you can fit in your pocket in ten years until they figure out a new way to make chips smaller.

 

[orcid]

I don`t think that the computing power of smartphones will increase as fast as now in the future. When they reached a certain power they developer will concentrate to make smartphones with a lower power consumption and better screens.
Maybe it will be possible to build a smartphone that is more powerful than the ps4/xboxone, but the normal consumer won´t have such a phone.
Look at the development of the notebooks. It's not about pure computing power anymore.

 

[Wisenheimer]

I don`t think that the computing power of smartphones will increase as fast as now in the future. When they reached a certain power they developer will concentrate to make smartphones with a lower power consumption and better screens.
Maybe it will be possible to build a smartphone that is more powerful than the ps4/xboxone, but the normal consumer won´t have such a phone.
Look at the development of the notebooks. It's not about pure computing power anymore.

How much better can the screens get? Mine is 1080p. The only improvement I can think of is a transflective mode for outdoor use.

 

[Foxi4]

I'd just like to point out that heat dissipation is a huge factor with mobile hardware nowadays. I've got a Galaxy S4, and when under load (read: Playing shit like Sonic Racing and other various games) the thing heats up like a bitch, sometimes to a point where I'm afraid it'll overheat if I continue playing. Unless we figure out a better way to disperse the heat built up, we won't see much of a practical performance boost (at least, to a point where they'll be "more powerful then next gen hardware"). Also, battery life yo. Even on some of the better power saving CPU governors, my battery doesn't last too long when gaming on the phone. I get a 15-20% drop when playing some game on DraStic for 30+ min.

This is a major issue and it will continue being an issue until smartphone manufacturers will realize that it's about time to put some heatsinks on those CPU's because releasing the slimmest smartphone ever is not impressive if said smartphone shuts down the moment the user tries to... actually use it.

Much like with PC's and consoles, the massive leaps in terms of hardware specs are not made for the sake of prettier spreadsheets or nicer calendars - manufacturers pack mobile gaming-grade hardware into their handsets for the sake of gaming and if said hardware is to be impressive, it has to actually be useful.

Your average run-of-the-mill thin radiator will add a couple of milimeters to the thickness of the device, yes. It will make it heavier, yes. It will make it ever-so-slightly bulkier, yes. It will also allow you to actually use it, so hey - what a terrible trade-off that is!

Oh, and by the way, manufacturers? Stop putting SoC's directly under batteries, mmm-kay? Not only you're lowering battery life, you're causing a fire hazard.

 

[Gahars]

Going along with what everyone else said (because I want to be cool), the market's a huge limiting factor here. Most people who do their gaming on smartphones prefer their games to be either free or extremely cheap (a few bucks at most); that's not going to sustain the development time and resources necessary to take full advantage of the hardware.

So even if developers could theoretically blow consoles out of the water, there's little incentive to actually do so.

 

[Ryukouki]

Going along with what everyone else said (because I want to be cool), the market's a huge limiting factor here. Most people who do their gaming on smartphones prefer their games to be either free or extremely cheap (a few bucks at most); that's not going to sustain the development time and resources necessary to take full advantage of the hardware.

So even if developers could theoretically blow consoles out of the water, there's little incentive to actually do so.

Or you can be the game like Puzzle and Dragons and roll several million dollars daily LOL.

 

[Kirito-kun]

I believe the Vita still has the most powerful GPU in a smartphone today (not counting of course things like the next generation iPad and the like)

Not really. The Vita's GPU is already outdated. It's only capable of 50 GFLOPS. The Adreno 330 (130 GFLOPS), the Tegra 4 (97 GFLOPS), the Mali-T604MP2 (68 GFLOPS), the A7 (>100 GFLOPS), the A6X (77 GFLOPS) are already more powerful.

 

[Gahars]

Or you can be the game like Puzzle and Dragons and roll several million dollars daily LOL.

...Because Puzzle and Dragons is a graphically intensive, high-budgeted title, right?

The problem with the mobile market is that it's extremely difficult to get noticed. Sure, you'll have the rare breakout success stories here and there, but a whole lot more titles (good and bad, from new developers and old) get lost in the shuffle. You'll have the occasional breakout success stories like Puzzle and Dragons, but those are an increasingly rare exception. Developers want to keep their costs low; the cheaper you keep your games, the easier it is to minimize your losses and the faster you'll turn a profit from whatever fans you do manage to accumulate.

You start throwing AAA-budgets into that market and you are begging for bankruptcy.

 

[Ryukouki]

...Because Puzzle and Dragons is a graphically intensive, high-budgeted title, right?

The problem with the mobile market is that it's extremely difficult to get noticed. Sure, you'll have the rare breakout success stories here and there, but a whole lot more titles (good and bad, from new developers and old) get lost in the shuffle. You'll have the occasional breakout success stories like Puzzle and Dragons, but those are an increasingly rare exception. Developers want to keep their costs low; the cheaper you keep your games, the easier it is to minimize your losses and the faster you'll turn a profit from whatever fans you do manage to accumulate.

You start throwing AAA-budgets into that market and you are begging for bankruptcy.

It's a decently graphic heavy...ish... game. And yeah, I totally see what you mean.

 

[Wisenheimer]

Not really. The Vita's GPU is already outdated. It's only capable of 50 GFLOPS. The Adreno 330 (130 GFLOPS), the Tegra 4 (97 GFLOPS), the Mali-T604MP2 (68 GFLOPS), the A7 (>100 GFLOPS), the A6X (77 GFLOPS) are already more powerful.

1) gFLOPs is pretty much how many raw floating point operations a processor can crunch. If you are running an N-body simulation on Tesla, it might be the only number you care about, but it is just one among several important measures of GPU performance.

2) There are certainly significantly more powerful GPU chips on the market, but to the best of my knowledge, they are just beginning to be incorporated into new smartphones. I would guess that there are few, if any, normal smartphones in the US available right now that have any significant advantage over the Vita GPU, and that is not even considering the overhead that Android/Windows/iOS requires.

Considering that the Android market, for instance, requires that games support the last several major versions of the OS (including the hardware they are licensed on), the Vita GPU is hardly "outdated". We are just beginning to see phones that outmuscle its GPU being manufactured for the US market.

 

[Kirito-kun]

1) gFLOPs is pretty much how many raw floating point operations a processor can crunch. If you are running an N-body simulation on Tesla, it might be the only number you care about, but it is just one among several important measures of GPU performance.

2) There are certainly significantly more powerful GPU chips on the market, but to the best of my knowledge, they are just beginning to be incorporated into new smartphones. I would guess that there are few, if any, normal smartphones in the US available right now that have any significant advantage over the Vita GPU, and that is not even considering the overhead that Android/Windows/iOS requires.

Considering that the Android market, for instance, requires that games support the last several major versions of the OS (including the hardware they are licensed on), the Vita GPU is hardly "outdated". We are just beginning to see phones that outmuscle its GPU being manufactured for the US market.

More powerful GPUs? Would that be mobile GPUs or GPUs in general. Cause the standards are completely different. If there exist more powerful GPUs, link please?