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BREXIT [Poll] vote!
- Thread starter Phantom64
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Even without the butterfly effect then yeah it would probably send out some decent ripples, though it would not be as world changing as Russia and China teaming up or something.
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It would however change depending upon what happened next.
Three scenarios. In no case do I expect it to become a military dictatorship or anything truly silly. The UK would likely still be a member of the UN and Nato and all sorts of other agreements/groups like that, I am not sure what might change there (the UK is a far bigger player in some of those than the population and military potency might suggest and in some cases it is so as a kind of EU proxy but not really). No country is likely to go bankrupt instantly because of it and nobody is likely to see a massive boon either.
The UK become a somewhat isolationist type country a la Russia of 10 years ago (or indeed Russia prior to this latest round of nonsense), whether by choice or by circumstance/"punishment" I do not know. You then need visas (or maybe visa waiver is continued), immigration is a pain and emigration is the same as people coming from places that aren't white face today (maybe think those moving to the US -- family, money or serious education* in areas somewhere else wants). Trade agreements exist but nowhere near as free and easy as they are today, possibly as a certain penalty for leaving from various other places (France and the US already threatened such things, Germany on the other hand said it would be nice, possibly because it sells a lot of cars to the UK market). Seemingly a wet dream for certain political parties and would be a nightmare for others.
The UK leaves the EU but stays within the EEC/EEA/other things that could technically count as Europe (which are all separate, if they technically still exist). Not sure what I want to point to as a historical example, mainly as the choices for similar models are far smaller or were heading towards EU membership anyway. The extent of this is a bit of sliding scale but who knows. I think this is what most of those campaigning to leave hope will happen but seemingly have not got in place.
It stays, business as usual. Some might remember, most would forget fairly quickly and probably even if the results are tight.
*it is worth remembering that emigration is a major thing for people graduating from UK universities -- science, engineering, maths, medicine, IT and such all see lots of people leave after things have finished or once they have a bit of experience. The EU is a significant component of that. Said same fields also often retire to various places in Europe where I am told a lot of places then get a significant income. If it was then as much of a ball ache as moving to the US is it might change what people go in for as the UK would not likely be able to sustain as many graduates as it makes in the lifestyle to which they wish to become accustomed (IT is rapidly falling and science and engineering in the UK is not a lucrative field for the amount of time you need to sink into it to be able to do it).
Some have pondered what might happen to the other non England countries in the UK. The results of the last election are that Scotland is largely run by the SNP (a political party primarily concerned with Scotland, what with it being in the title), this comes after a very narrow referendum within Scotland on whether to stay in the UK. Depending upon the voter breakdown it might see a call for another referendum, though curiously the EU was a bit hazy on what position Scotland might take during the independence referendum so that might be interesting. I doubt anything major would happen to Wales or Northern Ireland, though it is not impossible that something could happen to Northern Ireland with regards to joining the republic or strengthening ties there. You also have things like Gibraltar (a city sized area on the south of Spain that the UK sort of owns) but that gets complex and we would also have to consider the rest of the former empire, several of which are variously renegotiating or otherwise contemplating their level of ties with the UK and not having the easier access to Europe would factor into that. I doubt if the UK stays and voter lines in Scotland say leave that it would make for another referendum there but the other way around might accelerate things towards another.
It is worth considering also that nobody has ever left the EU, much less a major player within it. For all I mentioned UK internal politics then various other parts of the EU, including said major players, also have their own internal matters to consider and the UK blazing a trail might have knock on effects there. It is not unlike what you see in Quebec for some of those, though possibly with longer and more complex history (people see countries in the EU as old, they are not always and former city states and regions are prominent features today within lots of them). I do not know if it would be quite as huge as a state that matters leaving the US but it would pose similar issues.
The EU itself then. In terms of money in and money out directly (if we are doing secondary effects then we will be here all year and tertiary is too complex to even consider for me) from taxes and whatnot then the EU gets more from than it gives to the UK. Though it is nowhere near enough to massively destabilise things if the UK did stop contributing, though at the same time it would probably see budgets have to be redrawn for reasons other than the UK no longer getting things (I am not sure what things are in agreement to be funded for so many years regardless). The EU does fund a lot of building works and arts and sports and education and other public works that governments also attempt to fund within the UK.
Equally the UK is probably not a major draw for the EU as a concept -- nobody really sits there and thinks "ooh if we have good relations with the EU then we have de facto access to the UK". It might be a perk for some and a reason to go for it but the EU - the UK is a potent entity still. At the same time if the EU can not hold it together and keep the UK in it then it is not going to be a point in its favour. I don't think anywhere would suddenly start speaking to the EU if it was less the UK a la like some places pull out of things if some others decide to call Palestine a state.
