If they anounced it on direct there wouldnt be a surprise (probably because of leak). If I remember it correctly there was financial meeting at Nintendo HQ this week and that was the reason they have showed their trump card.
People will still buy the 3DS and 3DS software, regardless of whether Nintendo is still involved. The library is substantial and unit supply is ample, there's just no need for a new revision, they're patching a boat that isn't sinking instead of throwing a lifesaver at the guy drowning overboard. The Switch has good momentum right now and sells like hotcakes, why Nintendo's trying to steal the thunder away from it is beyond me.
The dedicated handheld console market is in decline. Just a generation ago there was enough room for the DS (154.8 million units sold) and the PSP (80.6 million units sold) to coexist. This generation the PSVita (approx. 15.4 million units sold) couldn't even gain a foothold anywhere besides Japan and is basically considered legacy while the 3DS (66.1 million units sold to date) is nowhere near reaching even half of the DS's popularity, or even matching the Game Boy Advance's (81.5 million units). Whether we like it or not, smartphones are pushing handheld consoles out of the way, much like they have pushed PDA's, MP3 players and personal satnavs into obscurity. Everyone has them, so they might as well game on them instead of buying another device. Nintendo knows this, which is precisely why they designed the Switch as a hybrid - to have the advantage by also doubling as a home console. In addition they're also branching out and making increasingly bold steps in the smartphone gaming arena with games like Super Mario Run or Fire Emblem Heroes - expect more of those. Of course, as you've mentioned before, I'm no expert - I can just look at a chart and point out a downward spiral when I see one.
The NES Classic was never meant as anything more than a limited, highly sought-after collectible - it has "Limited" printed on the box. It wasn't even meant as a highly functional console if you consider the controller cable length, it's just something you're supposed to play from time to time and then put back on a shelf and admire. If they kept manufacturing it so that everyone and their dog had one, it wouldn't be very limited, would it?
North America is and always has been Nintendo's primary sales target, Americans buy more Nintendo hardware than any other region of the world. The 3DS is the only notable exception from the rule, with North America lagging behind Japan, and only by about a million units. To show some examples, the N64 sold 5.5 million units in Japan, 6.3 in Europe and a whopping 20.1 in North America, which saved it from being a total commercial disaster. The Game Boy line sold 32.4 million units in Japan, 40 in Europe and 43.1 in North America. The GBA sold 16.9 million units in Japan, 21.3 in Europe and 40.3 in North America. The DS sold 33 million units in Japan, 52 in Europe and 57.3 in North America. The Wii sold 12.7 million units in Japan, 33.7 in Europe and 45.3 in North America. Even the sloppy Wii U sold 3.3 million units in Japan, 3.4 in Europe and 6.2 in North America. As of right now North America is leading the charge with Switch sales, the console sold 0.39 million units in Japan, 0.5 in Europe and 0.65 in North America. There are instances when North Americans purchased more Nintendo consoles than the rest of the world combined, like in the case of the N64, and by a large margin. These results are consistent across all Nintendo consoles released worldwide besides the 3DS, and it only missed the mark by a handful of units. So no, if Nintendo loses North American customers, they may as well close shop because Americans are their primary customer base. Making sweeping generalisations without looking into the data is not a very accurate way to determine future performance.
That's not really the point. The point is to better cater to customers, people who bought a whole bunch of consoles by now and would appreciate either games for their existing unit or a smaller Switch revision soon rather than a "cost-cutting" 2DS that's only cheaper by the smallest of margins and is a console they probably already own. I don't think Nintendo *can* lose the NA market as it's their biggest, they're embedded in culture almost as much as Apple is, but they're not really capitalising on it as much as they could. They certainly used to in the 80's and 90's, now not so much. Then again, I suppose making a new revision when they have mountains of leftover parts costs them next to nothing and is a way to off-load them quickly, however it does slow them down in other, more pressing endeavours.
Yes, it's incredibly smart - withholding supply creates artificial demand. They've been using the same strategy for years now, surely you've noticed - it's especially prominent with Amiibos. As for the NES Classic, once again, it's a collectible curio, not a functional system - it never meant to be one. In that sense, it's hard to call it stupid - it was clearly well-received.
All that aside, one look at Nintendo's financial statements shows exactly why they can't function without the North American market. The gross majority of their revenue is made overseas, not in Japan. They're publicly available, so there's really no argument to be had here.
