Considering how almost everyone that got banned had played a pirated copy of USUM at one point or another and how they only got banned after updating the game makes it hard to NOT believe that was the cause. And for all we know they could have done something sneaky like adding a function in the update that checked the contents of the SD card for .firms/.bins and banned accordingly, as it's not exactly impossible to do...
They don't know everything and unless they do something sneaky through updates, they still have absolutely no way to tell whether people have CFW or not.
i didn't get banned even tho i activated everything and playing online with cheats
Activated what? Online with what cheats exactly? And it almost definitely had to do with people having pirated copies of USUM as it happened right after the "mandatory" (not at all honestly) 1.2 update.
Activating like all Spotpass on all games
This was already discussed and confirmed after the *previous* ban wave. People have done tests and confirmed that, upon launching titles, if your 3DS is connected to the internet, Nintendo receives data. This is with SpotPass settings turned off, mind you. It's presumed this data includes Title ID of the launched Title, which would be enough to confirm the existence of CFW (because if the Title ID is one that is not valid, it's obviously not something one should be running). I don't know why you're so adamant that Nintendo does not receive this data. It's already been proven to be a thing. If I have to find and quote the reply in that thread yet again, I guess I can.
Well I support the theory because I've been doing all sorts of dodgy shit with my CFW 3DS, like forgetting to turn wifi off when opening homebrew shit, and I haven't been banned. I've even run a pirated Ultra Moon. Only thing I haven't done is patched it.
Playing online with cheats will AT MOST ban you IN-GAME, not console ban. If you got legit copy, you should be 100% safe, as it's apparently the pirated ones that got hit. As for Spotpass, it doesn't really matter, Spotpass in games only affects data sent and received between users, Nintendo still gets it anyway, and the Sending of Information in Spotpass settings for the entire system still doesn't change a thing concerning whether you get banned or not.
Too many coincidences regarding the banwave and the USUM 1.2 patch to just dismiss. People have had CFW for YEARS now and didn't get banned until now, I'm one of them, having had CFW for 4 years now and playing installed CIAs of most homebrews without issues, but the moment I updated USUM I got banned. Kinda weird to be irrelevant, don't you think?:/
I know about it all and it proves my point exactly. Nintendo CAN'T know if you have CFW or not unless you use homebrews online WITHOUT it being through the Rosalina entrypoint or the HBL, but people who only used Rosalina for homebrew STILL got banned after updating USUM to 1.2. I never said they don't receive the data, but unless you do something stupid like that, they CAN'T know, which is what I said and expected it to be obvious! Also, I even had a PRIVATE seed that I wasn't even using get banned the moment I restored it to unban myself the first time and I ran UM for just a minute to help a friend trade evolve a Pokemon (NO homebrew or anything ran from when I restored it until it got banned like 20 mins later and why I think that blaming USUM's patch is a valid assumption), FAR too sudden considering I had never done anything with that seed online (literally backed it up right away via hardmod dump before I connected the system online for the first time).
What do you mean exactly?
If you haven't pirated or made a cartridge dump of USUM, then you'd be fine.
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