For companies (individuals is a very different matter) the UK is not a tax haven for anything really (Monaco and for tech then the Republic of Ireland being the big ones there), nor a particularly useful place for lax laws for finance or environmental laws. It does have a fairly potent financial industry though which would see some things happen. To that end I don't imagine it will see things like what the Republic of Ireland saw a couple of years ago when they were mulling over things and even more attractive places for tech companies decided to pop up. It does however have the biggest stock exchange in terms of market cap in the EU by a considerable way, though volume wise the next European one is greater.
The UK does have a lot of very nice ports*, several of which are largely owned by China and deal with Chinese ships an awful lot, several of which are truly ridiculously huge (post-panamax if you want a term to go searching with) and the EU does not have many things that could otherwise handle them, Germany being notably absent from the list (though with countries on all sites having them and being close to their major cities it is not a big thing). Despite then having to be shipped out afterwards to the mainland the UK is a gateway to Europe for a lot of things. If taxes and tariffs get complicated then the UK becomes a less useful destination and it is doubtful whether the domestic market is big enough to otherwise sustain them in the long term.
*more than any other country in Europe, and a significant percentage of the options in Europe.
I must confess I am not sure to what extent the UK influences EU policy on things. Those that encourage a vote to leave say they want Brussels (by which they mean the EU) to stop controlling UK laws which is a near criminal oversimplification of things as the UK does send people to oversee, debate and vote on what happens. Do also remember that the EU enjoys a somewhat better relationship on the laws front than the US Federal government does to its states. I could point to 10 examples of US states and federal government butting heads from my head, other than this whole migrant thing and maybe the handling of Greece I have not really got much like that for the EU (though said handling is probably the only reasons the referendum in the UK was able to get any real traction). At least for the EU to the UK, some of countries where religion is a bigger thing do occasionally have some issues with some things. Their one nation that is Europe thing they aim for is often poorly executed but seldom to the extent it truly bothers people and most treat it as something of a running joke. The UK potentially not answering to the EU court of human rights would also possibly change things a bit -- a lot of rulings it makes on tech and bioethics are fairly far reaching and not always what the top level UK courts could be trusted to do, though at the same time the ongoing EU vs Google spat showcases the other side of things there. Patents might also be interesting if the UK does not inherently be part of the European patents any more, though that would probably be a minor thing at best.
If it sounds like I mainly looked at internal UK and Eu politics it is because it is where most of it would play out -- the UK is a small island nation, one that acts a bit bigger than its population might dictate compared to elsewhere. It is however one that has very little in the way of natural resources, exportable agriculture, bulk industry or high tech industry you can not get anywhere else (they do exist but none are a major factor in the UK or in their respective markets), it is then what you might call a service economy. There would be ripples and certain things like if you ship something or want to have a bank account somewhere or possibly how it works if you want to go on holiday/travel for business.
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EU: Started as a nice concept that got f*** by greedy politicians and countries (not all)
Brexit: yes or no
I would say NO, i'm pro EU but not the way it's doing now.
And that's all i'm gonna say about it, you can rant on forever about the EU
[EDIT]
1 thing, what @FAST6191 says:
The EU should indeed stop controlling EU independent country laws and rights! (Not just the UK) and start looking at there own European laws (and rights) and fix them first so they do make some sense, before pushing them out!
Brexit: yes or no
I would say NO, i'm pro EU but not the way it's doing now.
And that's all i'm gonna say about it, you can rant on forever about the EU
[EDIT]
1 thing, what @FAST6191 says:
The EU should indeed stop controlling EU independent country laws and rights! (Not just the UK) and start looking at there own European laws (and rights) and fix them first so they do make some sense, before pushing them out!
Last edited by DjoeN,
A while ago, mainly in the run up to the US healthcare stuff, various people were trying to describe how the NHS (UK health service for those unaware) was perceived within the UK. I think my favourite summation ran something like you will be able to find many people to whine, bitch, piss and moan about the NHS all day long, however if you suggesting getting rid of it you would find basically nobody that would back you and you would probably also face massive hostility. It might not be quite the same for the EU, in that those I imagine not inherently for it would probably be indifferent or ignorant of what it does rather than be in considered outright opposition, but many of the same sentiments would likely carry.
I am British... And no I don't want Britain to leave EU.
every economist saying that the UK would be worse off from the UK in the 1st 15 years. Things will improve after..
but fuck that; 15 years from now is too long and too much of life time and maybe prime of my life.
BUT saying that I would want a all the tax loop holes closed which big companies are using to they advantage which is being part of EU..
every economist saying that the UK would be worse off from the UK in the 1st 15 years. Things will improve after..
but fuck that; 15 years from now is too long and too much of life time and maybe prime of my life.
BUT saying that I would want a all the tax loop holes closed which big companies are using to they advantage which is being part of EU..
Last edited by Flame,
Getting sucked into the scare tactics and bullshit I see lol. I'm voting to leave, We will be just fine.
Edit>>
And on the huge plus if we leave, that c**t Cameron will be out of number 10 at long last.
Last edited by TayTayTheKiller,
I know we will be fine. But not having a growing economy means less jobs. I care about jobs.
and scary tactics?
funny I was thinking that is the tactics what Boris uses. "Soon we will be state of united states of europe and our vote will mean nothing in a UK election" who wants to be PM one day.
plus the newspaper "the Sun" wants us to leave...
Last edited by Flame,
I'm undecided, the debate seems to be 99% unsubstantiated soundbites for headlines.
People on both sides saying 'x will happen' but I'm rarely seeing a why.
For me the ideal would just be something saying here's the benefits and here's the issues with verified sources and then let me decide from there.
People on both sides saying 'x will happen' but I'm rarely seeing a why.
For me the ideal would just be something saying here's the benefits and here's the issues with verified sources and then let me decide from there.
D
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I think England should leave. For decades, politicians have blamed their own faults on Europe and took the credit for things Europe did well. Now big-mouths like David Cameron have to deliver the referendum they always threatened to distract from their own fuck-ups. Cameron himself doesn't want to leave, because he knows they're better off in the EU. And he knows that Scottland, Ireland and Wales do not want to leave and would probably start another referendum to secede from the UK and stay in the EU.
Now, I know there's a lot of things wrong in the EU, for instance, I don't like that the commission is decided by the European Governments and not directly by the voters. The lack of solidarity is another point. And I know my own Government (for which I didn't vote for what it's worth) is partly to blame for this.
But England has torpedoed all attempts in the past to change those and many other shortcomings (like a financial transaction tax to stop another clusterfuck in the market) and continues to do so. They got their rebate (Thatcher's famous "I want my money back") and they do the dirty work and quite a lot of spying on behalf of the US Administration inside the EU (which is why the US wants the UK to stay).
I really would like to see England leave, because they would very soon find out what exactly the EU did for them in the past and that their own government lied to them about blame and credit. Banks have already said they would move to another city (like Frankfurt) to stay in the common market and britain doesn't have any other sector to speak of, because the great Thatcher herself killed off all the others to build "The City". There are no medium-sized businesses left in the UK, which is the backbone of all wealthy countries.
Let them leave and find out what the EU is really worth and then beg us to take them back. But this time there won't be a rebate.
Now, I know there's a lot of things wrong in the EU, for instance, I don't like that the commission is decided by the European Governments and not directly by the voters. The lack of solidarity is another point. And I know my own Government (for which I didn't vote for what it's worth) is partly to blame for this.
But England has torpedoed all attempts in the past to change those and many other shortcomings (like a financial transaction tax to stop another clusterfuck in the market) and continues to do so. They got their rebate (Thatcher's famous "I want my money back") and they do the dirty work and quite a lot of spying on behalf of the US Administration inside the EU (which is why the US wants the UK to stay).
I really would like to see England leave, because they would very soon find out what exactly the EU did for them in the past and that their own government lied to them about blame and credit. Banks have already said they would move to another city (like Frankfurt) to stay in the common market and britain doesn't have any other sector to speak of, because the great Thatcher herself killed off all the others to build "The City". There are no medium-sized businesses left in the UK, which is the backbone of all wealthy countries.
Let them leave and find out what the EU is really worth and then beg us to take them back. But this time there won't be a rebate.
Last edited by Uwabami,
D
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It's so nice to see all the fear mongering and bullshit being spewed by the left. And to watch it all unfold without consequence! Its great
You're right, fear-mongering and bullshit is usually reserved for the far right (defend our country in the middle east, saddam's got nukes, putin is satan himself, the gays are evil, foreigners will kill us all).
But thanks for your lesson in European Politics, 13-year old kid from the US!
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Deleted User
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Sure, anytime tomato (your profile picture looks like a tomato) from a foreign country.
It's not your fault you can't recognize vegetables when you see them when all you eat is junk food.
And I'm from a European country directly involved in this situation. Also, I'm sure I know a lot more about US Politics than you do. Go back to your Clan Meeting/Trump Rally... (same thing)
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K
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I love that you assume I support Trump. Don't know where you got that from.
Also don't know why your being so passive aggressive. If you want to say something nothing is stopping you.
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You accused "the left" (which from an US POV should be pretty much everyone in Europe) of "fear-mongering" and "bullshit". Gee, and you call my rebut "passive-aggressive". I wonder how I was able to figure out you're a Trump supporter?
Harder to inject US policy into the EU Commission. Harder to get Top Secret transcripts from the Commission and Parliament. UK as a business partner will be less attractive.
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Deleted User
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I wasn't directing my post to anyone. If your logic is me saying something bad about the left that means me being an automatic Trump supporter, than sign me up. I was just saying there is a lot of fear-mongering on the left. I wasn't looking to rip apart the left. Though I could.
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